【作者】 张清郎；

【导师】 尹世杰； 王裕国；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 消费经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,经济总量不断扩大,综合国力逐渐增强。伴随着经济的发展和城乡居民收入水平的提高,人民生活从贫困步入了小康和富裕行列,居民消费水平不断提高、消费规模也不断扩大。但与世界上发达国家相比,我国人均GDP水平和居民消费水平都还很低；与经济增长速度相比,居民消费的增速还明显偏慢。同时,由于经济发展水平的不平衡和城乡二元结构的存在,不同地区、不同群体、不同行业以及城乡之间的消费水平还有很大的差距。1998年亚洲金融危机和2008年全球金融危机的爆发,出口美国、日本和欧盟等经济发达国家的外需乏力,我国的宏观经济表现出了总需求不足特别是消费需求不足的特征,经济增速明显减退。1998年下半年开始,我国实施了积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,2007年,提出了经济增长方式由“主要依靠投资、出口拉动”向“依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动”的转变。2009年,我国出台了“扩内需、保增长”的一揽子刺激计划,扩大投资4万亿。同时,着力刺激国内需求特别是消费需求。“十二五”规划更是明确了扩大消费需求是我国现阶段乃至今后相当长时期的战略方针和基本立足点,是拉动我国经济快速增长、和谐社会建设的根本途径。本文从我国目前消费需求不足的现实状况出发,从宏观和微观结合的角度探求影响消费需求的因素结构。研究整体思路以“存在问题——影响分析——对策建议”为基本路线,综合了消费经济学、消费社会学、计量经济学和人口学的基本理论知识,实现比较深入地剖析消费需求影响因素的研究目的。本文首先阐述了马克思主义消费理论、西方经济学消费理论、市场经济条件下消费需求实现理论的主要内容,对已有的国内外学术研究成果进行归纳总结。进而分析了我国消费需求的现状特征,对消费需求的影响因素进行了结构化分类,对影响因素的作用机理进行了数理推导,建立了多因素综合影响的计量经济学模型。作为研究的结果,对扩大消费需求的对策措施进行了总结。全文共分六章进行论述。第1章导论。阐述研究选题的背景与意义,介绍了研究方法和研究主要内容,总结了研究的创新之处以及存在的不足。第2章研究基础理论概述。对研究的相关概念和基础理论进行了简要概述。具体内容是界定消费需求和结构分析的内涵,对马克思主义消费理论、西方经济学消费理论、市场经济条件下消费需求实现理论进行了简单的介绍和梳理,归纳了国内外学者对消费需求及影响因素研究的相关学术观点。第3章我国消费需求的现状特征。分析了我国消费需求的目前状况：从纵向历史变化来看,社会总需求存在着国内需求与国外需求、投资需求与消费需求、政府消费与居民消费、城镇消费与农村消费的结构失衡。从横向国际比较来看,我国的消费率和居民消费率还明显偏低。第4章消费需求影响因素的结构分类。影响消费需求的宏观和微观因素种类繁多,将各种社会经济因素进行综合分析和结构化分类。认为影响消费需求的因素是由消费主体、支付能力、消费意愿和实现环境等四个方面构成的一个有机整体结构。具体结构包括：消费主体因素。作为消费主体的人口,其规模和结构直接影响着消费需求。人口规模所表现出的人口数量直接决定消费的规模和潜在容量。人口结构主要分析人口的年龄构成、人口在地理上的分布和密集程度等,人口结构对消费需求的结构和市场格局产生深刻影响。支付能力因素。支付能力表现在绝对能力和相对能力两个方面,绝对能力是由消费主体的收入水平决定的,相对能力由收入的差异程度——收入差距来反映,支付能力的这两方面状况都取决于收入分配格局。消费意愿因素。由于受价值观念、宗教信仰、风俗习惯等消费文化观念的影响,即使在同等收入条件下,消费主体的消费意愿也会有着很大的差异。同时,消费意愿还取决于不确定性风险下人们对未来收入支出的预期。实现环境因素。消费需求是消费意愿的客观实现,实现过程要受到自然、经济和社会等客观条件的制约。这三个方面的因素主要表现为自然资源禀赋,基础设施和产业结构,消费政策和法治环境等。第5章消费需求影响因素的作用机理。首先,通过比较严密的数理推导,分析人口的年龄构成和地理分布、收入差距、收入支出预期、产业结构等单因素对消费需求的作用机理。然后,基于消费需求影响因素结构,建立了多因素综合影响的计量经济学模型,并用实证数据对计量模型进行检验。结果表明模型均较好地拟合了居民消费率变量,使得影响因素结构分类的合理性得到一定程度的支持。第6章扩大消费需求的对策措施。在影响因素结构分类的基础上,明确了扩大消费需求对策措施的具体内容：调整消费主体是扩大消费需求的基础,提高支付能力是扩大消费需求的核心,增强消费意愿是扩大消费需求的关键,优化实现环境是扩大消费需求的保障。扩大消费需求对于我国经济社会发展具有重要意义。本文的创新点主要体现在以下四个方面：1.比较全面地分析了影响消费需求的社会经济因素,将各类因素进行了结构化的分类,分为消费主体、支付能力、消费意愿和实现环境等四个方面。2.强调了消费主体因素对消费需求具有的重大影响,把人口政策、老龄社会和人口分布作为影响消费需求的重要方面来进行研究。3.分析了人口的年龄构成和地理分布、收入差距、收入支出预期、产业结构等因素影响消费需求的作用机理,建立了影响消费率的多因素综合影响的计量模型。4.明确了扩大消费需求对策措施的具体内容：调整消费主体、提高支付能力、增强消费意愿和优化实现环境。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up, China’s economic development has made remarkable achievements, the economy expanded, national comprehensive strength is gradually increased. Along with economic development and the improvement of urban and rural residents’ income levels, the standard of people living comes from poverty into the well-off:steady increase in the level of consumption, the scale of consumption continues to expand, consumption structure gradually improve.However, compared with the developed countries in the world, China’s per capita GDP level and the consumer level is still quite low, compared to the speed of economic growth and investment growth, the residents’ consumption growth is significantly slower, the rate of contribution to economic growth is significantly lower. Meanwhile, as the imbalance of economic development and urban-rural dual structure exists, there are wide gap of consumption differences between urban and rural areas and as well as between groups and industries.After the outbreak of the1998Asian financial crisis and the2008global financial crisis, demand of the United States, Japan and the European Union and other developed economies decreased, China’s macroeconomic development was affected by the lack of aggregate demand especially the problem of lack of consumer demand,, economic growth has significantly diminished.From the second half of1998, China