改革开放以来我国货币政策有效性及其强弱的实证研究——基于1978～1999年的计量分析

【作者】 毛剑峰；

【导师】 杨义群；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 农业经济管理学， 2002， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国市场经济体制的不断完善和发展，货币政策逐渐成为了宏观经济调控的重要手段，并在宏观经济活动中扮演了一重要的角色。 在本文，作者主要考察了我国改革开放20多年来，货币政策的有效性及其强弱。为能从实证角度清楚地论述这一问题，论文前面还从理论角度进行了分析，因此，本论文大致由以下四个部分组成：一是理论综述；二是改革开放20多年来，我国实际宏观经济的运行情况和货币政策的实施情况；三是我国货币政策有效性的实证分析；四是我国货币政策有效性强弱(即货币政策效果)的实证分析。 第一部分(第一章)：论文首先在AD-AS模型框架下，从古典宏观经济学派、凯恩斯学派、新古典宏观经济学派、新凯恩斯学派等四大学派出发，分别阐述了它们各自的货币政策观；然后，在IS-LM模型框架下，从静态角度，论述了造成货币政策有效性强弱的各因素(即货币政策效果的因素分析)；从动态角度，还分析了理性预期的冲击对货币政策效果的影响。 第二部分(第二、三章)：论文的第二章，从对GDP总量和GDP增长率两指标的分析，论述了我国改革开放20多年来，宏观经济的基本运行情况；第三章，按第二章分析所给出的经济周期，分别对各周期内货币政策的实施情况进行阐述。 第三部分(第四、五章)：论文的第四章，主要是从时域角度，对我国货币政策的有效性(即货币与产出的关系)进行实证；第五章，则从频域角度，利用谱分析技术对我国货币政策的有效性进行分析。 第四部分(第六、七、八、九章)：论文的第六章，从产品市场的角度，分析了消费、投资、进出口等因素对我国货币政策有效性强弱的影响；第七章，从货币市场的角度，分析了货币需求与货币政策有效性强弱的关系。因此还分析了利率市场化问题；第八章，在IS-LM模型框架下，从实证角度，静态分析了我国货币政策有效性的强弱，同时，还利用状态空间模型，动态分析了我国货币政策有效性的强弱；第九章，在AS-AD模型框架下，也从实证角度，分析了我国货币政策有效性及其强弱。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development and improvement of the country market economy system,monetary policy has become an important method of the macro-economy control and began to play and important role in the macroeconomic activities.in this dissertation the author mainly examined the effectiveness and its intensity of the monetary policy in china,in the past reformatory twenty-two years. In the first part of the article the author discuss the issue from the theoritical aspection so as to make the empirical analysis clearly,we can see the article consists of four main parts:(I)a summary of the theory involved;(II)the functioning of the countries macroeconomy and the application of the monetary policy (III)An empirical analysis of the effectivenesss of the monetary policy;(IV)An empirical analysis on the effective intensity of monetary policy effectiveness.PART Ⅰ(chapter 1) The chapter begin with a discussion of the different views on monetary policy of the classical macroeconomy of the new-classical macroeconomy the keinens economyand the new-keinens economy on the AD-AS circumference;then article framework of IS-LM model the author analyze the factors that affect the effectiveness of the monetary policy and the influence of rational expectations to the monetary policy’s effectiveness.PART Ⅱ(chapter 2-3) In chapter 2,analyse the country’s function of the the macroeonomy in the past twenty years by using indictors GDP and the growth rate of GDP. In chapter 3 clarifies the aperation of the monetary policy in different economic cycles.PART Ⅲ(chapter 4-5) Chapter 4 made an empirical analysis on the relationship between the currency and production in china. Chapter 5 analyze the effectiveness of Chinese monetary policy by spectral approachPART Ⅳ(chapter 6-9) Chapter 6 studies the factors consumption. In import and export which may influence the effectiveness of the monetary policy from the products market aspection. Chapter 7 analyze the relation between the money demand and monetary policy and the interest marketation. Chapter 8 staticly analyze the effectiveness and its intensity of Chinese monetary policy in the IS-LM model,and dynamicly analyze the effectiveness and its intensity of Chinese monetary policy in the state space model. Chapter 9 also make an empirical analyse on effectiveness and its intensity of Chinese monetary policy in the AS-AD model.更多还原