【作者】 陶建平；

【导师】 雷海章；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 长江中游平原是农业洪涝灾害多发地区，频繁发生的洪涝灾害恶化了区域生态环境、并造成农业经济的巨大损失，农业洪涝灾害风险成为该地区农业发展、农民增收的巨大障碍。我国尚未建立起有效的农业灾害风险管理体制，农业保护与支持缺乏力度，如此如何能应对WTO开放条件下全方位的农业市场竞争?这是摆在中国农业面前的一个严峻的现实性问题。本论文从长江中游平原的农业洪涝灾害风险特征分析入手，探讨我国农业基本制度在减轻农业灾害风险中的作用，设计并构建长江中游平原农业洪涝灾害风险管理制度与政策体系。对长江中游平原农业洪涝灾害风险管理的研究，在改善农业生态环境、灾后经济重建与区域可持续发展、国家财政支农和农业产业保护等方面，具有重要的理论价值和积极的现实意义。 第一章至第三章的研究中，综述了本项研究的国内外研究动态，回顾了风险管理研究的发展现状和趋势，分析了农业灾害风险与农业保险的关联关系，总结了农业灾害风险约束下农业产权制度理论和农业洪灾风险管理的保险理论、政策干预理论、Bayes风险决策理论。为下一步的研究奠定理论基础。 第四章至第六章以农业技术科学、环境科学和区域经济学的角度分析了农业灾害风险的特点和运动规律，以1998年大洪水为例剖析了长江中游平原农业洪涝灾害风险的区域环境特征和风险特征，实证分析湖北嘉鱼县农业洪涝灾害风险，提出了洪灾区农业结构调整和避洪农业生产模式。 第七章至第十章偏重经济学和管理学的分析。基于对我国农业基本制度的分析，认为我国农业灾害风险管理存在制度上的缺陷：小规模经营的土地承包制度是我国农业的基本制度，使得我国农户无力应对洪涝巨灾风险；面对损失日益加大的洪涝灾害，我国财政支农投资也显不足；农业保险因缺乏政策性支持而步履为艰。在比较分析国外农业风险管理发展经验、WTO国内支持规则的基础上，设计构建长江中游平原农业洪涝灾害风险管理的制度与政策体系。 第十一章是研究结论的总结，提出了我国农业灾害风险管理发展的几点建议：一是要充分认识到我国农业洪涝灾害的严重性，长江中游平原农业洪涝灾害风险管理制度与政策体系的建设应尽早摆上议事日程；二是农业防灾抗灾工程具有很强的效益外部性，在农业洪涝灾害风险的保障投入中政府理应当发挥关键性作用；三是改革长江中游平原农业耕作制度，发展避洪农业，优化长江中游平原农业生产结构：四是积极利用WTO国内农业“绿箱政策”空间，加大对农业基本建设的投入，尤其是长江中游平原的农田水利基础设施建设和中上游地区的退耕还林水土保持，提升我国农业抵御自然灾害的能力，保护农业生产能力；五是借鉴发达国家发展农业摘要保险的经验，发展我国农业政策性保险，充分发挥农业保险在分散农业灾害风险方面的重要作用:六是改革农业救灾体制，逐步建立快速反应的农业洪涝灾害风险应急机制，变事后救灾救急为灾前预防为主。 本论文的研究在构建长江中游平原地区的农业洪涝灾害风险管理制度与政策体系、洪灾区农业结构调整与避洪农业生产模式、政策性农业保险制度设计等研究内容上有创新:对长江中游平原农业洪涝灾害复杂性大系统进行自然与经济的综合分析，体现了学科的交叉与融合，在研究方法上具有创新性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The plain of mid-Yangtze River is a region of agricultural flood multi-disasters. The flood disasters have deteriorated regional ecological circumstances and given rise to huge loss of agriculture, the risk of agricultural flood disaster has been become big barrier of agricultural development and farmers’ income growth. It has not established effective risk management of agricultural flood, Chinese agricultural conservation and holding are short of strength, and how to cope with all agricultural competition in WTO? It is a reality issue in front of Chinese agriculture, paper has analyzed feature of risk management of agricultural flood disasters in the plain of the mid-Yangtze River, and studied on the impact to agricultural disasters by Chinese agricultural basis system and designed and established the systems and policies of risk management of agricultural flood disasters in the mid-Yangtze River .It would have an important theory’s value and positive reality significance by studying on the risk management of flood disasters in the plain of the mid-Yangtze River.Paper has overviewed the research condition of the text in China and abroad, and looked back the development condition and tendency of research to risk management, and analyzed the relationship between agricultural flood disaster and agricultural insurance, and summarized system’s theory of agricultural possession and the insurance of risk management of agricultural flood disaster, and the theory of policy tamper, and Bayes’ risk and decision theory from part 1 to part 3. All above have established theory basis of paper.Paper from part 4 to part 6 has analyzed characteristic and law of agricultural disasters risk on agricultural technological science and environmental science and regional economics, and studied regional environmental characteristic and risk feature of agricultural flood disasters risk in the plain of the mid-Yangtze River, and probed really agricultural flood disaster risk at Jiayu in Hubei, and put out adjustment of agricultural structure and agricultural model of avoid flood in the area of flood disaster. From part 7 to part 10, paper takes into account on studying of economics and management. By analyzed on basic systems of Chinese agriculture, it is taken for that there are system’s defects of Chinese risk management of agricultures disasters, as the partition of land system is a basis system of Chinese agriculture, farmers have no force to face huge risk of flood disaster. In front of flood disasters which is increasingly more loss,it is shot of agricultural investment in Chinese finance, the development of agricultural insurance is in difficulty by short of policy’s holding. Based on the comparative analysis of experience of agricultural risk management in developed countries, and the law of national holding, paper has designed and established the law’s and policy’s systems of risk management agricultural flood disaster in the plain of mid-Yangtze River.There is a conclusion of research in part 11, the paper put forward several suggestions to Chinese risk management of agricultural disasters: (1)Because of the seriousness of Chinese agricultural flood disaster, it must be put out in state plan for construction of law’s and policy’s systems of risk management of agricultural flood disaster in the plain of the mid-Yangtze River; (2)Based on exo-utilization of agricultural project of avoid disasters, state must take an important part in holding investment of agricultural risk; (3)Our country must innovate the pattern of agriculture, and develop avoid agriculture, and adjust agricultural structure in the plain of the mid-Yangtze River; (4)By use of the "green policy" of WTO, Chinese government should increase investment to agricultural infrastructure, especially the basic installation agricultural land and water in the plain of the mid-Yangtze River and the preservation of land and water by decreasing agricultural land to forest. All above will promote the ability that Chinese agricultural avoid natural disaster, and preserve更多还原