【作者】 张志薇；

【导师】 王式功；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 气象学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 政府间气候变化委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)近四次公布的评估报告中都多次指出气候变化直接或间接地影响人类健康。一方面,极端天气气候事件发生频率增加,气象灾害的频繁发生和气候异常变化影响的加剧,助长了某些疾病的流行和蔓延；另一方面,一些气象因素的异常变化,导致某些天气敏感性疾病患者病情加重或复发,使某些疾病发病率和死亡率增加、发病地域范围扩大,从而威胁人类的生存和发展。因此,为了有效地适应全球气候变化,减少其对人类自身健康的负面效应和突发疾病事件的影响,就必须探明天气、气候变化及其对相关人群健康的影响,从健康角度合理评估区域气候状况,以便趋利避害。中国大陆是对全球气候变化响应最敏感的地区之一,全面系统地开展此方面的评估研究很有必要。已有的研究表明,影响人体健康的主要气象因素有温度、湿度、风速等,它们往往会产生协同效应。以往从单一要素评估气候变化对健康的影响,带有一定的局限性；此外,对长期生活在不同气候类型下的人群体征及其对冷热敏感程度的差异也很少考虑。因此,要从健康角度科学合理地评估气候及其影响,就需要有能反映多要素协同作用及不同气候类型差异的评估指标。鉴于此,本文选取以温度为主,多要素协同作用的舒适度指数为切入点,利用常规气象站地面观测资料分析了中国大陆地区近52年的舒适度时空分布特征；研究了有益于人群健康的广义舒适域(微热、舒适和凉爽)的时空变化规律；在此基础上,着重探讨了我国大陆地区对健康危害最大的酷热域(极热不舒适)和严寒域(极冷不舒适)的时空分布特征；进而研究了反映两类极不舒适的典型天气过程。最后,以典型代表城市为例,将气象观测资料与疾病(死亡)资料相结合,研究揭示了气候变化对典型代表城市舒适度的影响及其与循环系统疾病死亡人数的关系；阐述了不同季节诱发典型代表城市循环系统疾病患者死亡的天气类型。主要研究结果如下：1.本文采用多要素协同作用的一种新的舒适度指数,能够体现以温度为主、综合反映多种与人体健康密切相关气象要素的协同作用。由此细致确定了各站点每个月人体最佳舒适温度的阈值；考虑了由我国幅员辽阔、气候背景不同引起的体感差异；并客观体现了湿度和风速在高温和低温条件下对人体感觉的放大效应。据此在本研究中,着重探讨了我国大陆对人体健康有益的广义舒适域(微热、舒适和凉爽三个舒适度等级)和体感极不舒适、易诱发相关天气敏感性疾病的酷热域和严寒域的时空分布特征。2.对我国大陆健康气候评估结果表明,利于健康生活的广义舒适域空间分布存在明显的地域性和季节性变化的特点。就舒适日数空间分布而言,全年中国大陆地区出现舒适日数最多的10个站点都位于西南地区,且均位于北回归线(23.50N)附近,年均舒适日数均超过259.9d,占全年总日数的71%以上；不同季节广义舒适域空间分布有差异,其中,春季西南地区最舒适；夏季350N以北的区域和西南地区较舒适；秋季350N以南的区域较舒适；冬季华南地区较为舒适。近几十年来,受全球气候变化的影响,我国大陆广义舒适域空间分布也有明显的变化,春季,舒适范围由东南沿海向内陆扩展近10个经(纬)度,其中西南地区的舒适范围向东北方向扩展。夏季,以1050E为界,以西的区域广义舒适域日数向高海拔的青藏高原呈明显的增加趋势；以东的区域中,450N以北的高纬地区广义舒适域日数减少明显。秋季,350N以北的区域舒适范围向高纬扩展；而西南地区舒适范围则向东北和西北方向扩展近2个纬度。冬季,250N以南的区域舒适范围呈现明显向北扩展的趋势,近半个世纪向北推进了近2个纬度。3.关于广义舒适域日数的年际变化,我国绝大部分地区(华南除外)均表现为增加趋势,其中以青藏高原增加最为明显(气候倾向率为4.15d/10a)。就各季节而言,春季,除华南地区外,其余地区广义舒适域日数均为增加趋势,且以华中地区增加最为明显；夏季,广义舒适域日数在青藏高原增加明显(气候倾向率为2.27d/10a),其余各地区均有减少；秋季,除华东和华南地区舒适日数呈减少趋势,其余地区均呈增加趋势,以青藏高原增加最为显著(1.38d/10a)；冬季,华东、华中、华南和西南地区广义舒适域日数都表现为增加趋势,其中,华南地区增加最明显(1.67d/10a)。不同月份的广义舒适域空间分布特点是：11月至次年3月华南地区较为舒适；4月华东、华中、华南地区较舒适；5月份除华南和青藏高原地区外,全国各地区均体感舒适；6月东北、西南地区较舒适；7月青藏高原地区较为舒适；8月,西南地区较舒适；9月北方地区(青藏高原除外)和西南地区较为舒适；10月华中、华东和西南地区较为舒适。这些研究结果可为广大民众科学择地、择时出行和旅游以及“候鸟式”养生提供参考依据。4.研究显示,对健康危害明显的酷热和严寒两个舒适度等级时空分布也有较明显的特征。就酷热日数的年际变化而言,近52年来,除青藏高原外,中国大陆其余地区酷热日数(出现在5-9月)都有不同程度的增加,尤以华东、华中和华南地区增加最为明显,而且华东和华中地区酷热天气的强度比华南地区更大,对相关人群健康危害更大。受全球气候变暖大背景的影响,与酷热日数变化相反,中国大陆地区严寒日数(出现在11月至次年3月)主要出现在中、高纬地区,并呈现减少趋势,其中以东北地区减少最明显,气候倾向率为-3.89d/1Oa。5.众所周知,全球气候异常变化的一种强信号,就是极端天气气候事件增多,无疑它对相关人群健康也造成严重威胁。本文通过对一次极热不舒适天气过程(2013年江淮等地区高温热浪天气过程)的研究表明,西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)是造成此次极热不舒适天气的主要影响系统；高温期间副高整体位置异常偏北,面积增大,强度增强,西伸明显,脊线北抬,表明每年盛夏期间,副高持续控制是造成我国江淮流域高温热浪、产生极热不舒适、对相关人群健康造成威胁的主要天气系统。2008年初南方地区低温雨雪冰冻天气过程是一次典型的极冷不舒适天气过程,分析结果表明,此次天气过程中我国大陆最低体感温度呈现大幅度下降(最大距平值为-9.7℃),其原因是对流层中层500hPa上贝加尔湖到西伯利亚处存在一个大横槽,由此不断有冷空气南袭所致；期间,南方地区呈现低温高湿状态,其高湿的原因是对流层中下层有两条水汽输送带,分别来自于孟加拉湾和南海地区,这种低温高湿的搭配效应加剧了当地居民对寒冷的体感程度,对健康极为非常不利,重者可导致死亡,例如南京市循环系统疾病在2008年初由低温雨雪冰冻极端天气事件引起的死亡人数明显多于其他年份。6.以南京市为例,对不同研究舒适度等级及相关气象条件与循环系统疾病死亡人数关系的研究结果显示,极冷和极热不舒适是造成循环系统疾病患者死亡的主要原因,具体表现为,在隆冬季节出现循环系统疾病患者死亡的最大峰值；而在盛夏时期,出现死亡的次峰值：此外,体感温度骤升或骤降也是诱发循环系统疾病患者发病、致死的重要原因之一。研究还发现,不同季节导致循环系统疾病患者死亡的主要天气类型也各不相同,夏季高温高湿的闷热天气是诱发循环系统疾病患者死亡的主要天气类型；而秋、冬两季,强冷空气活动是引起循环系统疾病患者发病致死的主要原因。由此也表明,在舒适的季节或阶段患有循环系统疾病的人群则不易发病,其死亡率也是不高。综上所述,从舒适度研究入手,对气候的健康效应进行评估是一种有效的尝试,初步解决了研究气候变化对人群健康影响的一个瓶颈问题。可为推动此方面研究的不断深入,倡导广大民众适应气候、趋利避害、促进健康做出应有的贡献。更多还原

