【作者】 刘艳琼；

【导师】 沈永平； 陈英武；

【作者基本信息】 国防科学技术大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 在武器装备研制活动中，风险因子、风险事件非常繁多，风险因子间、风险事件间、风险因子与风险事件间的交叉作用也非常复杂，如果只是独立地分析每个风险事件，不利于全面了解各个风险因子对整个项目中各种风险事件产生的影响，不利于全面了解武器装备研制项目风险的总体状况，因此需要建立描述了关于整个研制项目全面风险图景的影响图并作出评估，给出可以指导风险控制与风险决策的定量化结果。 针对武器装备研制项目风险特性，从风险管理活动需求出发，改进了影响图。引入风险节点以描述每个风险事件的各种可能状态以及各可能状态下的后果与概率。利用多类型子价值节点处理武器装备研制项目的三类风险。明确了风险因子间独立关系的表述方式。引入加和关系描述风险评估中遇到的专家关于风险因子组合模式存在分歧的问题。分析指出了改进影响图并不改变传统影响图的基本性质，但有助于武器装备研制项目的风险分析。修正了Howard正则型定义。提出了基于影响图理论的武器装备研制项目风险分析框架。 提出了武器装备研制项目风险影响图的评估方法。研究了独立关系对于计算风险量、简化分析、减少计算量的意义，给出了根据独立关系识别独立模式与独立幕景风险影响图的图层准则。考虑到决策者对各类风险后果的容忍度不同，各级别风险间存在一定缓冲量和折扣量，提出了滚动当量法以合成多类型子价值节点。提出了基于证据推理理论融合多种加和关系的方法。针对风险节点的特性，给出了风险节点的处理方法。综合以上分析，给出了武器装备研制项目风险影响图的评估方法流程。 提出了基于历史数据修正进度与费用间相关系数的方法。推导了当武器装备研制项目的进度服从对数正态分布、费用服从正态分布时，进度关于费用的条件分布函数式。根据基本事实与泰勒展开式，推导出进度取对数后的变量与费用间相关系数（ρ）和进度一费用相关系数(ρ_s，c)之间的关系。综合进度关于费用的条件分布模型和费用关于进度的条件分布模型，提出了ρ_s，c的近似估算方法和确定规则，并利用数值模拟和解析分析验证了确定规则的合理性。 结合以上分析，对高超声速演示验证飞行试验系统研制项目（HSDS）做了实例评估。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the risk characteristic existing in weapon system development project(WSDP), the influence diagram was amended in order to analyze the risk of the WSDP. The evaluation method of the amended influence diagram was developed also. The estimation method of correlation coefficient between schedule and cost was proposed. Based on these researches, the risk of one project was analyzed and evaluated.The traditional Influence Diagram was amended to describe the risk of the WSDP more clearly. Considering it is most important to provide the detail information of each risk event but not only the risk measurement to the deciders, a concept called risk node was introduced, which was utilized to store the detail information of each risk event such as every possible state of the event, the probability and the consequence of each state. Two kinds of relationships between nodes, that is, independent and combination relationships, were defined. Also, the concept of Howard canonical form was corrected. And the risk analysis framework faced to the WSDP based on the Influence Diagram theory was put forward.The evaluation algorithm was given to evaluate the amended Influence Diagram. This paper expounded the importance about recognizing the independent relationships between each risk factor node when to construct the influence diagram at the beginning. The expression method of the independent relationship and the topology rule of constructing the independent mode/scene influence diagram according to these independent relationships were given.Combination relationship was introduced to describe the problem encountered in the risk evaluation practice, that is, different experts may give out different judgments about the combination mode of many risk factors, when some other risk factors status is changed or some risk event occurs owing to these risk factors. It was proposed to fuse these combination relationships using the reasoning theory. Three types of inferior value nodes were adopted to describe three kinds of risk consequence, and the rolling method was developed to compose different inferior value nodes.The conditional distribution of the schedule about the cost was deduced. And the estimation method of correlation coefficient between the schedule and the cost based on the historical data was proposed.Later, the risk of the Hypersonic Demostration System development project was更多还原