中国农业现代化路径选择分析

【作者】 白跃世；

【导师】 白永秀；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 政治经济学， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 现代化是一种世界潮流，中国概莫能外。随着21世纪钟声的敲响，早日实现现代化成为全国人民的期盼。中国能否在2050年前后实现现代化，关键在于农业能否实现现代化，因为中国是以农业立国且二元经济结构极其显明的国家，50％的劳动力以农业为生，农民70％的收入来自农业。农业兴，百业兴；农民富，国家富；农村稳，天下稳。可以断言，在中国没有农业的现代化，就没有整个国民经济的现代化。 经过几十年特别是改革开放20多年的发展，我国农业虽然取得了很大成就，但并未真正跳出传统农业的框架，农业基础薄弱，综合生产能力不高，比较利益很低。几十年来，农业始终是让人难以放心的产业，“农业危机”的阴影一直若明若暗地显现在我国迅速推进的现代化进程中。不仅如此，影响中国农业现代化的最基本的两大矛盾(人多地少的矛盾、小生产与大市场的矛盾)不仅是刚性的，而且越来越严峻。令人焦虑的是现有的路径选择已难以取得预期的效果。所以研究在开放经济条件下，特别是中国加入WTO以后农业现代化的路径十分迫切。 本文将中国农业现代化的路径选择分析置于市场经济和世界经济一体化的大背景之中，运用多种学科(经济学、政治学、社会学、人口学等)和多种分析方法(定性与定量分析相结合、动态与静态分析相结合、制度分析、历史分析等方法)，突破时空的局限，在对农业现代化路径选择理论深入研究的基础上，最终锁定了中国农业现代化的路径。 本文共分七个部分。第一部分是导言，主要介绍选题的背景及意义、研究方法和论文创新点。第二部分是文献回顾与评析，通过对国内外学者对农业现代化路径选择理论已有研究成果的综述，评析其缺陷，选择本文研究的切入点。第三部分是理论研究，在对现代化和农业现代化基本范畴研究的基础上，确立了农业现代化路径选择的基本原则。第四部分是国外农业现代化路径选择的经验与启示，旨在为中国提供借鉴。第五、第六部分系实证研究，运用农业现代化路径选择理论对中国农业现代化的两大尖锐矛盾进行深刻分析后，对中国农业现代化的路径进行抉择。第七部分是论文的基本结论和有待进一步深入研究的问题。摘要 本文研究的成果主要包括两个层面:理论研究层面和实证研究层面。在理论研究部分，首先，对国内外学术界对农业现代化路径选择理论进行系统的回顾与评析，通过分析认为，现有的研究成果存在着诸如强烈的个人偏好、路径选择的单项性、外部性等缺陷，提出农业现代化的路径选择是一个复杂的、多维的过程，其实现是多种因素互相作用、藕合的结果，其构成是一个相互弥补、相互促进的组合，单项的路径选择从根本上解决不了农业现代化问题。同时提出，尽管农业现代化的实现需要多轮驱动，但最根本的还是要从农业内部找原因，想对策。其次，对农业现代化及中国农业现代化两大重要范畴作了新的界定，将农业现代化分为经典农业现代化、后现代农业现代化及新农业现代化，并对各个阶段进行了定性定量分析。在此基础上对中国农业现代化所处阶段进行了新的判断，提出中国农业现代化的混合性质，即中国农业现代化的合二为一性，中国既要实现经典农业现代化又要实现新现代化。第三，在运用“路径依赖”理论和“交易费用”理论对农业现代化路径选择分析时，提出了农业现代化路径选择的五大原则:路径选择的技术先导性、路径选择的效率性、路径选择的阶段性、路径选择的差异性、路径选择的市场性，使农业现代化的路径选择有了比较科学的依据。 在实证研究部分，首先，在对世界一些国家和地区农业现代化路径选择经验借鉴的基础上，通过对我国半个世纪农业现代化路径选择轨迹的反思与检讨，特别是对我国目前农业现代化面临的两大尖锐矛盾深刻分析后，认为由于渐进改革的固有缺陷及制度意识刚性的滞阻，现有的农业现代化路径具有强烈的“路径依赖”特征，突出表现是重社会和政治稳定功能，轻利益和效率功能，提出目前中国农业现代化路径的最优选择是走制度创新之路，这样，既能跳出“路径依赖”的陷阱，又能最大限度地降低制度损益和交易费用。其次，通过多次博弈，锁定了中国农业现代化路径的现实选择，即在深化土地制度改革的基础上走产业化之路。在对土地产权制度分析的基础上，深刻论证了“土地股份制”是农村土地制度改革的趋势，并对土地股份制的实施进行了方案设计，同时对其多方面效应作了详尽阐述。在对“产业化”的一片喝彩声中，冷静地分析了农业产业化的风险，提出了规避风险的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Modernization is a world- wide trend which China is also experiencing. With the coming of the 21st century, the Chinese people are eager to achieve modernization as soon as possible. Agricultural modernization is the key to the overall modernization in China around the year of 2050. That’s because China is an agriculture -based country in which dual economy is very noticeable. Fifty percent of its labors live on agriculture and seventy of the peasants’ income comes from agriculture. All things will be prosperous if agriculture prospers. The whole country will be rich if famers are rich. The whole country will be stable if the rural areas are stable. It can be concluded that without agriculture modernization, it would be impossible to achieve the modernization of the whole national economy.After the development of several decades especially after the implementation of the opening up and reform policy for more than 20 years, China’s agriculture hasn’t stepped out of the framework of the traditional agriculture despite the great achievements