【作者】 鲁其辉；

【导师】 朱道立；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 本文以具有需求的不确定性程度高、订货提前期长、销售周期短的季节性产品的供应链作为研究对象，对供应链管理中遇到的三类信息管理问题进行了建模分析：供应链信息共享和协调策略问题、信息更新的供应链协调策略设计问题、基于竞争对手产品信息的协调问题，以提高或最大化供应链系统的期望利润为目标分析供应链协调机制，使供应链成员的决策与供应链整体的目标一致。具体的，本文分析了五个方面的研究问题：(1)．信息共享在季节性供应链中的价值与局限研究。能力约束、排班困难、不确定物料供应、生产工序问题等等因素都有可能引起交付时间的不确定。季节性产品的供应商在努力做到在销售季节开始之前将产品送至零售商的时候，不得不考虑在交付延迟的情况下，对零售商进行补偿。如果供应链共享供应商的交付时间不确定性信息，零售商可以调整订货量，减少销售损失，就有可能提高供应链的整体利润。文中分析指出在交付时间不确定性程度大时，信息共享能提高供应链绩效改进的可能性，但不一定能提高供应链的整体绩效。在含有交付时间不确定性的供应链中信息共享有价值但有一定的局限性。(2)．协调策略在季节性供应链研究中的价值研究。在含有交付时间不确定性的季节性产品供应链中引入协调策略，供应链成员在自动执行的条件下行动，能使供应链达到整体绩效最大化，并且对供应链的利润进行合理分配。文中分析指出，存在能协调管理这种含有交付时间不确定性的供应链策略，协调策略能有效的弥补信息共享的局限性，提高供应链的整体绩效。当交付时间不确定性程度越大时，协调策略的价值变小，市场不确定性程度越高时，协调策略的价值越大。(3)．预测信息更新的供应链的协调策略研究。由于零售商可以通过缩短订货提前期来更新预测信息，从而提高市场需求预测的精度，研究者设计了应用这种思想的快速反应供应链系统，但以往研究已经发现，快速反应协调策略并不总是使供应链双方的利润同时提高，实践调查也发现只有在低的服务水平下才能使两者利润同时提高，因而在采用快速策略的时候需要提出相应的辅助方法。本文提出在快速反应供应链系统中引入补偿策略的协调方法，研究改进快速反应系统的绩效提高的条件，指出补偿策略能在一定条件下改进含有快速反应策略的供应链。(4)．供应链中市场信息与订货时间的协调研究。在季节性产品供应链中，因为延长订货提前期能使供应商的生产物流等费用大大降低，供应商往往通过价格折扣来吸引零售商提前订货。产品的零售商必须在批发价折扣中的利益和在差的需求信息条件下订货决策带来的风险损失之间进行权衡。本文研究含有提前订货策略的供应链模型，分析零售商的订货量和订货时间的决策方法，分析在季节性产品供应链中引入提前订货策略的价值。(5)．基于竞争对手产品信息的供应链协调研究。在有多产品竞争的市场中，产品零售商首先需要了解每个产品在市场中的地位和市场份额，然后通过了解市场需求总量和销售支出情况来决定产品的供应数量，以达到利润的最大化的目标。怎样得到最优的供货量问题是现代库存管理的基础性问题之一。本文通过引进产品特征描述和消费者一般支出的概念，给出一种市场份额的分析方法和市场份额的一些数学性质及经济特点。然后分析多产品竞争环境中零售商的最优供货决策问题。通过研究在产品的某些特征描述改变的条件下零售商最优供货量、期望利润和市场利润总量的敏感性分析，指出在基于竞争对手产品信息的供应链中设计产品的价格和其他特征的协调机制。供应链管理作为企业面对信息技术不断发展和市场急剧变化的情况而兴起的新型管理模式，是企业适应竞争越来越激烈的经营环境，获取竞争优势，提高企业的竞争力的重要手段之一，而其中关于供应链的信息问题管理是关键之一。本文从供应链协调管理的角度来研究基于信息的供应链管理问题，对供应链管理实践有一定的理论指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this doctoral dissertation, we consider the supply chains of the seasonal products with high uncertainty of demand and long order lead time and short sale period. By means of modeling, three kinds of information management problem in supply chain management are analyzed: information sharing and coordination problem; supply chain coordination strategy design with information updating; coordination problem based on competitor’s product information. The coordination mechanism of supply chain is improving or maximizing the whole performance of supply chain. Five problems were analyzed, see in the following:1). Research on investigating valuation and limitation of information sharing in seasonal supply chain. Uncertain delivery times occur due to a number of different causes, including capacity constrains, scheduling difficulties, uncertain material supplies and production processes problems. Suppliers of seasonal products aim to deliver the products before the start of the selling period, and compensate to buyers if the delivery is late. If supplier’s private information about delivery lead-time is shared in the supply chain, then retailer can adjust her order quantity to decrease the sale lost. The supply chain performance would be improved with information sharing. We point out that information sharing can increase the probability of performance of supply chain when the uncertainty of delivery time is larger. But it isn’t sure that supply chain performance improving with information sharing. There exist valuation and limitation of information sharing in the supply chain with uncertainty of delivery time.2). Research on the valuation of coordination strategy in seasonal supply chain. When we introduce some kinds of coordination contract to the seasonal products supply chain with uncertainty in delivery lead time, the optimal supply chain performance would arrive. This kind of coordination contract can allocate the supply chain profits within its