清代云南（1711-1911年）的季风气候与天气灾害

【作者】 杨煜达；

【导师】 邹逸麟；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 历史地理学， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 云南地处北半球低纬高原,由于其特殊的地理位置,受到多种季风环流的影响。其气候的演变,有着自己显著的特点。对这一地区的历史气候进行研究,讨论其气候变化的特点和机制,对亚洲季风和全球变化的研究,均有重要的意义。 本文主要利用档案、方志和文集等历史文献中的相关资料,以恢复重建高分辨率的清代(1711-1911年)云南雨季开始期、昆明雨季强弱和冬季平均气温序列为中心,并进行相关的方法上的探索。主要的研究和结论如下: 通过系统的收集和整理档案、方志和文集中存留的史料,建立了目前最完备的云南历史气候史料ACCESS数据库。 初步探索清代气象情况奏报制度的形成,并通过对清代档案中降水、灾害和收成资料的具体研究和分析,指出了其中存在的系统偏差及其原因,并提出了对历史天气资料系统偏差的检验方法。 探索了科学可行的利用文献资料进行雨季开始期序列复原的方法,并成功地对云南1711-1911年间的雨季早晚进行复原。分析表明,云南雨季开始期在长时段上有明显的变化,并存在明显的准3年和11年周期,这在一定程度上反映了云南夏季风的变迁。同时发现,El Nino事件对云南雨季的开始期有重要的影响,但这种影响存在明显减弱的时期。可能意味着ENSO事件对亚洲夏季风的影响存在某种震荡。 结合历史资料的情况,探索精度介于降水量复原和旱涝等级间的降水等级的复原方法,并尝试采用了更符合降水实际情况的偏态分布。采取了一系列针对资料存在的系统偏差问题的纠偏措施,取得了满意的效果。分析表明,1711-1911年201年间昆明雨季降水可分为4个大的阶段,其变迁有自己的特点。太阳活动的长周期有可能影响到昆明的雨季降水。 建立冬季降雪和干季降水的双因子回归方程,恢复了1721-1855年间昆明的冬季平均温度序列,这是目前重建的低纬度地区第一个高分辨率的历史气温序列。并利用其它资料补出了1856-1900年间的10年冬季平均温度序列。分析表明,18-19世纪昆明皆处于偏冷的时期,但又有一定的波动,且昆明气温存在跃升现象。而和全国其它地方比较,则其冷暖的变化有很多的差异性。 对发生在1815-1817年间遍及云南大部分地区的大饥荒的气候成因进行了考察,指出大饥荒是连年夏秋低温导致的农作物大幅减产造成的,其原因为印度尼西亚坦博拉火山喷发。这次低温应在全国范围内都存在,但仅在低纬高原地区和北方农牧交错带附近造成较大影响。 对1905-1907年间云南连续性的严重旱涝灾害的天气成因进行了具体分析,指出1905年和1907年的先早后涝都有El Nino事件的背景,而1906年的大旱更多还原

