【作者】 常远；

【导师】 杨玉生；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 经济思想史， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 美国次贷危机使得国际金融体系问题日益的突显，也使得以美元为中心的国际货币体系固有的缺陷日益暴露。世界各国深刻的意识到多元化的国际货币体系将会降低国际金融危机对实体经济的冲击程度，世界各国开始逐步的寻找其他国际货币或者区域货币，以降低美元贬值给本国带来的损失。为了应对次贷危机对美国实体经济的冲击，美国实行了四轮的QE（量化宽松的货币政策）。这些政策的推行，虽在一定的程度上使美国的经济有所复苏，但加剧了美元的贬值和通货膨胀，同时美国作为国际大国并未考虑到其货币政策的推行将对别国经济造成的影响。因此，这些政策势必会影响到美元的国际主导货币地位，也会影响到美国政府在国际上的地位和信誉。与此同时，中国经济的市场化和全球化进程不断的加深，使得中国的经济得到了飞速发展，其国际影响力和国际竞争力不断的提升，为人民币走向国际化奠定了坚实的经济和信誉基础。在应对金融危机时，中国以大国的姿态保持人民币不贬值，力求人民币币值稳定，在很大的程度上提高人民币的国际信誉度。因此，人民币逐渐在贸易结算和金融投资中作为交易货币在国际上使用，加快了人民币国际化进程。本文研究的主要内容分为七章：第一章为导论，主要包括：选题背景和意义、国际货币的理论界定、国内外文献综述、研究思路与方法、结构安排和主要内容、创新点与不足。第二章为货币国际化思想发展史，主要从货币国际化思想的角度对货币国际化思想的发展进行理论梳理。第三章为人民币国际化的现状分析，从跨境贸易结算、人民币金融交易、货币互换协议等方面对人民币当前的现状进行分析。第四章为人民币国际化支撑因素分析，从国力、金融、货币国际循环的角度分析。第五章为人民币国际化与宏观经济关系的实证分析，主要从人民币汇率、资本账户开放度、货币政策、铸币税收益、政策可信度和银行业等方面进行理论研究和实证检验。第六章为人民币国际化的风险评估与控制，主要是对人民币国际化可能面临的风险进行理论论述和实证检验，进而提出一些防范风险的措施。第七章为人民币国际化的政策建议，主要从经济环境、政策措施和国际合作三个方面进行阐述。本文遵循“提出问题—分析问题—解决问题”的逻辑，对人民币国际化问题进行理论研究和实证分析。本文采用宏微观经济理论和货币理论，对人民币国际化给予理论论证，同时利用时间序列的分析方法对人民币国际化与中国宏观经济的关系进行实证研究，以及对其面临的风险进行评估和防范。本文研究的主要结论为：首先，中国经济实力的增强和国际地位的提高，以及人民币币值稳定和良好的国际信誉，为人民币走向国际化奠定了坚实的经济基础和信誉基础；其次，人民币国际化与宏观经济的关系可知，汇率的稳定性、政策的可信度、资本账户的开放度、货币政策的有效性等均会对人民币国际化进程产生影响，因此为推动人民币国际化就必须正确的处理好人民币国际化与宏观经济的关系；最后，人民币国际化必将使中国面临着各种金融风险，因此在人民币国际化过程中，中国要有效的评估风险，进而做好风险的防范，降低对中国经济和金融市场以及人民币国际化的影响。总之，为加快人民币国际化进程，首先，要有坚实的经济基础和良好的外部环境；其次，要保持汇率的稳定，保持人民币币值的稳定和国际地位，逐步的实现资本账户开放和人民币可自由兑换，加大人民币在贸易结算、金融投资、甚至外汇储备当中的比例，完善中国金融体制、逐渐的实现利率市场等；最后，在获得人民币国际化收益的同时加强对人民币国际化的风险评估和防范，降低人民币国际化的成本，使其收益最大化。更多还原

【Abstract】 The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has made the problems ofinternational financial system increasingly evident and exposed the inherent defects ofUSD-based international monetary system. The world has been full aware that thediversified international monetary system can cushion the impacts of internationalfinancial crisis upon the real economy, which urges countries to seek other internationalcurrency or even regional currency so as to mitigate potential loss from depreciation ofUS dollar.In response to the impact of financial crisis on the real economy, the United Statescarried out two rounds of quantitative easing monetary policy. Although theimplementation of these policies revived America economy to a certain extent, itaggravated the devaluation of US dollar and inflation. Moreover, the United States, as asuperpower, didn’t take into account of possible impacts upon other countries as a resultof its monetary policies. In this regard, these policies will inevitably undermine USdollar’s status as leading international currency as well as the status and prestige of theUnited States in the international community. In the meantime, more market-orientedeconomy and deepened globalization have provided China with rapid economic growthcombined with improved international influence and international competitiveness,which has laid a solid economic foundation for RMB to become an internationalizedcurrency. Confronted with the financial crisis, China, positioning itself as a power,protected RMB from depreciation and strived to maintain RMB currency value, whichimprove the international reputation of RMB to a large extent. In this way, RMB hasbeen applied as a transaction currency in trade settlement and financial investment in theworld. Also, the Chinese government has made great