【Abstract】 The last four assessment reports published by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pointed out that human health would be affected by climate change directly or indirectly. On the one hand, more and more extremes climate events and meteorological disasters will make the spread of some diseases more prevalent. On the other hand, variation of some meteorological factors also result in some weather-sensitive diseases or recurrent exacerbations, further more increase the morbidity and mortality, expanded disease’s geographical range. As a result, human survival and development will be under threat. Therefore, in order to adapt to the global climate change and reduce its negative effects on human health and emergency disease, we must do some research on the effect among the weather, climate change and its influence on related people’s health. China’s mainland is one of the most sensitive areas responding to global climate change.In order to avoid disadvantages of climate change, it’s important to assess regional climate condition based on human health.Previous studies shows that meteorological factors, including temperature, humidity and wind speed, etc, can affect human health, and conform to synergy effect with each other. It is limitations to assess the impact of climate change on health by a single meteorological factor. Moreover, the differences of living for a long time under the different climate types is also rarely considered. Therefore, it is necessary to build a reasonable and scientific method to assessment the relationship between climate changes and human health by using multiple meteorological elements.In view of this, multi-element synergy human comfort index based mainly on temperature has been built, and the temporal and spatial distribution of human comfort index and human comfortable degree have been calculated and analyzed by using daily surface observational data over China’s mainland in recent52years. Then, the extreme heat and cold temporal evolution of the two uncomfortable weather features which have large harm to human health was emphatically analyzed. In addition, abnormal atmospheric circulation during two typical uncomfortable events (Heat wave in2013and Severe Snow and Freezing-Rain in2008) had been explored. Finally, the relationship between weather conditions and circulatory system deaths on typical urban have been analyzed by using the meteorological data and daily circulatory system mortality data. The weather types which can evoke circulatory disease mortality in patients in typical urban have been discerned in different seasons. The main results are as follows:1. A new comfort index algorithm what combines with some factors is used to evaluate the impact of climate changes on human health. Measure the most comfortable temperature of each month in every station. Adjust human feelings difference in each station, in which has different climatic ground. Wind reflects the amplification effect in hot and humid conditions, and also role in low humidity conditions on human feelings. Comfort index can be a technical method applied to evaluate healthy climate. In this paper, focused research on of the human health benefits of comfort degrees (degree-warm, degree-comfortable, degree-cool), and extremely uncomfortable (heat and sever cold degree), which easy to induce the relevant weather-sensitive disease.2. Results of assessment on healthy climate show that the comfortable days have obvious regional and seasonal differences. Comfortable days most10stations appear in southwest China, and all of them located near the tropic of cancer (23.5(?)), with the days of259.9d/a, accounted for more than71%of the total annual number of days. There are more comfortable days of Southwest China in spring. In summer, more comfortable days occur in north of35(?) and southwest China. But in fall, south of35(?) region are more comfort