【作者】 张永霞；

【导师】 王东阳；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 全要素生产率是总产出与总投入的比率。本研究主要在分析比较国内外生产率研究方法的基础上，根据我国农业经济背景及可获得的数据资料，采用Tornqvist指数法测算全国农业全要素生产率增长率；采用Malmquist指数法测算分省的农业全要素生产率增长率。在此基础上，利用面板数据模型，采用生产函数法分析了农业全要素生产率增长因素。 从模型方法的应用与调整上分析，本文得出以下结论： 1．进行了相关理论方法的引用比较。为了全面把握农业投入产出分析的国际前沿动态，本文通过研究比较美国农业部(USDA)、经济合作与发展组织(OECD)、国际食品政策研究所(IFPRI)和国内学者测算农业生产率的理论和方法，并且选择引用其研究模型、数据库，进行了理论框架分析和试运算，选用了文本的研究方法。 2．选择了适应农情的研究模型，对相关数据进行了调整、修正。20世纪80年代以后，随着我国市场化改革的逐步推进，市场价格对农业投入产出效率的影响作用越来越大，全国统计数据中的价格数据也逐渐系统化、规范化，但地方价格数据仍比较零星、分散。为使统计数据与研究方法相匹配，本文用以价格为权数的Tornqvist指数法测算全国农业全要素生产率，用不需要价格数据、只需要数量数据的Malmquist指数法测算各省份农业全要素生产率。为了进一步测算农业投入产出效率中各因素发挥的作用，把投入划分为实体性投入要素(包括耕地、劳动力、土地和化肥)和非实体性的技术性投入要素(包括基础设施、教育和灌溉)。测算中，对耕地、草地、劳动力等数据依据其全国平均标准进行了分类修正和估算。 3．建立了投入产出数据库，并与模型方法相连接，进行了可重复的计量测算，研究提出了较为规范化的分析工具。研究建立了三个数据库，即1979～2003年全国农业投入产出数据库、1980～2003年分省份跨年度的投入产出数据库和1992～2003年农业全要素生产率增长因素分析数据库，这些数据库分别与TFPIP1.0、DEAP2.1和Stata8.0测算软件相连接，实现了可视化、规范化的计量分析，为后续相关研究提供了实用性分析工具。 从研究结果上分析，本文得出以下结论： 1．明晰了农业全要素生产率增长的变化走势。据测算，1979～2003年，我国农业全要素生产率年均增长速度为4.52％，增长幅度较大的时间段是1979～1984年和1990～1995年，年均增长速度分别为6.40％和6.98％，其余时期增长速度较低。 2．比较了不同省份的增长差异。分省农业全要素生产率的测算结果表明，在测算期间，纯技术效率为100％即始终处于生产前沿的省份大多为经济较发达的东南部省份，其余省份在多数时期纯技术效率都是下降的；1980～1984年是技术效率发生改善的唯一时期，其他时期变化都为负；技术进步是农业全要素生产率增长的主要因素；各时期规模效率变化则一直呈负增长趋势。 3．区分了农业全要素生产率增长冈素。分析全要素生产率增长因素的结果表明，实体性投入要素除化肥具有显著性之外，其他实体性要素要么不显著，要么对总产出的产出弹性为负，而非实体性的技术性投入要素则全部具有显著性。 4．研究提出了增长的措施与建议。主要从投入、结构调整和制度变革几个方面阐述了促进增更多还原

【Abstract】 Total Factor Productivity is the ratio of total outputs to a bundle of all the factor inputs. The main contents of the research were that based on analyzing and comparing domestic and foreign research methods and in accordance with Chinese agricultural economic background and available datum, Tornqvist index was used to measure TFP of the whole country, and Malmquist index was used to measure every province’ TFP and TFP changes were decomposed into technology efficiency, scale efficiency and technology change, then based on which, panel data and production function were used to analyze factors deciding agricultural TFP’s increasing.Analyzing From application and adjustment of models and methods, the research reached some conclusions as followed:1. Some relative theories and methods were introduced and compared. In order to grasp the advanced trend of the studies on agricultural inputs and outputs, We studied and compared some relative theories and methods about agricultural TFP studied by USDA, OECD, IFPRI and some of Chinese researchers ,and chose and introduced their models and databases, then analyzed their theories’ framework and tried to measure, based on which, the research methods were selected.2. Models conform to Chinese agricultural situation were chosen and some relative datum were adjusted. After 1980s’, as the reform on market economy be pushed porward, market price affects the effiency of agricultural output in a greater extend. In national data system, price datum have been systematized and standardized step by step, but the datum about provinces’ price are still scattered. In order to make the datum match to the research methods, we took Tornqvist index which needs price data to measure national agricultural TFP, and we took Malmquist index method which need not relative price data to measure 29 provinces’ agricultural TFP. In order to measure every kind of input factor’s role on promoting agricultural TFP, We devided input factors into embodied factors (including farmland, labor, machinery and fertilizer) and disembodied factors(including infrastructure, education and irrigation).In research, Data quality of farmland, grassland, labor, etc had been modified and evaluated according to national average level.3. The databases of inputs and outputs were established, which could be connected with models and methods, the measures which could be repeated were be done, and standardized analysis instruments were presented. Three databases were established, which were national inputs and outputs database ranged from 1979 to 2003, 29 province’s inpus and outputs database ranged from 1980 to 2003 and the database about analyzing factors promoting agricultural TFP ranged from 1992 to 2003, and these three databases were connected with TFPIP1.0, DEAP2.1 and Stata8.0 respectively, which made visual and standardized measures feasible and provided analysis instruments for furture practicable studies.From analyzing research results, the conclusions could be drawn as followed: 1.Being clear about agricultural TFP’s increasing tendency. According to measure, during 1979 to 2003, the average increase speed of national agricultural TFP is 4.52%, the periods during which the increase speed of national agricultural TFP be higher were 1979~1984 and 1990~1995, and during 1979~1984 and 1990~1995, the increase speed was 6.40% and 6.98% respectively, and during other periods, the increase speed was lower.2.Comparing 29 provinces’ differences in process of increasing. The results of measuring indicated that most of the provinces which pure technology efficiency was 100% or in another word lying on更多还原