我国国债经济绩效研究

【作者】 范炜；

【导师】 杨义群；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2006， 博士

【副题名】基于边界管理视角的理论与实证分析

【摘要】 国债“边界”问题专题研究在国债理论研究文献中比较少见,从国债经济边界的视角来评价国债经济绩效也是首次,它拓展了国债经济绩效研究的视野。 本文突破了传统的以“临界值”概念来研究国债“边界”问题思路。国债宏观调控,不仅存在着发行数量“临界值”,也存在着受制度约束的行为边界和提升管理绩效的最佳操作路径边界,“边界”的管理质量将直接影响国债经济绩效的发挥。因此,本文从国债经济边界的视角系统和深入地研究了国债“边界”管理对国债经济绩效的影响,并在此基础上探讨提高我国国债经济绩效的政策途径。全文共有九章,大致分为四个部分: 第一部分由第1章和第2章组成,属于概述性质。第1章为绪论,对本文的研究背景、动机、研究方法和研究思路等进行的阐述,提出问题,总括全文,为整体的研究奠定基础。第2章为文献综述,通过对国内外文献的总结和分析,明确本文要研究的方向和可以进行创新性研究的空间。 第二部分由第3、4、5、6、7、8章组成,主要是基于国债经济边界视角深入研究和评价各种国债“边界”管理对国债经济绩效的影响。第3章,通过构建政策可能性边界和社会偏好无差异曲线,寻求最佳政策操作路径,从理论和实证上对我国国债政策反应绩效进行评价。第4章,利用最优控制理论,求解国债政策“深入”和“退出”边界的理论依据,在此基础上评价我国通货紧缩时期积极财政政策决策的绩效。第5章和第6章,主要以我国国债“赤字管理”制度安排下出现的国债预算“灰色”边界为突破口,研究我国政府预算行为,探索提高我国国债预算绩效和财政预算超收资金使用绩效的政策路径。第7章,分析不同政绩偏好的决策者所选择的国债政策类型对国债规模边界管理的影响,利用理论推导出的结论实证分析评价我国近年来国债政策类型选择的绩效。第8章,主要是阐述国债的经济效力——国债乘数,从理论和实证上验证必须把握国债项目资金使用边界,确保国债项目资金拉动“内需”及启动民间投资。 第三部分为第9章,结论与展望部分,是论文的一个总结性章节。基于本文的研究结论探讨提高我国国债经济绩效的政策途径,并对后续研究作了展望。 本文在多数章节中,均有自己独到观点和结论,主要创新点和研究结论如下:更多还原

【Abstract】 The subject research of government debt "frontier" problem is rarely seen in relevant theoretical study literature. And it is the first time to comment on government debt economic performance from the perspective of its economic frontier, which extends its perspective.This dissertation researches government debt "frontier" problem breaking the traditional "critical value" conception into a new conception, called government debt economic frontier. The economic behavior of macroeconomic control with government debt has not only "critical value" in quantity, but behavior limit constrained by regulations and optimal operation route limit to promote management performance. The quality of "frontier" management will directly influence the exertion of economic performance of government debt policy. Therefore, this paper makes a systematic and profound research into the effect government debt "frontier" management has on the economic performance from the angle of economic frontier, and discusses feasible means of improving our economic performance based on that. It has nine chapters, and is largely divided into four parts:The first part consists of the first and second chapter, a summary in fact. The first chapter, as the introduction, states the background information, the dynamics, the study method and thoughts, etc. It puts forward questions, generalizes the whole paper, and lays a basis for the entire research. The second chapter is the literature sum-up, which makes clear the research field and the void into which creative research could be done.The second part comprises the third, the fourth, the fifth, the sixth, the seventh and the eighth chapter. It does a deep research on the influence each mode of "frontier" governance has on the economic performance of the policy. The third chapter, through the construction of policy feasibility boundary and the social preference indiscriminative curve, seeks for the optimal policy operation route, and evaluates the performance reflected from government debt policy theoretically and empirically. The fourth chapter, by use of optimal control theory, explores the theoretical basis of positive fiscal policy "entrance" and "exit", and appraises the performance of positive financial policies in times of deflation based on the theoretical analysis. The fifth and sixth chapter, mainly dealing with the budget "gray" frontier that has occurred in the government debt budget based on "deficitmanagement" system arrangement, probes into enhancing the utility performance of exceeded drawn-in capital between our government debt budget and financial budget. The seventh chapter, analyzes the effect different sorts of government debt policies chosen by different achievement-inclined deciders has on the frontier management of government debt scale, and comments on the performance of the sort of government debt policies in recent years. The eighth chapter chiefly explains the economic effectiveness of government debt, in its multiplicator. It proves in theory and demonstration that the utility boundary of government debt project capital must be held so as to ensure that "domestic demand" be fostered and non-governmental investment be launched.The ninth chapter which draws the conclusion and brings forth the prospect is the third part, and the summing-up of this dissertation. Based on the conclusions in the research above, this dissertation discussed the policy approach to increase the government debt economic performance and put forward the prospect to follow-up research.There are a lot of original viewpoints and conclusions in most of the chapters. The primary innovative points and research results are as follows:Firstly, the study method is new. By means of quantitative analysis it studies government debt budget behavior, and the "gray" boundary in our government debt budget from the perspective of exceeded income and payout of financial budget, so it ends up with the conclusion that China should carry out performance budget for its government debt as soon as possible, which is the first time to be mentioned in relevant literature.Secondly, the study thoughts are creative. This paper uses the research fruits of "frontier" theories in many different subjects for reference, and breaks the traditional theory of quantitative boundary. Then it brings forward the conception of "government debt economic frontier" ranging from government debt policy, the operation to the governance, which extends its research scope. This is the first attempt in the study thoughts of "frontier" theory.Thirdly, the employ of statistics is distinct. For many years the researchful statistics in government debt are mostly limited in figures such as government debt statistical data and the balance and financial deficit data, while this paper cites the figures of the budget and final accounts of government debt and financial deficit, the budget and final accounts of fiscal revenue and payout. Using these data, thisdissertation pushes forward the government debt study from the economic field into political field to a certain extent.Fourthly, the research mode is innovative. The dissertation sets up a possibility boundary of macroscopic readjustment policies in the shock of positive and negative prices, gropes for the optimal policy choice under different circumstances. And for the first time it advances the specific operation route for the application of the concepts of "price shocking factor" and "policy responding factor" in analyzing government debt policy. Besides, it deduces the multiplicator model of government debt policy that government debt financing, currency financing and tax-increasing financing could work together to offset fiscal deficit in an open environment. This multiplicator model includes not only the impact that market factor has on the economic effectiveness, but the impact from the system. In the round it reflects the essence of government debt policy, which is also the first try in relevant literature.Finally, this research is done from a different perspective. It discusses the economic performance of government debt policy from the angle of its economic frontier management. Moreover, it makes an attempt to integrate its economic property with its political property from the avail of achievement, and demonstrates the study of the choice of government debt policy. From all over, it concludes that the aggressive policy has an evident achievement, while the steady policy is propitious to the increase of fiscal revenue and the repayment of capital and payment of interest; and that the two kinds of policies should be harmonized and cooperated in our national economic management. This is an innovation as well.更多还原