【作者】 徐肖冰；

【导师】 曲文轶；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 世界经济， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 2008年全球金融危机成为发达国家债务危机的导火索，希腊首先倒下，爱尔兰、葡萄牙、意大利及西班牙也紧随其后深陷危机，发达国家财政的脆弱性一览无遗，政府债务问题广受关注。虽然美国没有同欧元区国家一样爆发债务危机，但美国政府债务也屡创新高，债务上限频繁调整，债务纷争愈演愈烈，导致外界担忧与日俱增。随着婴儿潮一代进入退休年龄，美国财政支出将承受巨大压力，构成政府债务发展的长期挑战。鉴于美国强大的国际地位，美国政府债务持续扩张带来的风险如何，能否可持续发展，将做如何调整，这些问题都将对世界经济和中国经济产生重大影响，这也正是本文试图解答的问题。本文在开放宏观的视角下，运用理论与实证、历史与比较的分析方法，在分析美国政府债务演进的基础上，结合经验数据对美国政府债务的风险和可持续性进行了实证研究，试图揭示美国债务未来发展方向，并对债务调整及其溢出影响进行了深入剖析。全文共分八章。第一章绪论。系统介绍了选题背景和意义，在梳理国内外关于债务理论和美国政府债务问题研究文献的基础上，提出了论文的研究方法、创新之处以及论文框架。第二章政府债务研究的理论框架。首先分析了债务持续扩张的风险理论，包括降低经济增长速度、通货膨胀压力增大以及发生债务危机的可能，随后详细阐述了债务可持续性的理论即政府预算约束理论，最后分析了政府债务的溢出效应。第三章美国政府债务的历史演进。本章主要结合美国1790-2013年的长时段债务数据分析了美国政府债务变化与经济思想之间的关系，重点分析了新自由主义阶段美国政府债务持续扩张的趋势，特别是金融危机以来美国政府债务高涨的特点，为美国政府债务的风险与可持续性研究提供重要背景和现实基础。第四章新世纪以来美国政府债务持续扩张的风险。本章分析了新世纪以来美国政府债务持续扩张的原因，进一步从经济增长、通货膨胀和债务危机三方面分析了债务持续扩张给美国经济带来的风险，同时也将影响美元的国际货币地位并拖累世界经济增长。第五章美国政府债务可持续性的影响因素。以政府预算约束理论为基础，从财政基本赤字、经济增长和国际经济环境三方面分析了影响美国政府债务可持续性的因素。第六章美国政府债务可持续性的实证分析。本章主要从两个方面对美国政府债务的可持续性进行考察，一方面是基于政府预算约束理论，构建财政反应函数对美国政府债务的可持续性进行实证检验；另一方面是基于对各影响因素分析的基础上，对未来美国政府债务走势进行预测。第七章美国政府债务可持续发展的调整与溢出影响。美国若想保证债务的可持续发展，必然要对高额债务进行调整，采取的措施主要包括财政整顿、金融抑制以及稳固美元的货币地位，这些调整措施也将通过贸易、金融和价格三种渠道对世界经济产生溢出影响。第八章美国政府债务与中国。本章在分析中国持有美国政府债务情况的基础上，重点阐述了美国政府债务的调整对中国经济的影响并提出了相关建议。通过研究，本文得出以下结论：首先，美国政府债务从上世纪80年代开始扩张，进入新世纪后迅速膨胀，国际金融危机之后更是屡创新高。从表面上看，财政赤字扩大、经济增速下滑、美元货币地位导致了债务快速增长，但实质上是美国执政两党理念的差异，更是各自秉承不同经济学思想所致。分析来看，美国政府债务仍将持续高涨，这不仅给美国带来经济增速下降、通货膨胀上升甚至爆发债务危机的风险，而且将深刻影响美元的国际货币地位，拖累世界经济增长。其次，以政府预算约束理论为基础，通过运用财政反应函数对美国政府债务可持续性进行实证检验，揭示出美国政府债务可以持续发展，但考虑到失业因素，财政政策的调整效果将受影响，也就是说债务的持续性将减弱。进一步来看，对美国债务未来走势的预测也可发现债务发展前景不容乐观，这就意味着若想保证债务的可持续性，美国不仅要进行相应的财政政策调整，而且要采取包括金融抑制、美元贬值在内的多种举措。最后，作为全球最大经济体，美国财政货币政策将对世界经济产生重大溢出影响。美国持续的财政整顿和美元贬值将通过贸易渠道降低其他国家出口，进而影响各国产出；美国的金融抑制会通过金融渠道减少各国外汇储备、引发资本频繁流动以及挑战其他国家货币政策，形成更广泛的“金融抑制”；美元贬值还可以通过价格渠道将通货膨胀输出到其他国家，尤其是新兴经济体。同样，美国政府债务的调整也将对中国的贸易、外汇储备、资本流动、货币政策等方面产生重要影响，鉴于此，中国政府更应及时进行经济结构调整，降低美国政府债务调整带来的损失。更多还原

【Abstract】 The global financial crisis of2008led to the debt crisis among the developedcountries. Greece fell down first, followed by Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain, whichrevealed the financial fragility of the developed countries and aroused widespreadattention. Although the United States didn’t encounter the debt crisis as the Euro zonecountries, the U.S. government debt has kept reaching the new high levels and the debtupper limit has been adjusted frequently. The debt dispute has escalated that hasincreased the concern of the world about U.S. debt. As the baby boomers are retiring, thefiscal expenditure will experience enormous pressure that will become a long-termchallenge to the U.S. government debt. What is the debt risk of the U.S.? Is the U.S.government debt sustainable? How government can lower the debt levels? Given thestrong international status of America, all these questions will not only influence theworld economy, but also have a significant impact on China. This dissertation tries toanswer these questions.From the open macroeconomics perspective, this paper analyzes the evolvement ofthe U.S. government debt by using theoretical and empirical method, as well as historicaland comparative analysis method, studies the risk and sustainability of the U.S.government debt through empirical data, tries to reveal the future development of thegovernment debt, and examined the debt consolidation and its spillover effects.This dissertation consists of eight chaptersChapter1-introduction. This chapter introduces the background and significance ofthe research, and illustrates the research method, possible innovation and the dissertationstructure based on the understanding of the research on the debt theory and the UnitedStates government debt problems..Chapter2-the relevant theories of government debt. Firstly this chapter introducesthe risk of expanding government debt; then it elaborates the government budgetconstraint theory; lastly it analyzes the spillover effect of government debt under theopen condition.Chapter3-the involvement of the U.S. government debt. This chapter studies the relationship between the changes of U.S. government debt and the economic thoughtsfrom the long term debt data from1790to2013. It focuses on analyzing the trend ofcontinuous expansion of U.S. government debt during new liberalism phase, and furtheranalyzing the new characteristics of the U.S. government debt