【作者】 杨礼胜；

【导师】 朱希刚；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 本研究的目的是探讨我国在农业和农村经济发展进入新的历史阶段，农产品供给结构性剩余，农民增产不增收的情况十分突出的形势下，如何通过有效的手段，加速我国农业科技创新，促进科技创新与农业结构调整的协调与统一，促使农业增长由粗放型向集约型转变，由数量型向质量型转变，由资源结构型向科技结构型转变的政策和理论方法。 在方法上，本研究综合运用经济学和农业经济学理论，将宏观分析与微观分析、定量分析与定性分析有机地结合起来。具体方法为： 1、实证研究与一般推理、归纳分析相结合 在研究科技创新对农业结构调整的作用、农业结构变动情况等问题时主要采取实证分析的方法，选择性地分析粮食作物布局的变化对粮食产量的影响，通过建立计量经济模型，定量分析农业科技创新在我国农业结构调整中的作用；在研究科技创新与农业结构调整基本原理、科技创新促进农业结构调整的机制、措施和对策建议时则主要采用规范分析的方法。 2、数据包络分析评价方法和扩展型Cobb-Douglas生产函数模型的运用 本研究用数据包络分析方法(Data Envelopment gnalysis，即DEA)模型来估算农业生产函数。运用DEA方法研究我国农业结构调整的效率，探讨农业科技投入与农业结构调整效率之间的关系。通过建立相关的计量经济模型对农业科技创新促进农业结构调整的具体作用进行了定量分析。 3、采用因素分解法，通过设计种植业总产出增长的指数体系，将能够反映种植业内部结构的指标(如播种面积)纳入该指数体系，分解出结构调整对种植业增长的贡献。 通过研究，得出了以下主要结论与建议： 1、农业科技创新与农业结构调整是一种互动的关系，农业产业结构决定了农业科技结构，农业科技创新反过来又带动农业产业结构的优化和升级；农业科技创新与农业结构调整的作用规律主要表现为同一性规律、互动性规律和动态平衡规律；农业科技创新与农业结构调整的作用机制是技术需求机制、技术供给机制、技术扩散机制和科技创新激励机制。 2、农林牧渔业科技活动人员数量、研究的课题数及课题投入经费以及研究与开发经费总支出(比例)等四个解释变量能很好地反映农业科技创新水平的变化，对农业结构的变动具有较强的解释能力。特别地，农业科技人员的数量与农业科研经费投入对农业结构的优化和调整有显著的促进作用。对种植业而言，由于技术进步而导致单位面积产量的提高与价格的上升明显地促进了种植业结构的调整。 3、研究证明，农业结构战略性调整需要科技创新提供强有力的支撑，农业的发展和进步，必须依靠科技创新。 本研究可能的创新之处在于： 1、构建了农业科技创新的基本理论体系框架，提出了农业科技创新促进农业结构调整的可能途径和方式。 2、综合运用计量回归模型和因素分解分析模型对影响农业结构变化的因素及科技创新促进结构调整的影响因素进行了分析，提出了一些富有建设性的设想和建议。 3、运用DEA非参数分析法，对结构调整的效率进行了分析，对影响效率变化的因素进行了研究和分析，对科技创新促进结构调整的影响因素的变化趋势进行了探讨，分析结论具有新意，也较符合我国目前的现状，思路及建议有一定的参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper the author tries to probe into the policy and method of accelerating the agricultural scientific and technical innovation, promoting the coordination and unity of scientific and technical innovation and agricultural structural adjustment through the effective means, impelling agricultural growth to change from extensive style to intensive style, from quantity type to quality type, and from the resource structure type to the scientific and technical structure type under the situation of agricultural products supply with structural surplus and production increase but peasants’ income decrease.In this paper the methods of macro analysis and micro analysis, quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis are combined with the theories of economics and agricultural economics. The details are as follows:1. Combining the empirical study with common reasoning and inductionThe empirical method is mainly applied in analyzing the function of scientific and technical innovation in the agricultural structural adjustment, and agricultural structure change, etc. The impact of grain arrangement change on grain yield is analyzed alternatively and the role of agricultural scientific and technical innovation in agricultural structural adjustment of China is quantitatively measured through the economic models. The normative method is mainly applied in studying the basic principle of scientific and technical innovation and agricultural structural adjustment, mechanism, measures and suggestions of scientific and technical innovation promoting the agricultural structural adjustment.2. Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) and extended Cobb-Douglas production functionIn this paper the Data Envelopment Analysis (namely DEA) is used in estimating the agricultural production function. By using DEA method, the efficiency of agricultural structural adjustment is studied, the relationship between the input in agricultural science and technology and the efficiency of agricultural structural adjustment is discussed. Through the relevant econometric models, the role of agricultural scientific and technical innovation in promoting the agricultural structural adjustment is measured.3. Factors resolving methodThrough designing the index system of the growth of total output of crop production, tiie indexes (such as sown area) reflecting the internal structure of crop fanning are included into this index system and the contributions of structural adjustment to the increasing of crop farming are resolved out.The following conclusions and suggestions are educed from the above research. 1. The agricultural scientific and technical innovation interplays with the agricultural structural adjustment. The industrial structure of agriculture determines the structure of science and technology and vice versa the agricultural scientific and technical innovation drives optimize and upgrading of the industrial structure of agriculture. The law of interaction of agricultural scientific and technical innovation and agricultural structural adjustment is identity, interaction and dynamic balance. The mechanism of interaction of agricultural scientific and technical innovation and agricultural structural adjustment is technical demand mechanism, technicalsupply mechanism, technical diffusion mechanism and innovation promotion mechanism.2. Four explanatory variables such as quantity of personnel engaging in scientific and technological activities of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, number of projects, the funds and the total expenditure (proportion) of R&D funds, can reflect the change of agricultural scientific and technical innovative competence well and have stronger explanation ability to the change of the agricultural structure. Especially, the quantity of personnel engaging in scientific and technological activities of agriculture and funds inputting in agricultural research have remarkable facilitation to optimization and adjustment of agricultural structure. As for crop farming, the increase of output per更多还原