【作者】 陆海波；

【导师】 顾培亮；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 系统工程， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 鉴于当前受到世界各国关切的环境议题，多与能源的生产与使用行为相关，由能源部门着手寻求改善或解决可持续发展问题的方式，应是较有效且直接的途径。因此本文参考Munasinghe（1994）所提出的“可持续能源发展”（Sustainable Energy Development）概念，试图将其与能源、经济与环境等政策议题结合，建立整合性的能源、经济与环境决策架构，来支撑国家自然资源的开发使用策略，兼顾经济效率、能源效率、能源节约及环境保护四目标，将可持续能源发展落实于政策的规划与执行中。基于这个理念，本文的主要工作是：1、在可持续发展的基础上研究能源的发展问题，尤其是把环境诸因素作为系统的主体研究，而不是简单作为检验标准，真正贯彻了使能源发展与经济发展，保护环境协调同步的理念。同时在采用系统动力学方法建模研究3E系统的过程中，模型将绝大部分参数作为系统的内生变量，只有极少数参数（如人口）作为系统的外生变量，力图让系统自己来调节各个子系统的平衡并达到可持续发展的目的，这也是采用系统动力学方法研究的优势和特点所在。2、针对能源资本投资的特点，引入了时间延时的影响，因而使得投资的当前期望效益和实际效益的不统一，赋予了模型不稳定性这个特征，另外在描述技术创新的作用时，同时引入了基于“学习曲线”的内生技术增长和“自主性”的外生技术进步，这些处理方法都让模型变得更真实。3、在系统动力学分析中引入了政策因素作为系统的内生变量，政府通过控制能源税收来保证能源的可持续发展，而且系统的模拟过程确实做到了完全通过税收的方法保护了环境同时又促进了能源工业的发展。4、强调了个人福利和社会福利的重要性，在动力学模拟的过程中引入福利函数作为检验系统是否良好的标准，并且采用了福利经济学方法研究能源问题。5、建立了中国能源需求的协整模型，通过了检验并对影响能源需求的因素进行了分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Whereas the environmental issues concerned all over the world have close relationship with the energy production and application, it is effective and immediate to resort to energy department for solution to the sustainable development problem. Therefore, in reference of the “Sustainable Energy Development” concept put forward by Munasinghe(1994), the author explores to combine it with policy issues of energy, economy and environment to set up a conformitive decision-making frame of 3E to support the exploitation and employment strategy of national natural resources and thus bring sustainable energy development into the programming and implementation of policies, taking economic efficiency, energy efficiency, energy saving and environmental protection into consideration.Based on this notion, the thesis focuses on:1. Researching energy development on the basis of sustainable development and especially putting environmental element as the main research body, not a simple testing criterion, therefore carrying out the notion of coordinating energy development with economic development and environmental protection. Meanwhile, in the process of applying system dynamics method to build a model to study 3E system, the majority of the parameters are considered as endogenous variables and only a few such as population are regarded as exogenous variables of the system in the model. Therefore, it is the system itself that adjusts each subsystem to keep balance and keep sustainable development. That is also the feature and advantage of adopting system dynamics method to study 3E system.2. Introducing the influence of adjustment and perception delays according to the characteristics of energy capital investment to add disequilibrium characteristic into the model because of the disunity of the present expectation profits and the real profits of the investment. In addition, the author introduces the endogenous technology progress based on “learning curve” and the autonomous exogenous technology progress when describing the function of technological creation. All those approaches get the model more believable. 3. Introducing policy factor as the endogenous variable of the system in the <WP=6>analysis, that is, the government guarantees the sustainable development of energy through energy tax control. Besides, the simulation process of the system realizes the simultaneity of protecting environment and boosting energy industry development fully by taxation.4. Introducing welfare function as testing criterion in the process of dynamics simulation and adopting welfare economics method to study energy issues and thus emphasizing the importance of individual welfare and social welfare.5. Building the cointegration model of China energy demand which proves to be effective and analyzing the factors affecting energy demand.更多还原