【作者】 任锦鸾；

【导师】 顾培亮；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 创新是国家强盛、社会发展的主要推动力，创新问题的研究是与时代同步的、内容不断更新的长期课题。 创新活动常常表现出不确定性、涌现性等复杂系统的特征，从复杂性科学的角度对创新系统进行系统化深入研究具有重要的理论和现实意义，这也是当前研究中明显的不足之处。本文以创新系统的现有研究成果为基础，结合最新的复杂性理论和研究方法，对创新系统的基本机理及其对技术和社会的影响进行了较全面和深入的研究。主要内容如下：1. 在对创新现有研究成果综合分析的基础上，指出创新理论的发展与社会经济的跌宕起伏息息相关，澄清了与创新相关的各概念之间的联系，明确界定了创新系统的内涵。2. 阐述了研究复杂系统的理论和方法，重点介绍了复杂适应系统理论和它的计算机模拟平台——SWARM。在分析创新系统复杂性的基础上，证实了创新系统是一个复杂适应系统，提出用复杂适应系统理论和方法对创新系统的机理进行研究具有必要性和可行性。3. 基于复杂适应系统理论，结合自组织理论和进化理论分析了技术复杂性的起源，指出创新主体间的相互作用和创新系统与环境的相互适应是导致创新系统涌现出复杂性的主要原因，并对这两种行为进行了定量化描述。在此基础上提出了描述创新系统的复合三链螺旋模型，对创新系统动力学进行了定量化描述。4. 结合中国创新活动现状，运用SWARM模拟工具对创新系统的形成、演化过程进行了模拟，这一方面实现了对创新系统理论的提炼和验证，证实了在创新合作中形成的创新网络是最合理的创新组织方式，另一方面又为创新政策的制定提供了科学的依据。5. 阐述了利用N-K模型分析创新系统的复杂性、评估创新系统现状的定量化方法。运用MATLAB工具在模拟建模的基础上分析了创新网络中创新主体之间的相互作用对技术进化的影响。系统化研究了技术进化中出现技术锁定和锁出的条件，指出创新主体的创新意识在技术进化中起着关键作用。6. 基于创新系统复杂性的主要原理，提出了从内生技术进步和外生技术进步两方面相结合来考察创新对社会的影响的思想，基于技术进步对我国能源供需结构影响的案例说明了测度创新对社会影响的定量化方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Innovation is the main impetus to the prosperity of a country and the progress of the society. The research on innovation problems is a long task whose contents are related to times. Uncertainty and emergency can often be found in innovation actions. Researching on innovation system from the point of complexity science is very importance in both theory and practice, however, is not done sufficiently. Based on recent achievement of innovation system and using the latest complexity theories and methods, this paper provided a full and deep study on basic mechanism of innovation system and it’s influences on technology and society. The main contents are as follows:1. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the fruit about innovation, it was pointed out that the development of innovation theory has direct relation to the changes of economy and society. The relations between some concepts interrelated to innovation were clarified, and the intension of innovation system was defined.2. The theories and methods researching complex system were expounded, especially complex adaptive system’s theory and simulation tool-SWARM. Making use of these theories and methods the complexity of innovation system was analyzed, and it was proved that the innovation system is a complex adaptive system. Consequently, it was necessary and feasible to study innovation system by using complex adaptive system theories.3. From the view of complex adaptive system’s theory, combined the theories of self-organization and evolution, the origin of technology’s complexity was analyzed. It was pointed out that the reciprocity among innovation agents and the mutual adaptation between innovation system and its environment are the main reasons of innovation system’s complexity. The behaviors of innovation agents were described by quantitative methods. Based on the analysis of innovation system’s principle, the compound triple helix model of innovation system was proposed, and its dynamics was depicted.Integrating the status of Chinese innovation, and using SWARM-a software to study complex system-the running of innovation system was simulated. The simulation, on one hand, refined and validated our innovation theories, and proved innovation network is the best organizing mode for innovation, on the other hand<WP=4>4. provided scientific gist for establishing innovation policies.5. The quantificational method that applying N-K model to analyze the complexity of innovation system and evaluate its state was explained. The effects of reciprocities among innovation agents on the evolution of technology were analyzed through modeling and simulation. From researching the conditions of technology’s lock-in and lock-out we found that innovation agents’ innovation consciousness is the key factor in the evolution of technology.6. Based on the main principle of innovation system’s complexity, the idea that reviewing innovation’s effect on the development of society from both endogenous and exogenous was put forward. The calculating methods of this idea were illuminated through a case that how does the technology progress influences the structure of energy supply and demand of China.更多还原