【作者】 陈洪俊；

【导师】 李镇宇； 骆有庆；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 森林保护学， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 西花蓟马Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande)和三叶草斑潜蝇Liriomyzatrifolii Burgess寄主种类多,分布范围广,都是重要的危险性有害生物。因此,对两个种类的危险性进行评价,预测在我国的潜在分布区,提出针对性的管理措施,具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文通过资料收集,结合西花蓟马与三叶草斑潜蝇基本生物生态学特性进行适生性分析、传入可能性分析、传入后果分析。并依据以上几个方面的评价结果对两种有害生物的危险性进行综合评价,提出了具体管理措施,构建了两种有害生物的风险交流体系。其主要结论如下:1.运用适生性分析软件CLIMEX预测了西花蓟马和三叶草斑潜蝇在我国的潜在分布区。并根据不同地区预测的生态气候指标值(EI)的大小,对适生等级进行了划分。CLIMEX预测西花蓟马的潜在分布区包括:东北地区、华北地区、华中地区、华南地区以及西北的部分地区。有四个高度适生区,分别是河南、陕西、湖北为中心的适生区;四川为中心的适生区;福建和浙江为中心的适生区;贵州和广西为中心的适生区。三叶草斑潜蝇的潜在分布区包括:东北地区、华北地区、华中地区和西南地区。高度适生区主要分布在辽宁部分地区、山东东部、江苏北部、安徽北部、山西南部、陕西中南部、河南中部、湖北北部、甘肃东南部、四川东部、云南大部、贵州西部。2.应用基于遗传算法的适生性分析软件GRAP预测了西花蓟马和三叶草斑潜蝇在我国的潜在分布区。GARP预测西花蓟马在我国的适生区包括:东北地区、华北地区、华中地区和华东地区等。三叶草斑潜蝇适生区包括:东北大部分地区、华北地区、华中地区,以及华南部分地区,在新疆也存在该虫的潜在分布区。3.运用地理信息系统技术,将CLIMEX与GRAP预测的潜在适生区行叠加分析。预测西花蓟马在我国的潜在分布区重叠区域包括:辽宁、河北、京津地区、山东、山西、陕西、河南、湖北、安徽、江苏的部分地区;三叶草斑潜蝇在我国的潜在分布重叠区域包括:辽宁、河北、山东、江苏、安徽、湖南、湖北、江西、福建等地区。4.从传入可能性和传入后果两个方面对西花蓟马和三叶草斑潜蝇的危险性进行了评价。传入可能性分别评价的了进入途径上出现的可能性、进入的潜在性、定殖的潜在性、扩散的潜在性四个因素。传入后果评价分为三个主体后果进行评价,依次为:潜在的经济损失、潜在的环境损失、潜在的社会损失。综合考虑各种因素的影响,认为两种有害生物的传入风险性高(H),传入后造成严重后果的可能性大(H)。综合评判两种有害生物的危险性,得出结论:两种有害生物更多还原

【Abstract】 Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) and Liriomyza trifolii Burgess are thedevastating phytosanitary pests to a variety of hosts and widely distributed. Therefore,it is of important significance in theory and application for risk assessment, potentialdistribution prediction and proposal of risk management measures in China.In this paper, the assessment was performed on potential geographic distribution,likelihood of introduction and consequences of their introduction based on ourcollected documents and their basic bio-ecology characteristics. It was followed bythe comprehensive evaluation of potential risk of these two species of pests, theproposal of major management measures and the establishment of riskcommunication system according to above assessment results. The details are asfollows:1. The potential distribution area of Frankliniella occidentalis and Liriomyzatrifolii in China was predicted by CLIMEX software and the potential suitable rankswere divided based on different eco-climatic index (EI) value in various distributionarea.Potential distribution area of Frankliniella occidentalis includes northeast ofChina, north of China, central of China, south of China and northwest of China. Thereare four highly suitable regions, the first region is centered on Henan and Shannxi andHubei province, the second centered on Sichuan province, the third centered on Fujianand Zhejiang province and the fourth centered on Guizhou and Guangxi province. TheLiriomyza trifolii in China potentially covers northeast of China, north of China,central of China and southwest of China. In addition, the highly suitable potentialdistribution area includes part of Liaoning province, east of Shandong province, northof Jiangsu province, north of Anhui province, south of Shanxi province, central andsouth of Shanxi province, central of Henan province, north of Hubei province, southeast of Gansu province, east of Sichuan province, majority of Yunnan province andwest of Guizhou province.2. Application on GARP, a software based on genetic algorithm ecological model,was systematically introduced in detail for the first time, and it was applied topredicted the potential distribution areas of Frankliniella occidentalis and Liriomyzatrifolii in China.Potential distribution areas of Frankliniella occidentalis predicted by GARP inChina include north east of China, north of China, central areas of China and east ofChina. Potential distribution areas of Frankliniella occidentalis predicted by GARP inChina include a majority area of north east of China, north of China, central of Chinaand south of China, and also include a part of Xinjiang.3. Geography information system technique was applied to overlap the results ofpotential distribution predicted by CLIMEX and GARP for the first time. It wasindicated that the overlapped potential distribution of Frankliniella occidentalisincludes part or entire of Liaoning, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, Shanxi,Shannxi, Henan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and that of Liriomyza trifolii includesLiaoning, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Fujian etc.4. Risk assessment of Frankliniella occidentalis and Liriomyza trifolii wasconducted from the two points of view: the likelihood and consequences ofintroduction. The former involves four factors, including emergence likelihood onentry pathways, entry potential, habitation potential and spread potential. And thelatter deals with the three consequences: potential economic losses, potentialenvironmental damage and potential social losses. It was revealed by the integrationof all factors that there are high risk of introduction and likelihood of seriousconsequences caused by them. Consequently, it can be concluded that Frankliniellaoccidentalis and Liriomyza trifolii are potentially two species of highly devastatingpests for China and are recommended to be in the list of quarantine pests of forbiddenentry to China.Scenario analysis was used for pest risk management. According to the scenarioanalysis of entry process of Frankliniella occidentalis and Liriomyza trifolii and theconsideration of their common traits, crisis management measures and managementmeasures for reducing risk under appropriate protection level after their introductionwere proposed.Crisis management is in hope of achieving precaution, control and even removalof pests and will be initiated at the introduction of either of these two species of pests.Management measures for reducing risk under appropriate protection level wereproposed depending on epidemic area and improved to meet the requirements ofimport and transport standard by a series of risk managements. It finally resulted in atotal of six management measures (M1-M6) for reducing risk and one or severalmeasures could be adopted corresponding to various goods or regions.6. The consultation of documents and overseas advanced experiences resulted inthe division of risk communication into three kinds: including crisis communication,care communication, and concensus communication. Risk communication ofFrankliniella occidentalis and Liriomyza trifolii involved crisis communication andcare communication and risk assessment concerning them finally led to the proposalof major objectives in risk communication.7. Risk assessment was performed on the double-role of Frankliniellaoccidentalis and Liriomyza trifolii acting as facility agriculture pests and generalagriculture pests for the first time to. It can be inferred that the management andinspection in unsuitable field are as important as those in suitable area and riskcommunication is the guarantee for strengthening the control of these two species ofpests and reducing the spread risk. Moreover, more attention should be paid toalternate-infection of pests (particularly tiny insect pests) between commonagriculture and general agriculture.更多还原