【作者】 杨志明；

【导师】 魏建； 洪永淼；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 金融学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 2005年10月,党的十六届五中全会明确提出了“建设资源节约型,环境友好型社会”,并首次把建设两型社会确定为国民经济与社会发展中长期规划的一项战略任务。此后,国家出台了一系列有关节能减排的政策法规,并取得了一定成效。2012年11月,胡锦涛同志在十八大报告中又提出,大力推进“生态文明建设”,并将其放在突出位置,显示出了国家对于节约资源和改善环境的决心和信心。长久以来,中国保持着接近9%的高速增长奇迹。然而,在高速增长背后,资源浪费和能源枯竭,环境污染规模逐渐扩大和程度不断加深,种种迹象正威胁着中国经济增长的持续性。在国内,随着经济发展的需要,对资源过度开采,以环境代价发展,尤其是近期所形成的雾霾空气污染受到了众多学者等各界人十的关注。据中国环境保护部统计(2013),我国城市空气质量仍属重度污染或严重污染状态,北京等多个城市空气质量维持在五级水平以上。在国际,据世界银行(1996)估计,每年中国因污染而导致的经济损失约为540亿美元,约占当年国内生产总值的8%。现在,中国的空气污染等问题己成为当前世界最为严重的国家之一,中国已跻身成为世界最大的能源消耗者和污染排放者(Bolt et al.,2000)这一切现象都为我们节能减排和关注城市经济可持续增长敲响警钟。鲜有学者在实证层面关注中国城市经济增长质量问题。有鉴.于此,本文主要关注节能减排约束视角下的中国城市经济增长,通过构建城市级别的数据库,将资源和环境等要素纳入到三态环境下的经济增长分析框架,运用实证的方法着重针对三态环境(气液固)视角的节能减排约束下的中国城市经济增长现象予以描述,整体分析、分类讨论,并探究现象产生原因。思路逻辑起点：全国和省域范围的经济增长核算己司空见惯,鲜有研究集中就中国城市经济增长展开讨论。全文主旨意在讨论节能减排约束下的中国城市增长情况,按照“特征描述-分类讨论-整体分析-原因分析”的技术路线来行文。通过中国城市增长绩效测算构建文章框架基础,以描述经济增长质量。从分类考察中国110个重点城市市场效率和环境效率的发展“好坏参半”的现状,经济增长、科技进步和外商投资等是城市向“两型社会”转型重要的影响因素。同时,从整体视角判断中国城市环境与经济增长之间的关系,指出现有城市发展调整的方向。经济增长与环境之间矛盾的解决有赖于高效、合理的环境投资,环境投资绩效的考核成为问题关键。承接前文分析现象产生的根源,即污染物排放分布不尽平衡,排放与经济增长不尽协调,排放与治理投资不尽合理,据此提出政策建议。方法逻辑起点：以测算节能减排约束下的中国城市增长绩效为出发点,估算出市场效率和综合效率(或绿色效率和环境约束下的效率)以及其对应全要素生产率。分别利用效率和生产率延伸出两条思路,一条是基于效率值构建“市场效率-综合效率分布图”,获得中国110个重点城市发展的分布情况,运用二元选择模型讨论影响城市转型的因素。另一条是应用添加环境生产率的估算方程,以减少或解决经济增长与环境污染可能存在内生性问题,来阐述经济增长与环境污染二者关系。最后,通过搭建环境污染及其与经济增长和环境投资的指标,来实现城市现象产生的原因分析。全文的基本结构如下：一、文献综述。按照理论依据和实证分析两方面视角,对关丁‘富含能源和环境等因素的经济增长相关文献研究进行梳理和总结。发现已有学者多从两个方面探讨节能减排和经济增关系：(1)符合客观事实的全要素生产率的测算；(2)环境污染与经济增长关系描述,即环境库兹涅茨曲线(和资源诅咒假说)；二、中国城市经济增长与资源环境：基于生产力的实证分析。以文献综述为背景,承接理论研究的分析思路,首先考察节能减排约束下的中国城市经济增长绩效,利用2001-2010年间中国110个重点城市的工业数据,通过构建气体、液体和固体三种环境的数据库,逐步添加资源、环境污染产出和投入等变量,运用基于松弛的序列方向性距离函数测算城市层面的效率和相对应的全要素生产力情况,以Luenberger生产力指数为基础获得较贴近现实情况的环境生产率,描述中国城市工业增长现状。研究发现：(1)2001-2010年中国110个重点城市平均效率值是0.705；(2)平均生产力变动是0.0910,其按照效率变动和技术变动分解后分别为0.0091和0.0819；(3)不考虑能源消耗会低估真实的效率和生产率；不考虑污染排放或未能正确处理污染排放会高估真实的效率和生产率；未添加污染治理投资的投入产出模型会低估真实效率和生产率；(4)中国城市减排工作的压力要远大于节能工作的压力；(5)技术进步是生产力提高的重要因素,能源和环境管理效率提升并未显露。三、中国城市发展模式：基于市场效率和综合效率视角。利用上述基于松弛的序列方向性距离函数测算的仅含有市场因素的效率值(即市场效率),以及综合反映了市场和环境因素的效率值(即综合效率),两组效率值高低构建四种城市发展模式。其中,高市场效率和高综合效率组表征多重因素相对协调发展,视为“两型社会”组。结果显示出中国110个重点城市中有48个城市散落在“低市场效率和低综合效率组”,且集中分布在中、西部两地；而有39个城市位于“高市场效率和高综合效率组”,且多数处于东部地区。为了进一步考查影响城市转型的因素,我们采用二元选择模型来进行实证分析,经济发展、科技进步、对外开放度均促进了中国城市转型,即向着市场效率和综合效率双高水平精进；表征资源丰裕程度的变量阻碍了城市发展转型；投资渠道有效、投资管理能力不足、粗放式投资则难以成为城市转型发展动力。四、“环境库兹涅茨”曲线：添加生产力的中国城市环境与经济增长。环境和经济增长都与环境效率有着密切的关系,“环境库兹涅茨”曲线探讨或存在内生性问题。运用上述测算的环境生产率,探讨考虑到环境生产率后的“环境库兹涅茨”曲线,以减少可能存在的影响二者关系的内生性。经验证无论是气体环境、还是液体和固体环境,都一致呈现出N型的“环境库兹涅茨”曲线,即随着经济的增长污染水平线上升、后下降再转而上升。同时,判断出中国大部分城市处于发展第一阶段,即随经济增长污染物上升阶段。资源是环境的组成部分,鉴于此我们还探讨了“资源诅咒”,该现象普遍存在,并且通过效率传导的。五、中国城市节能减排投资效果分析。通过指标构建发现中国城市发展存在三个“不”的问题：即污染排放分配不平衡、污染物排放与经济增长不公平、污染物排放与污染治理投资不合理。污染物排放及其投资的差异性是构成环境与经济发展关系的不统一的重要原因。通过该章节的分析来探究城市发展形成的路径,以针对不同类型区域提出有针对性政策建议。本文以实证为主要方法研究中国城市经济增长问题,可能的贡献在于：第一,虽然已有文献研究环境或资源与经济增长之间的关系,但鲜有文献运用城市数据加以验证。构建了城市级别经济增长研究框架,强调气体、液体和固体三个环境状态下的环境与经济增长的关系,多环境探讨和印证是本文一点特色；第二,运用方向距离函数测算效率和相应全要素生产率,定义Luenberger生产力指数。与环境约束下的环境生产率不同,这里依据Luenberger生产力指数可加性特征采取综合生产率与市场生产率差值法度量环境生产率,以更准确地刻画环境技术和环境管理的变动；第三,基于市场效率和综合效率提出“中国城市发展模式”框架,并描述和梳理了影响中国城市发展转型的因素；第四,在“环境库兹涅茨”曲线假说验证过程中,添加环境生产率指标可能克服了或存在于经济增长与环境之间的内生性问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Fifth Plenary Session of the16th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee clearly stated the goal of "building a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society", and for the first time put it as a strategic task in the long-term planning of the economic and social development. Since then, the government has adopted a series of policies and regulations relating to energy conservation and emission reduction, and has achieved