carried out proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy.2007China explicitly carried out that we would changed from rely mainly on investment and exports to driven coordination which is rely on consumption, investment and export, the policy of expanding domestic demand which could promote economic growth pattern.. In2009, China promulgated the plan called "expanding domestic demand, ensure the growth ",meant to expand investment to4trillion. Expand consumer demand will become a long-term strategic principle and basic standpoint of our country at this stage even over a long term to promote economic development, and also the fundamental way of stimulating rapid economic growth, and then build a harmonious society.In this paper, the author bases on China’s current situation that lackness of consumer demand, makes structured classification of various socio-economic factors affecting consumer demand, focuses on analysis of its causes, explores the factors mechanism affecting consumer demand, then clarifies and expands the selection of consumer demand path. The whole idea based on the train of thought" Problems-Impact analysis-Suggestions"for the basic line of research, uses theory comprehensively on consumer economics, consumer sociology, econometrics and demography, achieved objectives of in-depth analysis of influence factors on the impact of consumer demand.This paper describes the consumption theory of Marxism, western economic theory of consumption, the theory of consumer demand achieving under the market economy, summarizes the existing domestic and international academic research, classifies the influence factors on consumer demand, gets the mechanism of factors through mathematical derivation, establishes the econometric model of the comprehensive effect of multiple factors; as the result of the study,the author summarize the path of consumer demand expansion. The text is divided into six chapters.Chapter1Introduction. Elaborated the background and significance of this research, introduce the research methods and the main content, summed up the study’s innovation and as well as the shortcomings.Chapter2Summary of the research-based. A brief overview of related concept and theoretical basis. The specific content is defined consumer demand and structure analysis, this part also described the consumption theory of Marxism, Western economic theory of consumption, the theory of consumer demand achieving under the market economy briefly, combing summarized the domestic and foreign scholars on the academic point of view of the consumer demand relatively as well as the internal mechanism of it.Chapter3Current characteristics of consumer demand in China. Analysis of the current status of China’s consumption demand:from portrait view of historical changes, there is a structural imbalances caused by total social demand, foreign demand, domestic demand, investment demand and consumer demand, government consumption and household consumption, consumption of urban and rural consumption. From the horizontal international comparison, China’s consumption demand is clearly insufficient.Chapter4Structure of factors that affect consumer demand. It’s a wide range of Macro and micro factors that could affect consumer demand,the writer makes a comprehensive analysis of various socio-economic factors and then gets a structured classification, the factors that could affect the consumer demand constitute a organic whole structure which include four areas as consumer subject, the ability to pay, willingness to consume and conditions to achieve. The specific structure includes:Consumer subject. The number and structure of population make a direct impact on consumer demand, population size which demonstrates the population,determines the size and potential capacity of