【作者】 倪尧；

【导师】 吴次芳；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2013， 博士

【副题名】以上海世博会为例

【摘要】 上世纪70年代以来,“全球化”浪潮席卷整个世界。在全球化的大环境下,城市发展资源在城际间流动迅速,以资源禀赋为核心竞争力的城市正逐渐失去原有的竞争优势。因此,大多数城市开始寻求营销型策略来实现城市的“再发展”。城市重大事件因其在城市经济转型、社会结构调整、城市功能升级、竞争力提升等方面的显著加速助推效应,成为新时代各大城市发展青睐的有效战略工具。我国改革开放以来,经济社会的高速发展与全球化、市场化相融合,城市间竞争更加激烈,迫切需要实现城市发展转型。因此,对重大事件的重视程度也与日俱增。重大事件对城市发展的助推效应大多与城市土地利用息息相关,随着城市土地利用变化、政策及其影响方面的研究不断深入,如何以重大事件为契机,利用其综合影响力,实现土地利用结构的合理优化与城市的可持续发展,是当前备受关注的研究焦点。在对城市重大事件的研究中,从微观层面,特别是城市内部辖区尺度上,探讨城市重大事件对城市土地利用变化影响的实证分析仍然非常缺乏。因此,将重大事件对城市土地利用变化的影响作为研究对象,从理论和实证相结合的角度,探究重大事件对城市土地利用变化的影响效应及其发生机理,建立城市土地利用变化及其机制研究的新视角,从而为城市经济转型、功能升级和结构优化提供理论依据、技术支撑和政策建议。本文的主要内容包括：第一章,首先分析了研究背景和意义,明确重大事件在全球化和城市发展转型中的重要推动效应,并据此提出本文的研究问题和研究的具体架构。根据背景和意义分析,本文确立的研究框架为：将重大事件对城市土地利用变化的影响作为研究对象,探讨城市土地利用变化的影响测度,研究重大事件对城市土地利用变化的“浅层”和“深层”的影响效应,并深入探讨影响发生的机理,最后提出相应的应对策略。第二章,通过对国内外相关研究进展的综合评述,揭示我国在重大事件对城市土地利用影响实证研究中的不足。城市土地利用变化及其驱动力研究一直是土地利用／覆被变化研究的重点,但在城市发展新阶段,研究的视角和方法都应有所突破和创新。本文在对已有研究进行梳理与归纳的基础上,围绕重大事件对城市土地利用影响的主题,构建了一个“两圈两维”的分析框架,即直接影响圈、间接影响圈；经济环境效应维度、政治社会学的机理分析维度。第三章,首先分析了世博会对城市发展中经济增长、政府管理、社会文化和生态环境等四个方面的正面和负面的影响,并明确这些影响最直接的改变大部分都源自城市土地利用变化。其次,分析了开埠、太平天国运动、上海特别市设立、浦东开发等历史重大事件在上海市城市发展过程中的推动效应。最后,分析了本研究的典型案例——上海2010年世博会的概况及对城市的综合影响,包括土地利用结构与格局的变化、城市空间结构调整与形态拓展,以及城市的经济规模扩张与人口分布变化等。第四章,采用土地利用转移矩阵和景观格局指数等方法定量分析了世博会的直接影响圈(世博园区)内土地利用的数量、结构及空间布局的变化特征。结果表明：工业、仓储、居住用地的置换迅速,尤其是大量工业、仓储用地转向城市绿地、商业、商务和文化用地等；土地利用的空间异质性增大,均衡度有所提高,用地形状更加规则,集聚度明显增大。第五章,以重点用地类型——工业用地为对象,采用景观指数法和Logistic回归模型对世博园区的间接影响圈(中心城区)内工业用地空间格局演变及其驱动力进行定量分析。结果表明：中心区工业用地演变具有缓慢增长到某一点后又不断减少(先增后减)、向外迁移、多核心集聚的特征；工业用地变化的驱动机制为,在世博背景下包括级差地租、交通运输、集聚效益和政策规划等因素的综合作用。第六章,在城市扩张及市域土地利用结构分析的基础上,采用变异系数、锡尔系数与环境库兹涅茨曲线方法,从区县尺度来分析世博会影响城市土地利用变化的经济与环境效应。结果表明：在世博期间,园区选址与建设,基础设施、人口与产业郊区化、产业升级以及环境保护的加强影响了上海市域的城市空间结构；各区县人均经济差异与地均经济差异明显扩大,且伴随各区县用地结构调整的程度和方式的不同,呈现出不同的经济与环境耦合规律。第七章,从政治社会学视角探讨了世博会影响上海市土地利用变化的机理。研究表明：政权力、资本力和社会共治力构成了城市演化的主要力量,重大事件影响土地利用的结果是三方合力共同形成的。上海世博会影响土地利用的利益冲突和博弈直接体现在政治号召“举国体制”下的各方配合和世博园区的土地利用变化。在举国体制确保“后墙不倒”的前提下,城市政府协调、规划让步、社区单位与居民理性配合等实现了各方利益的非零和博弈。第八章,提出重大事件对城市土地利用管理的政策启示。研究表明,城市在选择重大事件作为战略措施时,在事前、事中和事后都应该采取相应的土地利用策略与之对应。事前要进行科学评估、明确目标、合理定位,尤其是要将重大事件的定位与城市发展相契合；事中主要落实执行因重大事件而产生的规划调整,改变“大拆大建”思路而发展“2.5产业”,推动城市中心区土地利用变化的结构调整；在事后,要突破经济窘境,寻求文化、生态功能转型的新路径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the1970s, the tide of "globalization" swept across the world. In the globalized development environment, the urban development resources flow quickly between the neighboring cities and the cities with resources endowment advantage gradually lost their competitive edge. Therefore, most cities began to seek marketing-based strategies to achieve their "re-development", while the urban Mega-event became effective strategy tools used by most cities for development in a new era because of their significant acceleration and boosting effect at the aspects of cities’economic transformation and social restructuring, functional upgrading, competitiveness improvement, etc.. Since the reform and opening-up in China, the rapid development of the economy and society has integrated with globalization, marketization, urbanization, and the inter-city development has become more competitive, with an urgent need to implement the transformation of city development. Therefore, more and more emphasis has been put on the Mega-event. The catalytic effect of the Mega-event on city development is closely related to land use. With urban land use change and the deepening of research on its driving forces, the current focus of concern is to take the opportunity of the Mega-event to achieve a win-win effect between city development and land use.In the research studies of the Mega-event, there is little empirical study of the effect the Mega-event has on the urban land use change from the micro perspective, especially on the jurisdiction scale. Therefore, this dissertation, taking the effect of the Mega-event on urban land use change as the object of study, explores such effect and its occurrence mechanism through the combination of theoretical and technical means. In theory and practice, this dissertation proposes a new perspective for the study of urban land use change and its mechanism; and provides a theoretical basis, technical support and policy proposal for cities’ economic transformation, functional upgrading and structural optimization.This dissertation’s main content includes: In chapter I, first of all, the dissertation analyzes the background and significance of this study, clearly points out the important promotion effect of the Mega-event in globalization and the development and transformation of the city, and accordingly proposes questions and specific framework for the study of this dissertation. Then, according to the analysis of the background and significance, this dissertation, taking the effect of the Mega-event on urban land use change as the object of study, discusses the effect measure of the Mega-event on urban land use change, probes into the influential effect of the Mega-event on urban land use change from the " shallow " and " deep " layers, and explores its occurrence mechanism in depth, further optimizing and improving the urban land use.In chapter Ⅱ, this dissertation reveals the inadequacies found in empirical study of the effect the Mega-event has on the urban land use through making a comment on related