some success. In November2012, then President Hu Jintao proposed in his report in the18th CPC National Congress, vigorously promoting the "ecological civilization." highlighted it in a prominent position, showing the country’s determination and confidence. to conserve resources and improve the environment.Over the years, China maintained a rapid growth nearing9%. However, growing resources waste, energy depletion and environmental pollution surged with the rapid growth, threatening the sustainability of China’s economic growth. At home, resources overexploitation and increasing environmental costs, particularly worsening smog have recently attracted attention of many scholars and other walks of life. According to statistics released in2013from China’s Ministry of Environmental Protection, China’s urban air quality is still heavily polluted or seriously polluted, with several cities such as Beijing above level of five or higher. According to the World Bank’s estimate in1996, China suffered approximately$54billion annual economic losses due to pollution, accounting for about8percent of GDP that year. Now, China m has become one of the world’s most apolluted countries and one of the world’s largest energy consumers and pollution emitters (Bolt et al.,2000). The situation should sound the alarm for our energy conservation and sustainable urban economic growth.Few scholars took an empirical study of quality of China’s urban economic growth. Therefore, this article constructed city-level databases, including resource and environmental elements into the framework of the tri-state analysis of economic growth environment, and use empirical methods to focus on economic growth under energy conservation constraint of the tri-state environment (gas-liquid-solid) with overall analysis, classification discussion and causes-seeking of the phenomenon.Research logic:It is common to study economic growth on the national and provincial level, but few studies have focused on urban economic growth in China. This paper mainly discusses Chinese urban growth under energy saving and emission reduction, according to the technical route of "characterization-category discussion-overall analysis". This paper studies the market efficiency and environmental efficiency of110major cities in China as economic growth, technological progress and foreign investment are important factors of a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society. Meanwhile, judging from the overall perspective, this paper analyses the relationship between China’s urban environment and economic growth, pointing out the way for future urban development. Contradiction between economic growth and environmental protection should be solved by efficient, rational environmental investments, and the environmental assessment of investment performance is a key issue. Then this paper offers policy recommendations to deal with the uneven distribution of pollutant emissions, imbalance of emissions and economic growth and investment.Methodology:this paper starts research measurement the performance of urban growth in China under the constraint of energy conservation to estimate the market efficiency and overall efficiency (or green efficiency and efficiency under environmental constraints) and its corresponding TFP. This paper extends two approaches based on use efficiency and productivity, one of which is based on the efficiency values to map "market efficiency-the overall efficiency of distribution" to get the development distribution of China’s110major cities, using a binary choice model to discuss the factors affecting urban transformation. Another application is to add equations to estimate the productivity of the environment, to