since the global financialcrisis. This chapter provides an important background and realistic foundation for furtherresearch on risk and sustainability of U.S. government.Chapter4-the risk if the U.S. government debt continues to expand. This chapterdiscusses the reason why the U.S. government debt continues to expand since the newcentury, elaborating the risk to the U.S. economy in economic growth, inflation and debtcrisis if debt continues to expand, which will also affects the international currency statusof the US dollar and slows the economic growth of the world.Chapter5-the influence factors of the U.S. government debt sustainability. Thischapter analyzes the factors that affect the U.S. government debt sustainability based onthe government budget constraint theory, including primary fiscal deficit, economicgrowth and international economic environment.Chapter6-the empirical analysis of the U.S. government debt sustainability. Thischapter mainly studies the U.S. government debt sustainability from two aspects. On onehand, this chapter builds the fiscal response function to empirically test the Americangovernment debt sustainability based on the theory of the government budget constraint;On the other hand, it forecasts the tendency of the United States government debt basedon the analysis of the influence factors.Chapter7-the adjustment and spillover effects for the sustainable development ofthe U.S. government debt. To ensure the sustainable development of the debt in the U.S.,the government must take measures to lower debt levels. The measures mainly includefiscal consolidation, financial repression and ensuring the strong currency status of USdollar, and these measures will also produce spillover effect on the world economy fromtrade, financial and commodity price linkages.Chapter8-the U.S. government debt with China. This chapter analyzes the U.S.government debt held by China and emphasizes the impact of these measures on China’seconomy, followed by putting forward related suggestions.Through research, the following conclusions can be drawn: Firstly, the U.S. government debt has expanded since the1980s, especially after thenew century, and has kept setting the record high since the global financial crisis. It lookslike that fiscal deficits and the decline in economic growth led to the rapid growth of debt.But it is the different concepts of the ruling parties and the different economic thoughtsthat they adhere to that caused the issue. It’s predicted that the U.S. government debt willcontinue to grow, which not only slows down the US economy, rises inflation and evenincreases the risk of debt crisis, but also deeply affects the international currency status ofthe US dollar, and slows down the world economic growth.Secondly, the dissertation uses empirical method to test the U.S. government debtsustainability based on the theory of the government budget constraint by using fiscalresponse function, which concludes that the U.S. government debt can sustain. Butconsidering the factors of unemployment, the adjustment of fiscal policy effect will becompromised. Therefore, the sustainability of the debt will be weakened. Furthermore,the forecast on the tendency of U.S. debt shows the future of the government debt is notoptimistic. This means that the US government not only needs to use fiscal policy tolower the debt levels, but also takes a variety of measures including financial repressionand depreciation of U.S. dollar.Finally, as the world’s largest economy, the U.S. fiscal and monetary policy willhave a significant spillover effects on the world economy. The U.S. fiscal consolidationand depreciation will reduce other countries’ export through trade channels, thusinfluence their national output. The United States financial repression can reduce othercountries’ foreign exchange reserve, result in capital frequent flow and challenge othercountries’ monetary policy, which will form a wide range of "financial repression". Thedollar depreciation will also make other countries face inflation through price channel,especially the emerging economies. Similarly, the measures that the U.S. governmentwill take to lower the debt levels will influence on China’s trade, foreign exchangereserve, capital flows and monetary policy. Therefore, the Chinese government shouldadjust the economic structure in time to reduce the loss brought by the U.S. governmentdebt.更多还原