【作者】 冯献；

【导师】 李宁辉；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 从党的十七届五中全会提出“在工业化、城镇化深入发展中同步推进农业现代化”到十八大提出“促进工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化同步发展”，党中央对现代化的认识不断深入。尤其伴随信息技术的发展，信息化的融合将进一步提升现代化发展水平，“三化”的协调发展将有利于促进信息要素的流动，成为推进“四化同步”建设的基础和重要内容。目前我国正处于“三化”协调向“四化”同步建设转变的关键时期，在该转变深入推进的特殊历史阶段，各地的“三化”同步建设过程仍然存在着不协调、不平衡的问题。针对不同类型地区的“三化”协调水平开展综合评价与空间差异的研究，是一项具有前沿意义和现实必要性的课题。论文首先从理论层面总结归纳了“三化”协调发展的科学内涵和实现机制，根据我国“三化”的实践过程对“三化”协调发展阶段进行了划分，然后结合长江流域地区“三化”发展现状、水平和趋势分析了“三化”不协调发展的体现。其次构建了包含19个具体指标的评价体系，通过采用功效系数与主成分分析相结合的方法，测算出2000-2012年的11省市和2009-2011年沿江40个城市的“三化”协调发展水平。得出结论：2000-2012年间，各省市、各流域段的“三化”协调发展水平呈现上升趋势，并呈东高西低阶梯状分布，发展水平较高的地区多集中于长三角地区和部分省会城市，而生态较为脆弱的地区（如昭通、自贡、泸州、宜宾等）以及部分粮食主产区（如滁州、岳阳、荆州、黄冈等）的“三化”水平仍处于较低水平；采用几何平均与算术平均调整法，发现区域协调度存在差异，江浙沪处于协调状态，而云南则为极度失调，其他地区处于轻微失调状态，区域间中游段不平衡指数最低，上游最高，但差距呈缩小趋势。为深化区域研究，本文对“三化”的空间差异及关联进行了探索分析。通过ESDA法对省域“三化”协调发展水平进行了空间关联性分析，研究结论表明，2000-2012年间，“三化”的空间聚集由以单一的上海为高水平聚集点向中上游转移，到2012年形成了以江浙沪为主的高水平聚集区，实现了以点带面的空间扩散；进一步地通过构建空间滞后模型，测算了区域经济增长对“三化”发展的空间效应，得出：（1）区域经济增长对“三化”协调发展水平总的影响效应由忽略空间因素的0.4022增长到考虑空间溢出效应的0.4434；（2）区域经济增长的空间溢出对“三化”发展大约贡献了9%。同时，区域的“三化”增长10%，则可对其相邻地区的“三化”增长3.9774%。基于上述研究，本文探讨了长江流域不同主体功能区“三化”协调推进的路径选择，总结归纳出城市化区的全域“三化”同步推进模式、农产品主产区的产业联动型的“三化”协调推进模式以及生态功能区的生态“三化”协调推进三种模式、路径。最后结合前述内容，从加快转变农业发展方式、促进产业结构优化升级、推进中小城镇发展等方面提出相关对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Seen from the concept of in the industrialization and urbanization in-depth development toproceed with the modernization of agriculture (hereinafter―three modernizations‖) that proposedat the fifth plenary session of the17th CPC Central Committee and the scientific connotation ofpromoting harmonized development of industrialization, IT application, urbanization andagricultural modernization, both of them reflected the constantly in-depth understanding ofmodernization. Especially, with the development of information technology, informatizationintegration is enhancing the modernization level. Coordinated development of―threemodernizations‖is good for the unrestricted flow of information resources, and it becomes thebasis and important content in the promoting harmonized development of―four modernizations‖.At present, China is in a critical transforming period from―three modernizations‖to―fourmodernizations‖, Different region development route in three modernizations is uneven. How tocarry out research on the comprehensive evaluation of―three modernizations‖coordinatedevelopment and its spatial differences under the background of―four modernizations‖requirements is an issue worthy of further study.The industrialization theory, urbanization theory and modern agriculture theory are the basictheory in this paper. Used systems engineering theory, this paper firstly analyzed the scientificconnotation and realization mechanism. And then it summarized the status of coordinateddevelopment of―three modernizations‖. After it, this paper found out the reflection ofasynchronous―three modernizations‖in Yangtze River Basin.Secondly, a comprehensive evaluation system including19indexes for―threemodernizations‖is built to measure the comprehensive development level of―threemodernizations‖in Yangtze River Basin from2000to2012, and in40cities alongside YangtzeRiver from2009to2011under the principle component analysis and efficacy coefficient. Afterthen, Geometric mean and arithmetic average adjustment method was used to calculate theregional unbalanced index of―three modernizations‖. The main findings from the evaluationsystem were:-In the period of2000to2012, the―three modernizations‖comprehensive level in eachregion and reaches in Yangtze River Basin was on the rise.-Regional―three modernizations‖comprehensive level West East high low with steppeddistribution characteristics. Higher coordination degree was aggregated in Yangtze River Deltaregion and parts of provincial capital, especially Shanghai, Suzhou, Changzhou, Wuxi andNanjing were rank in top five from2009to2011. While the ecological fragile region, likesZhaotong, Zigong, Luzhou, Yibin, etc. and the major grain producing region, likes Chuzhou,Yueyang, Jinzhou, Huanggang, etc. with low degrees.-Disequilibrium of development level among Upper Yangtze, Middle Yangtze and LowerYangtze appeared clearly. In2012, Shanghai was in the high-class coordination state, Jiangsu andZhejiang province were in middle-class coordination state, while Yunnan Province was in the extreme imbalance state. Other provinces presented some minor maladjustment.-Regional unbalanced degree existed visible difference. The unbalanced degree in MiddleYangtze proper was the lowest while the upper Yangtze River was the highest. However, the gapsamong the three reaches tend to be narrowed.Thirdly, ESDA and SLM model were used to analyze the spatial differences and spatialcorrelation of―three modernizations‖comprehensive development level. The main findings fromthe model were:-―three modernizations‖spatial cluster was shift from single Shanghai to middle and lowerYangtze River in the period of2000to2012, while in2012, the H-H spatial cluster fell on Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai, the―three modernizations‖spatial diffusion mode realized thetransformation from point to surface.-Using SLM model for―three modernizations‖and per capita GDP, this paper calculated theregional economic growth spillover effect. The total influential effect of regional economic growthto―three modernizations‖was increased from0.4022to0.4434while in consideration the spatialspillover effect. Meanwhile, regional economic growth spatial spillover contributed9%to theregional―three modernizations‖. In addition, while one region―three modernizations‖comprehensive level improve10%, its adjoining region―three modernizations‖comprehensivelevel can rise up3.9774%.Fourthly, how the different main functional area choose the coordinate development routes,combining with the different main functional area planning in Yangtze River Basin, three patternsin coordinate development of―three modernizations‖were summarized in this paper. That wasmacrocosm―three Modernizations‖synchronically promoting mode in development zone,industry linkage mode of coordinately promoting―three Modernizations‖in agricultural productsproducing zone, and coordinately promoting development of ecological―three Modernizations‖inecological fragile zone.Finally, policy suggestions, based on the research conclusions, are given in terms ofaccelerating transformation of the farming practice, upgrading effect of industry structure,promoting the development of small towns, and adhering to the principle of industrialconvergence and city integration in the practicing of―three modernizations‖coordinatedevelopment in different main functional area.更多还原