【作者】 马涛；

【导师】 陈家宽；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 生态学， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 国际贸易自由化程度的不断提高是一个不可抗拒的历史趋势。已经有一些证据表明，发达国家或地区通过贸易从其它地方进口自然资源和环境服务，从而导致资源从发展中国家向发达国家转移，而污染则从发达国家向发展中国家转移。国际贸易发展到今天已经不再是最初意义上的物物交换，生态资本和环境空间的交换越来越受到发达国家的重视。电子垃圾贸易、污染性行业转移、初级产品跨国采购，都在国际贸易的旗帜下有条不紊地进行着。中国近年来的出口导向型经济发展对于提高GDP增长起到了很大作用，全球化在给中国带来巨大经济利益的同时，也带来了一些负面的影响，可能潜伏着一些不易被人们察觉的危机。贸易产品的生产需要土地、水、能源、矿产、木材等生态要素，同时会排放出各种污染性的废物，造成不同程度的环境污染，国际贸易的背后实际上隐含着生态要素的流动。例如，鄂尔多斯羊毛衫出口的是中国的草地资源，这些草原正面临荒漠化的严重威胁；电解铝出口的是电，这些电是中国承担巨大生态风险修建大坝或是由对酸雨和全球变暖不能推卸责任的火电站生产出来的；粮食出口的是中国滥施农药化肥的土地和贫瘠的水资源；焦炭出口的是中国的环境承载力，而自己则饱受污水、废气和焦油等污染物之苦。以上这些都是产品在生产过程中的生态成本或是环境成本，很多都是游离在价格体系外，由出口国自己承担。生态经济学的研究已经表明，只用货币形式来评价国际贸易是相当片面的，经济上的贸易顺差也许带来了生态资本上的亏损，评价贸易的可持续发展需要更多从生态要素角度来考虑。中国作为发展中国家的领头羊，在对外贸易蓬勃发展的历史时期，在全球生态要素流动中占据了什么样的位置?是受到其他国家的生态剥削，还是在全球化中享受了贸易带来的生态利益?贸易结构与生态要素流动有什么关系?如何从生态要素禀赋的角度评价贸易的可持续性和构建可持续贸易体系?本论文针对以上问题，从物质流、体现能、虚拟水、污染流等角度，定量分析了中国对外贸易中的各种生态要素流，研究了中国在国际生态要素贸易中所处的位置及起到的作用，并对中国构建可持续贸易体系提出了自己的看法。主要研究结果如下：(1)利用1980-2002年《中国对外经济贸易年鉴》的数据，按照贸易区域和产品类型进行归并，计算了1950-2001年中国初级产品对外贸易中的物质流。研究表明，用货币流和物质流衡量国际贸易存在很大差异，在进行可持续贸易研究中后者更为重要。上世纪80年代以来，中国初级产品净出口表现出一条倒U型曲线。从贸易结构的角度来看，表明中国已经完成了经济转型，进入了资源海外扩张时期，中国开始从世界其他地区净进口生态资本。中国同世界6大洲之间的初级产品贸易结构存在很大差异，主要从亚洲、大洋洲、拉丁美洲和非洲进口初级产品，而出口主要面向亚洲和欧洲。初级产品的净进口主要来自大洋洲，非洲和拉丁美洲。(2)利用《中国统计年鉴》的工业产出数据、贸易数据，《中国能源统计年鉴》的部门能源消耗数据以及1997年的全国投入产出表，分析了中国对外贸易中的体现能。研究表明，中国1994-2001年的贸易结构是有利于国内的能源保护的。出口产品的能源密度要小于进口产品的能源密度。近几年，中国虽然存在贸易顺差，但实际上净进口了体现能。体现能的进口量和真实能源的进口量具有相同的数量级，对于国内能源需求的供给效应不容忽视。体现能可以作为一个很好的指标来区分在一个国家内消耗的能源和被一个国家消耗的能源，判断该国对于全球变暖的实际责任。(3)利用《中国海关统计年鉴》的数据和国际上虚拟水的通用计算方法，计算了中国1996-2002年间粮食对外贸易中的虚拟水量。研究表明：中国通过粮食贸易净进口了大量的虚拟水，节约了国内的水资源，减轻了粮食生产地区的水短缺压力，而且有利于提高全球水资源的使用效率。虽然通过粮食贸易进口虚拟水不能完全解决中国的水危机，可能引发粮食安全问题、外来种入侵、转基因生物安全及其他社会经济问题，但是虚拟水的概念给我们理解粮食贸易和调水工程提供了全新的角度。(4)从“污染足迹”的概念出发，利用《中国统计年鉴》的工业部门产出和污染排放数据以及投入产出分析方法，分析了国内工业部门的污染状况，核算了1994-2001年中国工业产品对外贸易中的污染成本、收益及部门来源。研究表明：中国工业产品出口的污染密度要小于进口的污染密度，这种贸易结构有利于国内的环境保护。1999-2001年，中国虽然存在工业产品贸易顺差，实际上却向国外转移了污染足迹。其中，化学工业的净进口帮助中国转移了最多的污染足迹，而污染足迹的流入则主要来自纺织业和机械工业的净出口。以上研究表明，中国近年来的对外贸易在获得了经济收益的同时也获得了各种生态利益，包括净进口了初级产品、体现能、虚拟水，净出口了污染足迹，对于国内的可持续发展起到了促进作用。中国在对外贸易中获得了生态利益，不仅缓解了自身的生态压力，还可以提高全球资源的利用效率。对外贸易中生态要素流的研究，可以帮助辨识在一个国家内消耗的环境要素和被这个国家消耗的环境要素，判别该国实际的生态责任，在今后的环境外交谈判中将会发挥重要作用。该研究不仅为从生态经济学角度评价国际贸易提供了新思路和新方法，对于我国审视和调整贸易政策和环境政策也有很大的参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 The development of international trade liberalization has become an irresistible historical trend. Some evidences have showed that developed countries or regions import natural resources and environmental services which results in resources transfer from developing countries to developed ones while pollutants flow in the reverse direction. Now international trade is not only to barter one thing for another. Ecological capital and environmental space have been paid more attention. Electric rubbish trades, high pollution indust\ries migrate, transnational purchase of primary products and so on are all under the name of international trade. In recent years, export-oriented economy of China has played a great role in increasing GDP. The globalization not only brings great economic interests to China, but also brings many negative effects and crisis which is not easy to be conscious. The production process of trade goods needs lands, water, energy, minerals, woods and other ecological elements and at the same time it emits kinds of waste materials and causes environmental pollution. Actually there exist ecological flows behind international trade. For example, Erdos cashmere exports grasslands which are facing the threat of serious desertification. Electrolytic aluminum exports electricity which is come from big dam with great ecological risks or thermal power station which is responsible for acid rain and global warming. Grains exports lands which are damaged by pesticides and fertilizers, and water which is rarer in China. Coke exports environmental capability while China bears sewage, waste gas, tar and other pollutants. These are all ecological costs or environmental costs in products which are out of the price system and are shouldered by the exporting country. The study of ecological economics has showed that it is quite unilaterally to evaluate the international trade from monetary term. A favorable balance of trade maybe brings the loss in ecological capital. It is necessary to evaluate the sustainability of trade from the point of view of ecological elements.As a leader of developing countries and with a vigorous development of international trade, what role does China play in global ecological elements flow? Does China endure the ecological exploit of other countries or get ecological benefits of trade from globalization? What is the relationship between trade structure and ecological elements flow? How to evaluate the sustainability of trade and construct a sustainable trade system from the view of ecological endowment? In accordance with these questions, we quantitatively analyzed various ecological elements flow--material flow, embodied energy, virtual water and pollution footprint, discussed the location and role of China in international ecological elements trade and brought up some suggestions about the construction of sustainable trade in China. The main research results are as follows:1. With the data from Almanac of China’s Foreign Economic Relations and Trade, we analyzed the material flow in primary commodity trade of China from 1950 to 2001 according to trade regions and product types. The result shows that: 1) there is a great difference in measuring international trade with money flow and material flow. Material flow is more important in the research of sustainable trade. 