【作者】 赵枫；

【导师】 权锡鉴；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2013， 博士

【副题名】以山东省为例

【摘要】 我国加入世界贸易组织后，由于国内市场本身的缺陷，农业面临着激烈的国际市场竞争。在较长的一段时间里，中国的农业可能会经济效益较低，而生产经营风险较大。对处于弱质产业地位的我国农业来说,这是一个十分严峻的考验。农业是国民经济的基础，也是特殊的弱质产业，面对自然、市场、技术、政策等多种风险，客观上要求加强风险管理。农业保险将会在一定程度上对我国农业的发展起到保障作用。在国际上,农业保险制度已经成为非价格农业保护的重要工具之一，世界上很多国家都在积极试验、推行该项政策。本文试图从微观层面对我国花生种植保险供给意愿和需求意愿两方面进行研究，以期对供求主体建立有效的合作模式，通过保险手段分散和转移农业风险，促进我国农业经济的发展。针对上述问题，本文的研究工作和主要贡献集中在以下几个方面：第一，在山东省花生种植保险需求意愿的测度研究方面，采用了调查问卷的形式，提取了花生种植保险需求意愿的影响因素，运用Logistic模型对需求意愿进行了实证分析。研究发现，户主年龄、受教育情况和人均耕地对花生种植保险需求意愿基本没有影响；年均自然灾害损失、家中是否有大学生、是否听说过农业保险、是否购买过商业保险这四个因素对需求意愿有正向影响；户主务农年限、劳动力占比、家庭面临重要问题数量和家庭年均收入这四个因素对需求意愿有负面影响。第二，对花生种植保险供给意愿进行了定性分析。结果表明，保险公司经营农业保险意愿是影响农业保险有效供给水平的关键因素，但是我国在提高保险供给方面也存在较大问题，包括我国农业保险的再保险机制不健全、基层保险工作人员缺乏和较低的定损理赔技术和风险区域划分技术等，在一定程度上阻碍了保险公司的供给意愿。第三、运用演化博弈理论分别对花生种植保险的需求主体和供给主体做出分析。研究发现，无论是花生种植保险的需求还是花生种植保险的供给，政府都在其中起到重要作用，因此确定了“农户—政府—保险公司三方联动关系”，以合理发挥政府在花生种植保险发展中的作用，促进花生种植保险的全面推广。然后对农业保险合作模式进行了效用分析，发现政府主导下商业性保险公司经营模式是比较有效的，承保主体应当由政府与商业性保险公司共同担当。最后对合作模式的实施构建了比较完备的运行机制。第四、从完善相关法规、完善花生种植业信息反馈体系、培育新型花生种植业投保主体、建立花生种植业风险防范预警机制四个方面对花生种植保险有效合作模式的支撑条件进行了分析。本文可能的创新之处主要体现在以下两点：（1）目前学者对国内农业保险的研究多以水稻保险、棉花保险等种植业保险和能繁母猪保险等养殖业保险作为主要研究对象。本文选择以花生种植保险作为研究对象，符合山东实情，丰富了农业保险的研究内容。（2）本文通过实证分析研究花生种植保险的供求意愿及其影响因素，通过博弈分析验证花生种植保险供求行为的有效性，并使用效用分析识别花生种植保险的有效合作模式，多维度、多层次地对花生种植保险推行方式进行研究，为设计花生种植保险有效合作模式提供了理论依据和政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 After joining the WTO, Chinese agriculture is facing fierce internationalcompetition because of defects in the domestic market itself. Chinese agriculture maybe low economic efficiency in a long period, while the production and operation are athigh risk. Considering its weak position, Chinese agricultural industry is facing severechallenges.As the foundation of national economy, agriculture is a special weak industry,which is facing the risks from nature, market, technology, policy and so on. Thus, itsrisk management should be strengthened. Agricultural insurance will play animportant role in safeguarding the development of agriculture. Internationally, theagricultural insurance system has become an important non-price agriculturalprotection tool, and many countries in the world are actively doing experiments andimplementing this policy. This article manages to study the supply and demand wishesin peanut planting insurance in our country from the perspective of microcosmic, sothat effective cooperation mode for the two sides can be established, and theagricultural risks can be spread and transferred to boost the development of China’sagricultural economy.In response to these problems, this article’s main contribution and research workare focusing on the following aspects:Firstly, in the aspect of measuring research on the demand wishes of peanutplanting insurance in Shandong Province, the method of questionnaire survey is usedto extract the factors affecting demand wishes. And Logistic Model is used to make anempirical analysis for the demand wishes. Studies show that age, education and theper capita arable land have little impact on demand wishes. The four factors-annuallosses from natural disasters, a university student at home or not, ever heardagricultural insurance or not, whether purchased the commercial insurance, havepositive impact on demand wishes. While the other four factors-farming life, laborratio, important issues in family and average annual income, have negative impact ondemand wishes.Secondly, qualitative analysis on the supply of peanut planting insurance wishes ismade. The result shows that insurance companies are the key factors affectingagricultural insurance supply in our country. And problems are also existed in thesuppliers, including the defect of reinsurance mechanism, lacking of primaryinsurance staff and inadequate loss assessing and claim technology and risk zoningtechniques in Chinese agricultural insurance. These problems are hindering theinsurance company’s supply wishes to some extent.Thirdly, Evolutionary Game Theory is used to analyze the demander and the supplier in peanut planting insurance. The result shows that the government plays animportant role in both demand and supply in peanut planting insurance. Finally,the correlation in farmers, government, and insurance companies is determined toexert the government’s influence in the development of peanut planting insurance. Itis conducive to the comprehensive promotion of peanut planting insurance. The utilityanalysis of agricultural insurance cooperation mode proves that the business modewhich is led by the government and operated by commercial insurance companies ismore effective. The risks are jointly shared by the government and commercialinsurance companies. Finally, a relatively complete operating mechanism inimplementation of the cooperation mode is built.Fourthly, the supporting conditions of the effective cooperation mode of peanutplanting insurance are analyzed from the four aspects-improving relevant laws andregulations, improving the information feedback system, cultivating new policyholders and establishing the risk prevention and alert system of peanut planting.The innovation of this article is mainly reflected in the following two points:(1) The current domestic academic researches in agricultural insurance are mostlyfocusing on crop insurance such as rice and cotton, and livestock insurance such assow. This article aims on peanut planting insurance as the research object, which is inaccordance with the actual situation in Shandong Province and can enrich theresearch of agricultural insurance.(2) This article tries to use the empirical analysis to research on the factors ofsupply wishes and demand wishes, and the influencing factors. The article also tries touse the game analysis to verify the effectiveness of the supply and demand behaviorin peanut planting insurance. Meanwhile, the article tries to use the utility analysis torecognize the effective cooperation mode of peanut planting insurance, and researchon implementation methods from multi-dimension and multi-level. At last, this articleprovides theoretical basis and policy recommendations for designing effectivecooperation mode of peanut planting insurance.更多还原