reduce or resolve endogenous economic growth and environmental pollution problems and illustrate both economic growth and environmental pollution relationship. Finally, by building environmental pollution and its indicators with economic growth and investment environment, this paper gives the reasons for the phenomenon.The structure of the paper is organized as follows:1The literature review is given in chapter2. From the perspective of theoretical and the empirical analysis, this paper sorts and summarizes the literatures about the economic growth related with energy and environment. This paper shows two aspects associated with the relationship between economic growth and the environment:1) The calculation of the total factor productivity (TFP);2) the relationship between environment pollution and economic growth, which can also be named as environmental Kuznets curve or the resource hypothesis.2The empirical analysis of the relationship between the economic growth and the environment of the city is given based on the productivity. In the context of the literature review and the theoretical analysis, this paper analyzes the performance of the economic growth of the city under the constraints of the limited energy-use in China. Based on the industrial data of110major cities from2001to2011. this paper constructs the database of the environment index including the gas, liquids, and solids and then estimates the environment efficiency of the city and the total factor productivity by the method of slacaks-based sequential directional distance function. From this chapter, we obtain the Luenberger productivity index to describe the industry performance of the major cities, which is close to the reality environmental productivity situation.From this paper, we can conclude that:1) The average efficiency of the110major cities from2001to2011is0.705;2) the change of the average productive efficiency is0.0910, which can be de decomposed to efficiency change and technology change. The values of the two parts are0.0091and0.0819. respectively.3) This paper neglects that the effect of the energy consumption will underestimate the true efficiency and productivity; this paper also neglects that the pollution will overestimate the true efficiency and productivity; the input-output model without pollution control inputs will underestimate the true efficiency and productivity.4) In the major cities of China, reducing the emission of the pollution is more important than energy-saving.5) Technology is an important factor to improve the productivity, while the effect of energy and environment control is not clear.Third. China’s urban development model:based on market efficiency and overall efficiency perspective. With the based sequential directional distance function above this chapter estimates the efficiency value containing only market factors (ie, market efficiency), as well as comprehensively reflects the efficiency value (ie, the overall efficiency) of the market and environmental factors, using two sets of the level of efficiency values to build four urban development patterns. Among them, the high market efficiency and high overall efficiency characterize multiple factors relatively harmonious development, as a "two-oriented society" group. The results show that China has48cities out of110major cities scattered in the "low market efficiency and low overall efficiency group", and concentrated in the middle and western region; while there are39cities in the "high market efficiency and high overall efficiency group", and most are in the eastern region.To further examine the factors affecting urban transformation, we use a binary choice model to make empirical analysis, economic