【作者】 张术茂；

【导师】 林木西；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 国民经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 就业是民生之本。目前,我国面临的就业困境既有供求总量矛盾又有结构性问题,就业形势异常严峻。发达市场经济国家的历史实践表明,单纯依靠市场机制的力量来解决就业问题是不可能的。2008年1月《中华人民共和国就业促进法》的实施,标志着中国从法律层面确定了政府在扩大就业中的职责。2013年中国共产党十八届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》中明确提出,建立经济发展和扩大就业的联动机制,健全政府促进就业责任制度。这为未来的就业工作指明了方向。财政支出政策作为政府实施宏观经济调控最重要的手段之一,其就业效应到底如何,怎样才能充分发挥其在促进就业中的积极作用值得认真研究。论文主要内容如下：首先,在对国内外有关财政支出政策与就业关系的研究文献进行梳理的基础上,分析了财政支出政策与就业的相关理论。在综合考虑理论基础、支出规模和数据可得性基础上,选择财政投资支出、财政教育支出、财政科技支出、财政社会保障支出和财政行政管理费支出作为财政支出政策变量的代表,分析了它们就业效应的作用机理,并提出了分析方法。其次,对我国财政支出政策的就业效应进行实证分析。通过从促进就业的角度分析我国财政支出政策的演变,指出我国促进就业的财政支出政策经历了一个从被动适应到主动参与的过程。在实证分析方面,利用协整分析、动态响应分析和格兰杰因果分析,实证检验了财政支出总额对就业总量和三次产业就业量的影响以及财政支出结构对就业总量的影响。结果表明：(1)财政支出总额对长期就业总量效应不明显,但在短期有正向影响。国内生产总值对长期就业总量有较大正向影响。工资水平并不是影响就业总量变化的原因,但就业总量变化能引起工资水平的变化。(2)长期上财政支出总额明显抑制第一产业就业,促进第二产业就业,对第三产业就业有较弱的抑制作用。(3)财政支出结构主要项目中只有财政教育支出对长期就业总量有较大正向影响,财政投资支出、财政科技支出、财政行政管理费支出和财政社会保障支出对长期就业总量都有负向影响。财政支出主要项目按促进就业作用大小排序依次为：财政教育支出、财政社会保障支出、财政投资支出、财政科技支出和财政行政管理费支出。接下来,从就业增长与经济增长关系、就业结构变化和劳动力市场供求关系等方面对中国就业状况进行了总体判断,并从财政政策目标、财政投资领域、财政教育支出、财政科技支出、财政行政管理费支出和财政社会保障支出等方面分析了财政支出政策促进就业效果不明显的原因。最后,在原因分析基础上,借鉴主要国家利用财政支出政策促进就业的经验,提出了建立经济增长与促进就业的联动机制、财政支出政策侧重经济结构调整、调整和优化财政支出结构等对策与建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Employment is the paramount necessity of people’s livelihood. At present, China is facing with both contradiction in the total supply and demand and structural problems, indicating an abnormally severe employment situation. As shown in the historical practices of developed countries with market-oriented economy system, it is impossible to simply rely on the strength of market mechanism to solve the employment problem. The implementation of the Employment Promotion Law of the People’s Republic of China as of January2008has marked the determination of Chinese government’s role in the expansion of employment from a legislation perspective. In2013, the Third Plenary Session of the18th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party explicitly put forward in its Resolutions CPC Central Committee Concerning Some Majors Issues on the Round Deepening of Reformthat, a linkage mechanism of economic development and employment promotion shall be established to complete the liability system for the government to promote employment. It pointed out the direction for the future employment work. Fiscal expenditure policy is one of the most important approaches for the implementation of macroeconomic regulation and control by the government. How to give full play to its positive role in the promotion of employment is worth studying. In the paper, the major contents are as followed:First of all, based on a brief presentation of research literatures on the relationship between fiscal expenditure policies and employment at home and abroad, it analyzes the relevant theories on fiscal expenditure policies and employment. On basis of an overall consideration of theoretical basis, expenditure scale and data availability, the paper selects fiscal investment, and fiscal expenditures on education, science, social security and administration as the representatives of the structural variables of fiscal expenditure policy, and analyzes their function mechanism to employment, and puts forward the analysis methods.Secondly, it conducts an empirical analysis on the employment effects of China’s fiscal expenditure policies. Through an analysis on the development history of China’s fiscal expenditure policies, it points out that China’s fiscal expenditure policies for promotion employment have experienced a process from passive adaptation to active engagement. With respect to the empirical analysis, the paper utilizes co-integration analysis, dynamic response analysis and Granger causality analysis to conduct an empirical test to the effects of gross fiscal expenditures on the aggregate employment and the quantity of employment of tertiary industry and to the effects of fiscal expenditure structure on the aggregate employment. The results show that:(1) gross fiscal expenditures have an unobvious effect on aggregate employment in a long term, but a positive effect in a short term; GDP has great positive effect on the long-term aggregate employment; wage level is not the cause for the variation of aggregate employment, but the variation of aggregate employment can induce the variation of wage level.(2) In the long term, gross fiscal expenditures can obviously restrain the employment of the primary industry, but promote that of the secondary industry, and weakly restrain that of tertiary industry.(3) Among the major items of fiscal expenditure structure, only fiscal expenditure on education can have a great positive effect on the long-term aggregate employment, while fiscal expenditures on investment, science, and administration as well as social security all have negative effect on the long-term aggregate employment. According to the employment promotion effect degrees, the major items of fiscal expenditures can be ranked as:fiscal expenditure on education, fiscal expenditure on social security, fiscal expenditure on investment, fiscal expenditure on science, and fiscal expenditure on administration.Subsequently, the paper conducts an overall judgment of China’s employment situation from the perspectives of the relationship between employment growth and economic growth, and the relationship between variation of employment structure and labor market supply and demand, etc., and analyzes the reasons for the unobvious employment effect of fiscal expenditure polices from perspectives of fiscal policy objectives, fiscal investment fields, fiscal expenditure on education, fiscal expenditure on science, fiscal expenditure on administration and fiscal expenditure on social security, etc.Lastly, on basis of the reason analysis, the paper imitates the experience of major countries on utilizing fiscal expenditure policy to promote employment, and puts forward the linkage mechanism between economic growth and employment promotion, and the route selection for fiscal expenditure policies promoting employment which emphasize on economic structure adjustment, fiscal expenditure structure adjustment and optimization respectively.更多还原