【作者】 王韶；

【导师】 周家启；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 电气工程， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 随着经济的发展、电力工业改革的逐步深入和电力市场的形成，大电力系统可靠性在未来的经济生活中将会发挥更重要的作用。由于电力系统规模的扩大，使得大电力系统可靠性评估的难度加大。论文针对大电力系统充裕度评估的交流潮流法进行了系统的理论和应用研究，在评估的计算模型、提高计算方法的精度和效率等方面作了大量深入的研究工作。 论文的主要研究内容如下： ①传统的双回平行输电线路可靠性计算模型只计及了独立停运、共同模式停运而没有考虑相关停运故障模式。为了便于在大电力系统可靠性评估中计及这种线路各种停运模式的影响，本文运用马尔可夫随机过程理论导出了一种较现有方法更为完整的双回平行输电线路可靠性评估的通用模型。该模型可以计及独立停运_、共同模式停运和相关停运，并可考虑各种修复方式对双回平行输电线路可靠性的影响。通过对该模型的简化，得到了相应的双回平行输电线路可靠性计算的简化模型。用双回平行输电线路可靠性评估的通用模型很容易根据实际应用提出的不同要求导出一系列相应的可靠性计算模型，因此该模型不仅具有重要的理论价值，而且具有重要的实际工程应用价值；其简化模型物理概念明确，使用方便。算例分析验证了提出的模型良好的适应性和有效性。 ②为了计算和分析双回平行输电线路对大电力系统可靠性评估的影响，提出一种计及双回平行输电线路独立停运、共同模式停运和相关停运的大电力系统可靠性计算方法。计及共同模式停运和相关停运时，双回平行输电线路的两回线实际上是一个具有多个状态的元件。提出的算法可以在形成可靠性指标时，同时计算这种多状态元件造成系统失效状态下，独立停运，共同模式停运和相关停运的概率和频率，减少了计算量。通过对RBTS系统、IEEE-RTS96区域A系统和一个实际电力系统进行的可靠性计算分析，验证了提出的算法的正确性和有效性。 ③大电力系统可靠性评估的枚举法需要大量的计算时间。为减少可靠性评估的计算量，特提出一种用于识别偶发事件的函数型连接神经网络(FLNN)分类模型。为获取事故后的系统状态信息，用相对于故障前系统状态的变化量反映事件的行为特征，设计了一组行为指标(PI)，构造出神经网络分类器。根据潮流计算特点，构造了一种能够计及有功且能够计及电压和无功影响的简化潮流模型来快速计算行为指标，形成FLNN输入模式集。将FLNN分类模型和简化潮流模型相结合，提出了一种基于偶发事件筛选的函数型连接神经网络可靠性评估方法。用该方法对IEEE-RTS96区域A系统进行计算，结果验证了该方法的正确性和有效性，同重庆大学博士学位论文时表明了该方法在保证精度的前提下减少了计算时间，在目前情况下改进计算方法来提高计算精度比计及高阶事件的影响来提高计算精度更为有效。 ④为了改进充裕度评估方法的计算效率，论文首次提出并实现了大电力系统充裕度评估的并行交流潮流法。该方法的核心是基于大规模电网分解协调计算原理，本文提出的粗粒度空间并行的快速解祸潮流模型及算法和直流潮流模型及算法。其特点是把系统划分为几个子网络;用LU分解法计算子网络和边界节点的交流潮流;根据进程间交换的潮流违限消息进行直流潮流校正控制;最后计算可靠性指标。提出的方法在用个人计算机和100叨1 000M以太网构建的计算平台上实现了大电力系统充裕度评估交流潮流法的并行计算。通过对IEEE一RTS96系统和一个实际电力系统进行的可靠性计算分析，验证了该方法的正确性、可行性和有效性。提出的方法能够有效地减少计算时间，缓解“计算灾”，为大电力系统充裕度评估交流潮流法的工程应用提供了很好的解决方案，展现出广阔的工程应用前景。关键词:大电力系统;可靠性评估;双回平行输电线路;马尔可夫模型;共同模 式停运;相关停运;函数型连接神经网络;偶发事件筛选;并行处理;PC 机群更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the development of economy, the further innovation in electric power industry and the form of the electrical energy market, the role of bulk power system reliability assessment(BPSRA) becomes more important in future economic life. Due to the expansion in size of power system, the BPSRA is increasingly great difficult work. The systematical studies on theory and application of AC load flow method of bulk power system adequacy assessment are thoroughly conducted in this dissertation. Many remarkable works on the models and algorithms of AC load flow method of bulk power system adequacy assessment are under intensive study to improve accuracy and efficiency of calculation methodologyThe main results in detail are included in the following:(1) Independent outages and common mode outages of two transmission lines in parallel are included and dependent outages is not included in traditional models. In order to involve conveniently the kinds of outage modes of these lines in BPSRA, utilizing the theory of Markov stochastic process, a reliability assessment generalized model for two transmission lines in parallel is deduced, which is more sophisticated than existing methods. Independent outages, common mode outages and dependent outages can be include, as well as various effects of repair mode on operation reliability of two transmission lines in parallel can be considered in the model. By predigesting the generalized model, the quite simple model is deduced. It is very easy that using the generalized model a series of reliability model of two transmission lines in parallel can be deduced according to different require of practice applications. For this reason, there is important value not only in theory but also in practice engineering application. The physical concept of its predigested model is definite and it is used conveniently and easy. Example analysis shows that the proposed model takes on better adaptability and effectiveness.(2) In an effort to calculate and analyze the effect of two transmission lines in parallel on BPSRA, a new algorithm including independent outages, common mode outages and dependent outages corresponding to its generalized model is presented. Two transmission lines in parallel including common mode outages and dependent outages can be really simulated as a multi-state component. While reliability indices are calculated, the probability and frequency of independent outages, common modeoutages and dependent outage of a system failure state can be calculated at the same time, and computation requirements are reduced. The proposed model and algorithm are applied to the RBTS system, IEEE One Area RTS96 system and a real power system for reliability computation and analysis. Results show that the algorithm is credible and validity.(3) The enumeration method for BPSRA requires a large amount of CPU time. In order to reduce such computation requirements, a functioned link neural network(FLNN) classification model identifying contingencies in power systems is proposed. For the sake of gaining post-accident information of system states, a group of performance index(PI) is designed according to the performance character relative to the changes of base case. Moreover, a neural network classifier is constructed. A simplified load flow model which is able to include both of active and reactive effects is constructed using an AC load flow algorithm. The models can be employed to calculate quickly PIs that are used to form input pattern sets of a FLNN. A contingency screening based reliability assessment method of power system taking advantage of features of the FLNN classification model combined with the simplified load flow model is also presented. Application examples are tested on the IEEE One Area RTS96 system and the results show the correctness and validity of the developed method in a decrease in computation time with a maintained accuracy. At the same time, it can be learned from the outcome that an improvement of computation accuracy in an algorithm is more effective than an inclusion o更多还原