【作者】 吴新燕；

【导师】 王绍玉； 顾建华；

【作者基本信息】 中国地震局地球物理研究所 ， 固体地球物理学， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 城市作为巨大的承灾体，正在日益成为国际社会防灾减灾的中心和重点。减轻地震风险、提高我国城市地震灾害管理能力成为非常现实并且具有相当挑战性的问题。做好震前的准备工作是提高风险管理水平、保证震后应急工作有效性的重要因素。而进行地震应急准备能力的综合评价正是衡量这些准备工作是否充分有效的重要手段。并且，为了最大限度地减轻未来地震损失，一个城市的地震应急准备状况还应当与其地震风险的高低存在正相关关系，即地震危险性越高、建筑物易损性越高、人口和经济密度越大，所需的地震应急准备状况也应当越好。因此，依据城市的地震风险水平，研究构建城市地震应急准备能力的评价体系，并与地震风险水平紧密结合，对于提高震后应急工作效率，减轻人员伤亡和经济损失具有一定的现实意义。 本文在充分利用目前国内外灾害应急能力研究成果的基础上，通过建立多级评价指标体系和运用多层次模糊综合评价模型来对城市地震应急准备能力作出具体的综合评判。本文主要工作可概括如下： 首先，提出了城市地震应急准备能力的概念，在建立城市地震应急准备能力指标体系方面，提出了影响地震应急准备能力的六大非工程性要素，即组织保障、应急预案、震情和灾情速报、指挥技术系统、资源保障和社会动员能力，并在此基础上列出了这六大要素的多个二级指标和三级指标，继而构建了城市地震应急准备能力评价体系的框架。 其次，在确定评价体系中各个指标的理想值或评价标准时，将这些指标分为两类：一类是与人员伤亡和无家可归人员有直接联系的因素，主要存在于资源保障中；另一类是与人员伤亡和无家可归人员无直接关系的因素，主要存在于除资源保障外的其他因素中。为此，采用综合了人口密度、建筑物易损性和地震危险性等因素的人员伤亡预测法，计算出基本烈度下人员伤亡、无家可归人数，并以此为基础，确定了第一类指标的理想值；进而结合大量的国内外相关政策、法规及文献，确定出第二类指标的评价标准，从而架起了连接地震风险和应急准备能力评价的桥梁。在确定各级指标的权重时，利用了层次分析法确定出六大因素的权重，并采用等权处理法确立了二级和三级指标的权重。然后利用多层次模糊综合评判法，建立起城市地震应急准备能力的综合评价模型，初步形成了可用于更多还原

【Abstract】 As a huge exposure, City is increasingly becoming a centre of disaster prevention among international community. Mitigating urban earthquake disaster risk and improving earthquake disaster management capability is a realistic and challenging issue. Doing well preparing work before earthquake strikes is an important factor for advancing level of risk management and ensuring validity of post-disaster emergency. Evaluating earthquake emergency readiness capability is just a significant measure for weighing validity of such preparing work. Also, for the sake of furthest mitigating the loss of future earthquake, positive correlativity should exist between the earthquake emergency readiness capability and earthquake risk in a certain city. That is, the higher earthquake hazard is, the higher vulnerability of building is, the greater population and economy density is, the earthquake emergency readiness capability should be stronger. According to certain urban earthquake risk, researching evaluation system of earthquake emergency readiness capability which is connected with earthquake risk has realistic meaning for enhancing operations efficiency during emergency and mitigating casualty and economic loss.Based upon the current research production on disaster emergency capability, earthquake emergency readiness capability is judged by a multi-level index evaluation system and integrated multilayer fuzzy judgment model. This paper includes the following several aspects:At first, the concept of urban earthquake emergency readiness capability is expounded. When index system of urban earthquake emergency readiness is set up, six elements affecting the capability are proposed—organization system, emergency planning, the situation of earthquake and disaster, command technology, resource and community mobilization. Upon on these elements, a framework of evaluation system including a lot of specific indexes is developed.Secondly, as the best value of every index in the system is being confirmed, these indexes are divided into two sorts: some are connected with the number of casualty and the homeless, which exist in assurance of resource the others are not.更多还原