【作者】 蒋惠园；

【导师】 朱美琪；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 船舶与海洋结构物设计制造， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 内河运输是综合运输网中重要的组成部分，为社会经济发展作着巨大的贡献。与其它运输方式相比，内河运输发展滞后，经济研究工作更为薄弱。市场经济体制下，内河运输的核心问题即为需求和供给。本文对内河运输需求与供给的理论和方法进行深入的研究，以求完善运输经济与管理的理论体系，提高内河运输的市场竞争力，更好地适应国民经济和社会发展，具有十分重要的理论与现实意义。 论文运用经济学理论以及相关学科所取得的研究成果，从系统的角度研究内河运输需求、供给、平衡的理论与方法。论文主要由两大部分组成。 内河运输需求篇从国民经济的需求角度论述了内河运输需求基本特征与发展规律，提出将内河运输需求置于综合交通系统中研究的观点，在内河运输需求预测中研究了影响需求者方式选择的因素，提出了改进的运输方式多元分担模型，考虑了其它运输方式分担的背景。对内河运输需求预测理论与方法进行深入的分析和研究：提出了带调整的指数平滑法，提高了预测精度；运用神经网络模型进行内河运输需求的综合交通多目标预测和引入混沌理论进行内河交通流预测；提出了内河运输需求的组合预测模型，建立了线性、非线性组合预测模型，并以实证证明了非线性组合预测模型的精确性；进行了港口交流量预测研究，并对长江干线港口交流量预测进行了实证研究。 内河运输供给篇从系统的角度论述了内河运输供给的构成，提出内河运输供给的分层次发展目标；研究用生产函数模型定量描述内河运输系统广义供给的方法，建立了内河运输系统广义供给动态生产函数模型；建立了内河运输供给评价指标体系，运用改进的熵权法和组合评价方法进行内河运输供给评价，为内河航运供给评价的系统化、规范化奠定了基础；运用DEA理论对内河运输供给的效率进行了评价；研究内河运输供需平衡的理论，建立了内河运输供求平衡的基本方程，对运价指数、景气度指数用于内河运输供需平衡进行了研究，建立内河运输景气监测预警系统模型；最后在内河运输SWOT分析和合理定位基础上，提出了内河航运发展战略。更多还原

【Abstract】 Inland water transport is the important component in the comprehensive transport network, and it is doing enormous contribution for social economic development unhonoredly all the time. Compared with other transportation ways, inland water transport development lags behind, and its economic research work is weaker. Under the market economic system, the key question of inland water transport is demand and supply. This text carries on deeply research to the theory and method of the supply and demand of inland water transport, in order to perfect theoretical system of economy and management of transportation, improve the market competitiveness of inland water transport, and adapt to national economic and social development better. The research has very important theory and realistic meaning.The thesis uses the economics theory and research results made of relevant discipline to study the theory and method of the inland water transport’s demand, supply and balance from the systematic angle. The thesis is made of two major parts mainly.The part of inland water transport demand describe essential feature and rule of development of the demand of the inland water transport in terms of demand for national economy, and put forward the view of putting the inland water transport demand into the comprehensive traffic system to study the inland water transport. The factor that influences the way choice of the demander has been studied in the requirement forecasting of inland water transport for the first time. An improved transportation way pluralism share model has been put forward after considering the background that other transportation ways share. Carry on deep analysis and study about the requirement forecasting theory and method of inland water transport: Putting forward the level and smooth law of index which is adjusted, which improve the precision of predicting; Using neural network model carry on comprehensive traffic many goal predict of inland water transport demand and leading into the Chaos theory to predict the inland traffic flow for the first time; Putting forwardcombination predict model of the inland water transport demand and setting up linearity and nonlinearity line combination predict model for the first time, and their accuracy have been proved with the real example ; Predicting the exchanging amount of port of the Changjiang River for the first time after carrying on research to the exchanging amount of port.The part of inland water transport supply expound the composition of inland water transport supply from the angle of the system, put forward levels development goal of the inland water transport. Use the production function model to ration describe the broad sense supply of the inland transportation system, and set up the dynamic production function model of the broad sense supply of the inland transportation system for the first time; Set up evaluation index system of the inland water transport supply, use improved entropy proportion means and combined evaluation means to appraise the inland water transport supply for the first time, and use the DEA theory to appraise the efficiency of the inland water transport supply at the same time ; Study the theory of the equilibrium of supply and demand of inland water transport, set up the basic equation of the balance of the supply and demand of inland water transport, and research the index of the freight rate and the index of prosperous degree separately which are applied in the equilibrium of supply and demand of the inland water transport, set up the model of the monitoring and early warning system about the prosperity of the inland water transport for the first time; Finally, put forward the development strategy of inland shipping on the basic of SWOT analysis and rational orientation of inland water transport.更多还原