domestic and foreign studies. Urban land use change and the study of its driving forces have always been the study focus of the land use/land cover change, but in the new phase of urban development, a breakthrough and an innovation should be made for study perspectives and methods. Through combing and summarizing the existing research, this dissertation constructs a "two circles, two dimensions" analysis mode around the theme of impact effects of urban mega-event on land use.In chapter Ⅲ, firstly, the dissertation analyzes the positive and negative effects of four aspects the World Expo has on economic growth, government management, social culture and ecological environment in urban development, and clearly points out that the most direct change brought by these effects stems from urban land use change. Secondly, the dissertation analyzes the boosting effect of the historical Mega-events such as Port opening, Taiping Rebellion, Setting up of Shanghai as a special city and the development of Pudong on Shanghai development. Finally, the dissertation analyzes the typical case of this study:an overview of Shanghai2010World Expo and its comprehensive effect on the city, including the structure and pattern changes of land use, urban spatial structure adjustment and shape extension as well as urban economic scale expansion and population distribution change. In chapter IV, the dissertation gives a quantitative analysis of the quantity, structure and spatial distribution characteristics of land use change in the direct circle of influence (the Expo site) by adopting the methods of land use transfer matrix and landscape pattern index analysis. The results show that that rapid replacement exists in industrial, warehousing, and residential land use, especially a large amount of industrial, warehouse land turns to urban green space, commercial, business and cultural sites; spatial heterogeneity of land use and the balance degree increase, land shape is more regular, and the degree of agglomeration increases significantly.In chapter V, the dissertation, taking key land type-industrial land as an object, gives an analysis of the spatial pattern change of industrial land and its driving force in the indirect circle of influence (the central urban area), using the landscape index method and Logistic regression model. The results show that the change of industrial land use in the central area is characterized by gradual declining after slow growth, outward migration, and multi-core agglomeration. The driving mechanism for the industrial land change includes the differential rent, transportation, agglomeration benefits and policy planning and other factors.In chapter VI, the dissertation, based on the analysis of urban expansion and land use structure, analyzes the economic and environment effect of the World Expo on urban land use change, using the method of the coefficient of variation, Theil index and environmental Kuznets curve. The results show that during the Expo, the site location and construction, infrastructure construction, the boosting of population, industrial suburbanization and industrial upgrading, and strengthened environmental protection, all above affect the urban spatial structure of Shanghai; the gap between per capita economic differences in the county and regional per capita economic differences significantly widens, and presents different regularities accompanied by the differences among the restructuring degree and ways of the district and county land.In Chapter VII, the dissertation probes into the mechanism of the World Expo’s effect on Shanghai land use change from the perspective of political sociology. The study shows that political power, capital power, and social public governance capabilities constitute the main force of urban evolution, and their resultant force results in the Mega-event’ effect on land use. The effect of Shanghai World Expo on conflicts of interest and game of land use are directly reflected on all parties’ cooperation with each other in the political appeals for "Nationwide System" and land use change in the Expo site. Under the premise that the nationwide system ensures that "back wall does not fall", a non-zero-sum game of all parties’ interest is achieved by the city government coordination, planning concessions, rational cooperation between community institutions and residents.In chapter Ⅷ, the dissertation puts forward policy implications of the Mega-event for the urban land use management. The study shows that when a city takes the Mega-event as strategic measures, it should take the appropriate land use strategies to correspond with them before, during and after such events. Before the events, the city should conduct scientific assessments, set clear objectives, and give a reasonable localization, especially matching the localization of the Mega-event with urban development; during the events, the city should mainly implement planning adjustment due to the events, and it can change the "massive demolition and construction" idea but develop "2.5industry" to promote the structural adjustment of land use change in the urban center; after the events, the city should break the economic dilemma, and seek a new path to cultural and ecological function transformation.更多还原