development, scientific and technological progress, the degree of openness are all promoting the urban transformation, namely toward double high level of market efficiency and overall efficiency; the variable characterizing resources abundance levels hinders urban development and transformation; effective investment channels, lack of investment management capabilities, extensive investment are difficult to become a driving force for development of urban transformation.Fourth, the "Environmental Kuznets" Curve:adding productivity to China’s urban environment and economic growth. Environmental and economic growth are closely related with environmental efficiency,"Environmental Kuznets" Curve discusses or exists endogenous problems. Using the above estimates of environmental productivity index, the chapter explores the "Environmental Kuznets"’Curve after taking into account environmental productivity in order to reduce the possible impact of endogenous relationship between the two. It is proven that no matter gas environment, and solid or liquid environments are consistently showing N shaped "Environmental Kuznets" Curve, which means as the economy grows, pollution level rises, and then decline to rise again. Meanwhile, it is determined that most Chinese cities are in the first phase of development, namely with economic growth rising pollutants rise phase. Resources are an integral part of the environment, in view of this, we also discussed the "Resource Curse", which is widespread and conducting through efficiency.Fifth, the effect analysis of China’s urban investment in energy saving and emission reduction. Indicators constructed found that China’s urban development exit three questions:namely pollution emission allocation imbalances, pollutant emissions and economic growth unfair, pollutant emissions and pollution control investment unreasonable. The difference between pollutant emissions and investment constitutes an important reason for the non-uniform relationship between the environment and economic development. By analyzing, this chapter explores the path of urban development and formation in order to make targeted policy recommendations for the different types of areas.Based on the empirical research as the main method China city economic growth,the possible contribution lies in:first, although the relationship between the literature research environment or resources and economic growth, but there is little literature using city data to validate. In this paper,we construct the city level economic growth framework, the emphasis on the relationship between environment and economic growth in three environmental conditions inclding gas, liquid and solid.multienvironmental research and confirm is the feature of this paper.Second, using the directional distance function to measure the efficiency and total factor productivity, the definition of Luenberger productivity index. Differ with the restraint of environment and environmental productivity, here on the basis of Luenberger productivity index additivity feature,we measure environmental productivity by the method of comprehensive productivity and market productivity difference. Intend to describe the change of environmental technology and environmental management accurately.Third, based on the market efficiency and comprehensive efficiency,we claimed "China citydevelopment mode" framework, and describe and analyze factors affecting Chinese city development transformation;Fourth, in the "environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis verification process,"endogeneity problem which exists between economic growth and environment can be overcomed by adding environmental productivity index.更多还原