【Abstract】 Yunnan Province is located on the low-latitude plateau on the Northern Hemisphere. Due to this special geographical location, it is affected by various monsoon circulation thus resulting in distinctive features in its climate evolution. Therefore, studying the historical climate as well as discussing the features and mechanisms regarding the change of climate in this area is of great significance to the research into both Asian monsoon and the Global Environmental Change.Firstly, by applying such established materials as archives, local annals, and collected works, the present dissertation centres on recuperating and reconstructed the starting moment of rainy seasons, the powerful and weak periods of rainy seasons in Kunming as well as the series of the winter average temperature, which are all of high-resolution ratio, during the Qing Dynasty between 1711 and 1911.Secondly, by systematically collecting and arranging the historical documents remained in archives, local annals and collected works, the author has established the most complete ACCESS databank.Thirdly, by exploring how the weather-report system formed in the Qing Dynasty as well as making a concrete study and analysis of the archives about precipitation, disaster and harvest of the Qing dynasty, the dissertation points out systemic deviation and its cause and meanwhile provides the checking approaches to the systemic deviation of historical documents about weather report.Fourthly, the dissertation also explores the scientific ways of recuperating the series of the starting moment of rainy seasons by means of historical documents, and it also succeeds in recuperating these series in Yunnan Province between the years 1711 and 1911. The analysis indicates that there is obvious change in the starting moment of rainy seasons in Yunnan during these long years, and there exists a cycleof 3 years and 11 years. This reflects to a certain degree the gradual change of the summer monsoon in Yunnan. At the same time, the dissertation finds that the El Nino event plays a very important role in the starting periods of rainy seasons in Yunnan, and that there is an obvious turn period in such influence, which in turn may show there is certain influence from the ENSO event.Fifthly, using historical documents, this dissertation discusses how to recuperate the grades of precipitation, whose precision lies between the recuperation of precipitation and grades of draught and flood; it attempts to adopt the abnormal distribution more in accord with the factual conditions of precipitation; it succeeds in adopting a series of measures intended to solve the problem of systemic deviation. The analysis indicates that the 201 years from 1711 to 1911 can be divided into four phases according to the precipitation in rainy season in Kunming, each having its own characteristics, and that the cycle of the sun’s activities may affect the precipitation in Kunming.Sixthly, by establishing the regress equation of bi-determiner of the snow in winter and the precipitation in dry seasons, the dissertation recuperates the series of the average temperature in winters between 1711 and 1911 in Kunming, and this is the first rebuilt series of high-resolution ratio about the historical temperature in low latitude areas. The dissertation, by making use of other documents, also creates the series of the 10 years average temperature between 1856 and 1900. The analysis shows that Kunming experienced rather too cold period with some intervals during the 18 th and 19 * centuries, and that the temperature in Kunming became higher. While compared with other areas in the country, it can found be many diversities in Kunming’s high and low temperatures.Seventhly, the dissertation investigates the cause of the climate that resulted in the serious starvation in most areas of Yunnan during 1815 and 1817 and arrives at a conclusion that the starvation resulted from the diminished output due to the low temperature in continuous summers and autumns which is a result of the Tanboravolcano in Indonesia. There must have been the effect of the low temperature in other areas in the country, but only the areas on the low-latitude plateau and the crisscross areas of farming and pasturage experienced the serious effect.Eighthly, the dissertation makes a concrete analysis of the cause of the climate that resulted in the continuous serious draught and flood in Yunnan during 1905 and 1907, then points out that the draught followed by flood in 1905 and 1907 had some relation to the El Nino event, while the serious draught in 1906 may be related to the abnormal phenomenon of the monsoon circulation in East Asia, and that continuous serious disasters may be related to the unstableness of the climate at its turning period. The social factor of the serious disasters is that the widely planting of opium and the more important one —the failure in society reconstructed resulted from the waned storehouse and the disrepair of the irrigation after the war (1856-1875) during the Xianfeng-tongzhi Period, brought about the serious fall in grain production and storage, which in turn enlarges the destruction of the disasters. Fortunately, the society made an active response to the disaster.Lastly, based on the comparison and the analysis of the above recuperated seriess, the dissertation concludes that the evolution of historical climate in Yunnan has special and distinctive characteristics and that the cause of the evolution of the precipitation in rainy seasons is more complicated than that of the starting moment of rainy seasons. Although Yunnan enjoyed varieties in the allocation of dry and wet seasons as well as cold and hot seasons, it experienced mainly the alternate change between cold-wet seasons and dry-hot seasons when those are considered within a hundred years. The climatic change in Yunnan usually happened and completed in a abrupt way, and furthermore, there were some periods when the climate was abnormally unsteady. Yunnan also has the weak sides regarding the changes in the precipitation at the starting moment of rainy season, in the precipitation throughout the whole rainy season, and in the temperature in the summer between those years. Serious disasters in history usually have relation to these changes. The climatic更多还原