members and these actions are self-executives. We point out that there exist supply chain contracts which can coordination this kind of supply chain with delivery uncertainty. The coordination contracts can efficiently get rid of the limits of information sharing and improve the performance of supply chain management. When the degree of uncertainty of delivery lead time is larger, the values of coordination contracts are less. When the degree of uncertainty of market demand is larger, the valuesof coordination contracts are greater.3). Research on coordination contract designing in information updating supply chain. With long lead-time, the wide impact of order decision is very inaccurate. Quick Response strategy consists of dealing with this problem and enables orders to be placed closed to the start of the selling season. Retailers can adjust their order quality after gathered more and better demand information. But quick response strategy may not always make both manufacturers and retailer’s benefits better. Under low service levels QR improves both retailer and manufacturer profits, but we would not observe such lower service levels in practice. The original propose of this paper is to investigate the return polices in the supply chain system with QR strategy. Under some condition, return policies will make QR system Pareto improving.4). Research on coordination of market information and ordering time in supply chain. In the seasonal products supply chain, supplier frequently encourage retailer to order early, for more longer order lead time lower production and logistics costs. The retailer must trade off lower procurement costs against the expense of making ordering decisions with worse information about demand. A model is developed that quantifies the benefits to the supply chain with early order strategies. We analyzed the solving method to get optimal order quantity and order time and the valuation of early order strategy in seasonal product supply chain.5). Research on supply chain coordination with competitors’ product information. In a multi-product competition market, the retailers of products at first must know the state and the market shares of the products in the markets, then decide the quantities of product through analysis the market and the revenue to gain the maximum profits. It is the fundamental problem in the market inventory management that how to gain the optimal order quantity. After introducing the concepts of product characterization description and customer general cost, we give a method of analyzing market share and some mathematical properties of market share. Then we give the sensitive analysis and economic explanations of retailers’ optimal ordering quantity, optimal expected profits and total profit in the market. And at last we consider the coordination mechanism of designing the production characterization and pricing in the supply chain with information of competitor’s products information.The development of information technology gives the opportunity of increasingthe efficiency of corporation and incurring the transformation of theory of corporation management. Supply chain management becomes an innovative management module and theory of management. Because the members of supply chain always belong to different corporations, the coordination or collaboration of supply chain is an important module of improving of competition of corporations. The coordination theory of supply chain becomes to a mostly important theory. In this dissertation, we considered the information management of supply chain with the supply chain coordination management theory.更多还原