【作者】 夏忠；

【导师】 黄强；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2007， 博士

【副题名】以黄河流域为例

【摘要】 配置中存在的冲突问题,并推荐了有效的、适于可持续发展的流域水资源配置模式。以黄河流域为例,建立了考虑补偿的黄河流域水资源合理配置的仿真模型,并对生成的方案集进行了计算和评价,给出了流域水资源合理配置的方案和实施措施、政策以及相关建议。论文主要研究内容和取得的成果如下:(1)采用博弈论分析了流域水资源配置的冲突问题,运用递进的思想提出了四种不同的配置模式:“公地悲剧”模式、流域管理机构控制模式、补偿机制下的流域管理模式和“自律”模式。通过建立博弈矩阵,对这四种不同的流域水资源配置模式分别进行了分析和讨论,提出补偿机制下的流域机构统一管理模式是目前有效的配置模式,而“自律”模式是解决水资源短缺困境的有效途径。(2)针对有效的水资源配置模式,利用F?H冲突分析方法建立了冲突分析模型。模型中将流域管理机构、上游地区、中下游地区作为三个局中人,在实施两种策略——激励政策和控制政策的情况下,通过对局中人的偏好向量和结局进行稳定性分析,从18个可选策略中优化得到2种均衡结局:完全合作结局和部分合作结局,这为水资源合理配置提供了宏观策略支撑。(3)为了达到流域水资源统一配置的目标,按照流域水资源综合利用和可持续发展的原则,以黄河流域为例,建立了黄河流域水资源合理配置的仿真模型。通过采取工程和非工程等不同的配置措施,得到黄河流域2010规划水平年的19个水资源合理配置方案。(4)在考虑风险因素的基础上,采取了两种不同的方法对黄河流域水资源合理配置方案进行了综合评价,两种方法分别是:基于蒙特卡罗~神经网络模拟模型的风险估计模型和基于泛系观控理论的风险模型。两种方法推荐的2010规划水平年的方案是一致的,均为方案19“中东线置换30亿m3+工业节水10%+农业节水10%+污水资源化”,证明两种考虑风险的评价方法都是有效合理的。(5)通过分析现有政策体制下和政策改进后的流域水资源配置的经济效应,说明要想使流域配置实现主体利益的帕累托改进,即达到绝对合作利益空间分布区,政府必须进行一定的政策改进以适应新的流域水资源配置模式。将政策改进过程视为难度自增殖系统,通过政策改进旋进路径的分析表明,政策的改进过程是一个螺旋上升的过程,不可能一蹴而就。最后提出了一些流域水资源配置的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resources rational distribution is an effective measure to resolve water shortage problem of our country facing to now and in future. From origin and character of water resources distribution, comflict problems in water resources distribution are analyzed by applying correlation theories of economics and water resources, sustainable development water resources distribution mode is recommended. Case as the Yellow River watershed, simulation model of water resources rational distribution based on compensation is established. Distribution schemes are calculated and evaluated. Water resources rational distribution watershed scheme, measures, policies and some suggests are put forward. The main research content and results are as follows:(1)By appling game theory, water resources distribution comflict problems are analyzed and four different distribution modes are put forward, i.e.“Public Terra Tragedy”mode, watershed administer institution control mode, watershed institution management mode based on compensation mechanism and the self-constrain mode. The game matrix is put forward to analyse and discuss the four water resources distribution modes and it tests watershed institution management mode based on compensation mechanism is the most effective distribution mode, and the self-constrain mode is effective approach to solve water shortage problem.(2)Aimed at rational water resources distribution mode, conflict model isestablished by using the conflict analysis techniques of Fraser and Hipel (F-H), in which there are three sides concerned, i.e. the watershed institute, the upstream district and the downstream district. By considering two strategies carried out by watershed institute: prompting policy and control policy, two out of 18 possible outcomes, the partly cooperative outcome and the fully cooperative one are optimized by analysing the preferences of each side and the stability of their outcome. It provides macroscopical strategy support for water resources rational distribution.(3)In order to achieve the objective of water resources unified distribution, according to the principle of water resources integrated use and sustainable development, cased as the Yellow River watershed, water resources rational distribution simulation model is established. Different distribution measures, including project and non-project measures are adopted to obtain 19 water resources rational distribution schemes in 2010 water level year of the Yellow River watershed.(4)Based on considering risk factors, two different methods are adopted to evaluate water resources rational distribution schemes of the Yellow River watershed. They are risk estimating model based on Monte-Carlo-Neural-Network (MC-NN) simulation and risk model based on panasystems observation-control theory. Recommended scheme of two methods is accordant, that is the project 19. It proves the two methods are effective and rational.(5)By analysing economy effect of water resources distribution under policy in exsistence and after improving, it is showed that the government must improve some policy to be suit to new water resources distribution mode in order to achieve benefit Pareto improving of watershed distribution main body, that is meet absolute cooperation benefit. Regarded policy improving course as the difficulty self- multiplication system, it shows it is a spiral course by analysing spiral route of policy improving course, and at last some policies and suggests of water resources distribution are put forward.更多还原