【作者】 赵楠；

【导师】 曾五一；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 统计学， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 金融发展是金融体系动态发展变化的一个综合过程,它通过金融资产的增长、金融结构的优化和金融工具的创新,不断改善金融中介机构和金融市场的运作效率,实现金融组织、金融体系与金融功能的演进,从而促进投资数量和规模的扩张,优化投资环境,提高资源的配置效率。从一国内部各地区层面展开的地区金融发展实证研究,是一个全新的研究视角,不仅可以丰富金融发展理论的内涵,为理论发展提供更多经验证据的支持,而且能为区域经济规划和各地区宏观经济管理提供重要参考。本文从地区金融发展的视角,进行固定资产投资实证研究。实证研究分成两个步骤进行:一是构建一系列统计指标进行描述性分析,测度地区金融发展、地区投资发展水平、金融体系运行效率和投资效率;二是使用面板单位根检验、面板协整检验和动态面板数据模型,分析各种地区金融发展变量与各类区域投资变量的相互关系和作用力度。通过研究,本文得到的主要结论如下:中国各地区的金融体系正在经历一个快速发展的阶段,各地区金融业在数量规模上取得了长足的进步,但我国金融体系的运行效率仍然偏低。中国各地区的经济增长体现出明显的投资拉动特征。但是,各地区投资效率并没有随着经济发展的步伐而显著提高。中国各地区金融体系对各地区投资、资本形成的发展施加了重要的正向影响,但是并没有发现地区金融发展改善投资效率的明显证据。各类金融机构贷款对各类投资的影响力度,在不同区域间存在差异,呈现出由东向西依次递增的态势。东部地区固定资产投资的资金来源更加多元化,更加注重内源性融资、引进外资等其他融资方式;西部地区投资得到了更多政策性支持。我国各地区各项投资与本地正规金融机构吸纳存款的活动,是彼此协调、长期均衡变动的,说明我国各地区金融机构将金融资源(主要是各项存款)转化为固定资产投资的运行机制,总体而言比较顺畅;同时,也说明投资受到本地储蓄影响较大,暗示区域之间的跨区域资本流动受到限制,这尤其以西部地区为甚。从中观、短期看,我国各地区的资本形成更加依赖于金融机构贷款的支持。扣除盈利因素以外的行业自发投资冲动因素也对资本形成构成重要影响,而行业赢利性因素、政府支持意愿因素对其影响较低。本文主要在以下几个方面做了一些具有创新性的研究尝试:1.把投资、投资效率和资本形成纳入中国金融发展,特别是纳入到中国各.地.区.金融发展的框架体系中进行研究,通过测度我国不同区域金融机构储蓄和信贷对于投资的影响力度,分析金融发展与投资之间的关系。2.构建了大量统计指标,在区域层面对我国各地区金融发展水平、金融体系运行效率、投资水平和投资效率进行纵向与横向分析,研究其规模、现状和时间趋势。3.进行了细致的区域间对比分析。本文采用省际年度宏观基础数据,从全国、三大区域(即东部、中部和西部)、七大经济带、各省四个视角分析金融体系对投资影响的长期趋势;在此基础上,还引入每个省36个行业的月度数据,分析短期内金融体系对一个省内部各行业资本形成的影响因素,综合考察地区金融发展与投资的内在关系,详细分析区域之间的差异及其成因。4.除实证内容有所创新外,本文在实证研究方法上也有所突破。借鉴国外计量经济研究的前沿成果,引入面板单位根检验、Pedroni面板协整检验、FMOLS协整方程估计和基于GMM的动态面板数据估计方法,研究各地区非平稳的金融因素变量与投资因素变量间关系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Financial development is an integrated process which involved financial system dynamic change. It can enhance operating efficiency of financial intermediaries and financial markets, then improve investment environment, optimize capital allocation.The empirical analysis on regional financial development is a new researching angle which can provide more evidences for theory evolving. Furthermore, this kind of empirical research can also provide constructive suggestions for regional planning and macroeconomic management.This dissertation focused on the empirical analysis on Chinese investments in fixed assets through the view of regional financial development. Researching is composed of two parts, one is to construct a series of indicators of descriptive analysis which can measure Chinese regional financial development, efficiency of financial system and investments, and another is to analyze the relationship between China regional financial development and regional investment. The second part is implemented by using panel data models, such as panel unit root tests, Pedroni panel cointegration test and FMOLS estimation, dynamic panel data of GMM estimation.The conclusion of empirical analysis is as follows:Chinese financial system is experiencing speedy increase, regional financial intermediaries and financial markets make rapid progress, however, the efficiency of financial system is still low.Chinese regional investments contribute greatly to regional economic growth, but the efficiency of investments does not make any significant improvements.Chinese financial system contributes to regional investment and capital formation, but it does not boost the enhancement of regional investment efficiency.In the west of China, there are more evidences of the supporting to investments from financial system than in the east of China. Otherwise, in the east of China, the fund sources of investment in fixed assets are diversified, which have more shares of endogenous financing and foreign investment.The relationship between regional investment and saving absorbed by local financial intermediaries is consistent, which implies the transmission mechanism of financial resource to fixed assets is stable. On the other hand, it also implies the regional capital segmentation, especially in the west of China.In the short time, Chinese regional capital formation relies more on financial factor than on other factors. Most provinces have a self-constraint investment mechanism. The financial influences on the fix capital formation between regions or provinces are different, which also imply there might exist regional capital segmentation in China.This dissertation has following contributions:I. By researching investment, efficiency of investment and capital formation in the frame of Chinese regional financial development, this dissertation measured the degree of influence which regional financial intermediaries’saving and loan produced on regional investment.II. Constructing a series of statistical indicators, this dissertation measured the level of Chinese regional financial development and investment, efficiency of financial system and investment, and made horizontal and vertical analysis in a local view.III. Based on the integrated macro and micro researching angel, this dissertation made regional comparisons in details. On one hand, macro level research was carried out by using yearly inter-provincial data; on the other hand, micro level research was carried out by using monthly intra-provincial data which contained of 36 industries in every province.IV. This dissertation also applied a series of new econometric methods, which contained of panel data unit root test, Pedroni panel data cointegration test, group mean Fully Modified OLS estimation and dynamic panel data model based on GMM estimation.更多还原