【作者】 张杨；

【导师】 黄庆；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 伴着信息时代的到来，市场竞争更加剧烈，时间价值也日益提升。准时服务已经成为现代企业角逐市场的重要手段，体现着企业的服务水平，标志着企业的市场竞争能力。但同时，实现准时服务的城市交通环境却是不确定的：时变的交通流量，偶发的交通事故，突发的交通拥挤，导致了车辆在路段上随机的旅行时间。在多起点、多迄点的不确定城市交通环境中，某一起、迄点对之间只存在随机最优路径，不同行为主体在选择随机最优路径时会表现不同的行为特征，出行者的择路行为(包括路径选择和出行时间选择)会随着出行目的、约束时间、出行者的经验、对路网络的熟悉程度以及旅行时间的不确定程度而变化。作为实现交通出行合理化的重要内容和手段，研究不确定环境下车辆择路行为有助于减少城市交通捌挤，节约社会能源，保护城市环境，降低出行成本，提高运作效率，全面提高城市交通出行的满意度。由于车辆随机路径问题将运筹学理论与生产实践紧密地结合在一起，近几十年取得了很多成果，但到目前为止，将车辆随机路径选择问题与不确定环境下人们的决策行为相结合的研究仍然很少，许多不尽人意的地方有待于进一步完善和改进。本文较深入地研究了不确定环境下的一系列车辆路径选择行为问题。 论文的主要研究内容如下： 第1章，在对大量相关文献进行总结提炼的基础上，分别回顾了国内、外对车辆路径选择行为问题的研究成果，并指出了已有车辆路径选择行为问题研究中存在的不足和潜在的研究领域。 第2章，基于出行成本最小化的假设，根据不确定环境中人们出行时的路径选择行为过程，建立了OD对间任意中间节点至迄点的理想阻抗的动态用户最优分配的变分不等式模型，给出了求解该问题的嵌套对角化算法。对理想阻抗与瞬时阻抗的动态用户最优分配模型进行了比较：在理想动态用户最优状态下，同一OD对间同时出发、选择不同路径的出行者，其旅行时间相等而且最小。在瞬时动态用户最优状态下，同一OD对间同时出发、选择不同路径的出行者，其旅行时间可能不同。并用一个数值算例比较了这两类模型的差别。 第3章，随机、时变的交通流分布，偶发的交通事故等因素导致了路径随机的车辆旅行时间，也决定了现实城市交通网络中只存在随机最短路。这使得人们的决策行为变得极其复杂而无法找到最优路径。实证研究发现：人们在城市交通中的车辆择路行为符合展望理论提出的人们在不确定环境下的决策行为特征：①参考点依赖原则；②损失规避原则(对损失的规避程度大于对同等收益量的追求更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increasing intensification of market competition at the information age, the value of time is also increased. Many enterprises realize that punctual serveice is an important measure to improve the ability of market competition, which indicates the level of serveice. On the contrary, the condition of transportation in urban is uncertainty, such as time-dependent traffic flow, occasionally happened incident, and unexpected traffic jam. All these facts decide travel time on route is radom. There only exists stochastic shortest route (SSR) from the origin to the destination in the urban taffic networks with many origins and many destinations. So, different travelers will have different behaviors in routing choice which, including route choice and departure time choice, will change with travel importance, time to be used for route, traveler’s familiarity to the networks and the range of travel time. As an important approach to realize travel rationalization, research on vehicle routing choice under uncertainty will decrease traffic jam, protect urban envornment, reduce travel cost, improve operation efficiency and enhance customer satisfaction comprehensively. Since SSR problem tightly connect theory of Operations Research with practice of production, which was named as one of the most successful areas in Operations Research in the past decades. Up to the date, few researchs have been made on the connection between SSR choice and travelers’ behaviors in urban traffic under uncertainty, and many dissatisfactory items await amelioration and modification. In this dissertation, a series of vehicle routing choice under uncertainty are analyzed thoroughly.The main contents of this dissertation are as follows:In chapter 1, based on summarizing relative references, we retrospecte domestic and foreign research on vehicle routing choice, point out shortcomings of research on this problem and find some potential areas of research.hi chapter 2, with assumption of travel cost minimized, the dynamic user optimal (DUO) assignment models based on the ideal and the instantaneous impedance is compared. According to the travelers’ routing behavior, this paper formulates an ideal DUO assignment model using the variational inequality approach. The presented model complies with the DUO equilibrium condition, in which for each origin- destination更多还原