it has made. The agricultural base is still rather frail. The comprehensive productive capacity and agricultural comparative advantage is low. For several decades, agriculture has been a worrying industry. The shadow of "agricultural crisis" has manifested itself directly or indirectly in fast process of our country’s modernization. Besides these, the two basic contradictions influencing Chinese agricultural modernization are inflexible and becoming more serious. One of the contradiction exists between large population and small amount of arable land. The other is between small ~ scale production and large - scale market. What worries us now is that the present approach cannot accomplish the anticipated effect. Therefore, it is urgent to find a way to agricultural modernization in open economy and especially after China’s WTO entry. This thesis deeply analysizes China’s agricultural path choosing under the condition of market economy and integration of the global economy. Making full use of different kinds of disciplines(economics, politics, sociology, etc. )and various sorts of analysizing methods(institutional analysis, historical analysis) , breaking through the limitation of time and space, the author decides on China’s agricultural path choosing.The thesis consists of seven sections. Section 1: This part is an introduction which mainly introduce the bachground and meaning of the subject, researching method, new ideas in the thesis. Section 2: This part gives a systematic review and analysis of the theory of agricultural modernization path choosing which domestic and overseas scholars havemade, the author chooses his reseach point. Section 3: this part is theoretical study. Having researched the basic category of modernization and agricultural modernization, the thesis establishes the basic principles of agricultural modernization path choosing. Section 4: this part is about experiences and enlightenment of agricultural modernization, path choosing from some foreign countries, and what and how China can learn fromThem. Section 5& 6: these two parts are empirical study. With selectional theory of agricultural midernization path choosing, the thesis deeply analyse two sharp contradiction in China’s agricultural modernization, the thesis gives its choice. Section 7: The last part is the basic conclusion of the thesis and some problems needed further researching.The study in this thesis mainly includes two parts: theoretical study and empirical study. In the section of theoretical exploration, a systematic review and analysis of the theory of agricultural modernization path choosing which domestic and overseas scholars have made. After the analysis, it is concluded that insufficiency can be found in the available study results such as strong individual preferences, being single - handed and external path choosing. It is proposed that path choosing be a complicated and multi - dimensional process. It is a result of many interactive factors, whose formation is a reali更多还原