【作者】 陈楠；

【导师】 林宗坚； 李成名；

【作者基本信息】 山东科技大学 ， 大地测量学与测量工程， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 人口分布总是在一定历史过程中的空间现象,而人口的历史发展过程又总是在一定的地理空间中的发展变化。两者互为表里,互为依托,相互联系而又各具特色。可以看出人口的时间发展和空间发展是紧密联系在一起的,因此我们作为GIS学科的工作者更加应该考虑人口在时间轴上的空间分布状况,在做未来人口预测时更应考虑预测相应的人口空间分布状况。 本研究运用GIS理论、方法、技术分析人口空间分布特征与相关因子(自然和经济因子)间的定量关系,试图提出新的指标,并建立人口空间分布数学模型。运用GIS学科的空间统计分类分析方法中的主成分分析技术评价分布是否合理,提出自己的人口压力指标,并试图提出对策。 根据地学空间相互作用理论,运用本文的人口压力指标首次建立了人口空间迁移与人口压力及其它经济指标相互关系的数学模型。模型通过了实际数据的检验,为区域人口迁移预测提供了新的思路。 运用GIS理论、方法研究人口空间分布与经济发展之间的相互关系,提出了自己的人口经济系统数量增长的微分方程组模型,并在方程组中引入人口空间分布与经济之间关系协调性的因子,揭示两者之间的动力学机制。 此外,本文将R/S分析方法与灰色预测方法引入人口预测中,并基于GIS的角度提出并实现人口预测时在数量预测之后还要对未来人口空间分布模式做预测的观点。更多还原

【Abstract】 Population distribution is a spatial phenomenon in a certain historical development and the historical development of population always varies with a certain geographical and spatial environment. They depend on and interrelate with each other, and have their own characteristics. The development of population interrelates closely with each other in terms of time and space. The spatial distribution of population on the time axel should be taken into consideration, especially for the future use to forecast population distribution.GIS theory and technology are employed to analyze the quantitative relationship between population distribution features and relative natural & economic factors. New indexes are proposed and population distribution model is established in the research. Principal component analysis of spatial statistical analyzing methods in GIS is adopted to evaluate if the distribution is reasonable, and population pressure indexes are put forward with the resolving strategies discussed.Mathematical model on the interactive relationship between population migration, population pressure and other economic indexes is established according to geographic theories. Population migration forecasting method is proposed through testing the real data by the model, which gives a new line for forecasting population migration in different regions.The study on the relationship between population distribution and economic development is made by employing GIS. Differential equations of population and economic growth are provided and the coordinating factor revealing the dynamic mechanic between population distribution and economy is given in the thesis. R/S analyzing method and forecasting by gray gray number are introduced in population-projection. The concept that the future population distribution model should be forecasted after predicting the current population quantity is put forward based on GIS.更多还原