【作者】 杨立峰；

【导师】 郑丕谔；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 本文以成品油为研究对象,详细分析了国内成品油的定价机制与成品油构成的发展现状,揭示了现行成品油定价机制的两种内涵,一是直接与国际市场成品油价格挂钩;二是实行国家指导价。并指出了国内成品油价格与构成同国际油价、国家产业政策和国内成品油供需状况等因素的相关程度。以非线性动力学混沌理论为工具,计算出了鹿特丹、新加坡以及纽约成品油市场的汽油、柴油价格的Lyapunov指数,揭示了国际成品油油价的混沌特性,计算出了各成品油价格的可预报尺度,然后利用混沌理论结合人工神经网络方法对国际三地成品油市场的汽油、柴油价格进行了预测,预测检验结果比较理想。分别采用GDP增长率预测法、部门调查法、灰色GM(1,1)和DGM(2,1)对我国汽、柴油的“十一五”需求量进行了预测;运用遗传算法确定不同预测模型的组合权重,构造了国内成品油需求量的组合预测模型。通过对比分析表明,组合预测具有最高的预测精度。运用SWOT分析方法,以中国石油华北石化公司为例,全面客观分析了该公司的外部环境及内部条件。提出了华北石化增强生产能力,提高产品质量和优化产品结构的发展目标。针对三种方案,通过本文对成品油需求量及其需求结构变化的预测,参考主要经济评价数据和指标计算结果,确定了具有较高经济和社会效益的改造方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 Focusing on the refined oil market, the dissertation analyzes the pricemechanism and structure of refined oil in our country, presents the two meanings ofthe mechanism, one of which first directly connects with international refined market,and the other is price made by our government. The study result shows that the priceof domestic refined oil has a relation with price of international refined oil, nationalindustrial policy and domestic refined oil demand and supply.Using the nonlinear dynamical chaotic theory, the dissertation calculates theLyapunov exponent of the price of refined oil in the Wintergreen, Singapore and NewYork separately, which shows the chaotic characters of the refined oil price. Theforecasting scale of the price is presented, and then by using chaotic theory withartificial neutral network, we predicted the price of the gasoline, diesel oil in the threemarkets. The predictive results are encouraging.With the GDP forecasting method, sector’s survey forecasting method, the greyforecast GM (1, 1) and DGM (2, 1) models, the domestic gasoline and diesel oildemand during ‘ShiYiWu’ are predicted. Using Genetic Algorithm, the weights ofdifferent forecast model and Genetic Algorithm-Combining Forecasting model are got.The comparative results from different methods show that the GA-CF model canincrease the forecast accuracy greatly. Using SWOT tool, the dissertation presents the development strategy that canpromote production ability, quality and improve the structure of the production. Basedon the production and development strategy of HBPEC, the three-reconstruct schemesare suggested. Using the forecast results of the refined oil demand and change in thedemand structure in this dissertation and by calculating the main economicalevaluation data and indices, the reconstruct scheme with higher economical and socialeffect is confirmed.更多还原