2) Since 1980s, the net import of primary products in China showed an inverse U curve. It states clearly that from the point of view of trade structure, China has completed economical transformation and got into the period of resource expansion. China net imported ecological capital from other countries of the world. 3) The trade structures between China and six continents were different. China mainly imported primary products from Asia, Oceania, Latin America and Africa while exports to Asia and Europe. Most of the net imported primary commodities came from Oceania, Africa and Latin America.2. With the trade data and industry output data from China Statistical Yearbook, energy consumption data from China Energy Statistical Yearbook and Input-Output Table of China (1997), embodied energy in goods trade of China from 1994-2001 was estimated. Some conclusions can be drawn from the study: 1) the trade structure of China in this period is beneficial for domestic energy conservation. The average energy intensity of imports was always higher than that of exports. As a trade surplus country, China actually net imported embodied energy in recent several years. 2) The net import volume of embodied energy was of the same order of magnitude as that of real energy and the energy supply effect of embodied energy trade to domestic demand should not be neglected. 3) The study of embodied energy trade is important for us to distinguish energy consumption in a country and by a country, which will provide an efficient method to judge a country’s responsibility for global warming.3. With the data from China Customs Statistics Yearbook and the common calculate method of virtual water, the volume of virtual water in China’s grains trade from 1996 to 2002 was calculated, the results show that China imported considerable quantities of virtual water, saved domestic water resources, released the pressure to grains production areas of China and contributed to the increase of global waterefficiency. Although importing virtual water through grains trade can’t completely resolve the water crisis of China which maybe cause food security, biological invasions, GM food safety and other social and economic issues, the concept of virtual water can give us a new point of view to understand grains trade and water transfer project.4. From the concept of pollution footprint, we used industrial output and pollution data from China Statistical Yearbook and Input-Output Analysis to analyze the pollution intensity of industrial sectors and calculated the pollution costs and benefits of industrial products trade of China from 1994 to 2001. Some conclusions can be drawn from the study: 1) the pollution intensity of exports was lower than that of imports in industrial products trade of China, which is beneficial to domestic environmental protection. 2) China transferred pollution footprint overseas although with a trade plus in industrial products from 1999 to 2001. 3) The most significant sector which net exported pollution footprint was Chemical Industry and those of net imports were Textile Industry and Machinery Industry. The study is helpful for distinguishing the emission responsibility of a country and giving suggestions to environmental and trade policy decisions.All above shows that China not only obtains economic benefits but also kinds of ecological benefits in recent foreign trade. China net imported primary products, embodied energy, virtual water and net exported pollution footprint, which is beneficial for promoting domestic sustainable development. Through trade, China not only released the pressure to domestic ecological environment but also increased global resource use efficiency. The study of ecological elements flow in international trade can help us distinguish environmental elements consumption in a country and by a country and judge a country’s ecological responsibility. It can also play great roles in future environmental negotiations. The study not only provides a new method framework to evaluate international trade from the point of view of ecological economics but also has great reference value for government to rethink and adjust trade and environmental policy.更多还原