efforts to accelerate theinternationalization of RMB.This paper contains seven chapters. Chapter1is the introduction, including researchbackground and significance, international currency theoretical definition, literaturereview of domestic and foreign studies, research ideas and methods, paper organization,main content, innovations and deficiencies. Chapter2focuses on the development of, including a theoretical summary of currency internationalization idea evolution. Chapter3analyzes RMB internationalization and supporting factors in the international monetarysystem. Chapter4makes an empirical analysis on RMB internationalization and China’smacro economy from eight perspectives of exchange rate, capital account openness,financial market, monetary policy, seigniorage revenue, policy credibility, internationalbalance of payment as well as banking business. Chapter5discusses risk assessment andcontrol of RMB internationalization, including theoretical demonstration and empiricalverification of potential risks of RMB internationalization, so as to put forward riskprevention measures. Chapter6is strategic choice for RMB internationalization from theviewpoint of economic environment, policies and measures as well as internationalcooperation. Chapter7concludes the paper.This paper follows “problem-analysis-solution” pattern and carries out theoreticalresearch and empirical analysis on problems of RMB internationalization. Based onmacro and micro economic theories and monetary theories, this paper makes theoreticalarguments on RMB internationalization, together with empirical research on therelationship between RMB internationalization and macro economy in China based ontime series analysis as well as risk assessment and prevention.This paper has reached the following conclusions. First, the enhanced economicstrength and international status, stable RMB value and favorable international prestigehave laid the economic and reputation basis for RMB internationalization. Second, givento the relationship between RMB internationalization and macro economy, exchange ratestability, policy credibility, capital account openness and the effectiveness of monetarypolicy will all influence RMB internationalization progress. Therefore, the promotion ofRMB internationalization must give priority to correct handing of the relationshipbetween RMB internationalization and macro economy. Finally,RMB internationalizationwill expose China to various financial risks. For this reason, in the process of RMBinternationalization, China is supposed to make effective risk assessment and preventionto cushion the impacts on China’s real economy and financial market.All in all, in order to accelerate the internationalization of RMB, there shall be asolid economic foundation and agreeable external environment in the first place.Moreover, it is necessary to keep exchange rate stable, maintain RMB value and international status, gradually achieve capital account opening and RMB freedom andexchange, increase the RMB proportion in trade settlement, financial investment andforeign exchange reserves, improve domestic financial and realize market-orientedinterest rate. Last but not the least, with profits from RMB internationalization, it is alsoimportant to strengthen risk assessment and prevention of RMB internationalization,reduce the cost of RMB internationalization as well as maximize the profits.更多还原