the consumer. Population structure, including age structure, geographical distribution and density and other. Demographic structure has profound impact on the structure of consumer demand as well as on the market structure.Ability to pay. Affordability expressed in two aspects:absolute and relative, absolute ability to pay is determined by the main part’s income level, relative ability is determined by the degree of difference of income-reflection of the income gap, these two ability both depends on the situation of the pattern of income distribution.The ability to pay is determined by the income level of the consumer subject,income levels depend on the allocation of social relations. So income levels, difference between income and so on have a tremendous impact on consumer demand.Consumer perceptions. The subject of consumption is affected by values, religion, customs, and other consumer culture, people’s willingness to consume have a lot of difference even in the same income conditions. Consumption will also depend on the future expectations of income and expenditure, the weaker consumer wishes.Conditions to achieve. The consumer demand is the objective to consumption will, will be constrainted by natural, economic and social objective conditions. These three aspects performance in real are mainly for the natural resource endowment constraints, the level of productivity and industrial structure, consumer policy and legal environment and so on.Chapter5The mechanism of the factors action in affecting consumer demand. First, by rigorous mathematical derivation, analyses the mechanism of action by the population’s age structure, geographic distribution, income inequality, income and expenditure expectations, industry structure factors. Then, based on the factors structure of the impact of consumer demand, established the econometric model of comprehensive effect of multiple factors. The results show that both models are fitted well with the level of consumption variables, making the structure classification of influence factors reasonable to some extent support.Chapter6Path selection of expanding consumption demand. On the basis of the analysis on the factor structure classification and the internal mechanism, make it clear of path selection of expanding consumption demand, expansion of consumption is the main basis for the expansion of consumer demand, improve the ability to pay is the core of the expansion of consumption, and enhance consumer willingness is the key, to achieve optimal conditions is the guarantee for the expansion of consumer demand protection.Expanding consumer demand makes great significance for China’s economic and social development. Innovation in this article is mainly reflected in the following four areas:1, A comprehensive analysis of the factors affecting consumer demand structure, structured classification of the various types of factors, divided into four kinds:consumer subject, the ability to pay, willingness to consume and conditions to achieve.2, Emphasizes the consumption of the main factors’significant impact on the expansion of consumer demand, emphasizes the population policy, aging society and population distribution as important aspects of affecting consumer demand for research.3, Analysis of the mechanism of action of the factors affecting consumer demand, the factors such as age composition of the population and geographic distribution, income gap, income and expenditure expectations, industrial structure and other factors, established a measurement model of multi factors of the consumption rate.4, Clear the specific content of path selection in expanding consumer demand specific content:adjust the main part of consumer, improve the ability to pay, enhance consumer willingness and optimize the achieving conditions.更多还原