for life. Southern China has most comfortable days in winter. Comfortable days have obvious changes during recent decades affect by global climate changes. Comfortable range extended from the southeast coast of the continent, nearly10longitude (latitude), and comfortable extension of the scope of the southwest to the northeast region in spring. In summer, to105(?) is bounded, west of the high-altitude Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is a significant increasing trend; east of the region, the number of comfortable days develop to south region, ranging nearly seven latitudes. In fall, days develop to the high latitudes in south of25(?). Comfortable zone to the northeast and northwest expansion in southwest region, changes in nearly two latitudes. In winter, comfort zone is clearly presented the development of the north in south of25(?), and it changes nearly two progressive north latitude from the1960s to the early21st century.3. The temporal distribution of comfortable days on interannual scales, number of annual comfortable days showed an upward trend in all of the regions except South China, with the most obvious change in the Tibetan Plateau (4.15d/10a). In spring, more comfortable days occur in center, southern, southwest and eastern China, and all of the regions show an increasing trend except southern China. In summer, comfortable days show a trend of decrease, except Qinghai-Tibet plateau (with rate2.27d/10a). The number of comfortable days in southern and eastern China have trend of decrease in fall, but the rest of region have a trend of increase, especially in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (1.38d/10a). In winter, the comfortable days appear rising trend in eastern, central, southern, southwest China, especially in southern China, with rate of1.67d/10a. People feel comfortable in southern from November to March; Eastern, central and southern regions are more comfortable in April; All of region over China’s mainland is comfortable region in May, except for the south and the Tibetan Plateau; In June, people feel more comfortable in northeast and southwest regions; Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is more comfortable in July; In August, people feel more comfortable in south west China; Northern region (except Tibet Plateau) and Southwest regions are more comfortable in September; The eastern and southwest China is more comfortable region in October.4. Analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme uncomfortable days (heat and sever cold) which threat to human health. Main results are as follow: Heat days in all regions, except Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, are increased, and the phenomenon most obvious in eastern, center and southern China. Furthermore, heat days in southern China not as strength as in eastern and central China, which has large harm to human health. In general, number of annual heat days increase evidently in southern than northern China. Sever cold days has obvious changes compared with changes of heat days, what affected by the background of global warming, especially in northeast China, with downward trend rate of-3.89d/10a. On the whole, sever cold days appear in the middle and high latitude region, with some stations’ sever cold degree days are occur from November to March. 5. A strong signal of global climate anomalies, that is increase in extreme weather events, it is undoubtedly a serious threat to human health related. Analysis of atmospheric circulation of an hot uncomfortable weather (heat wave weather occur in2013), West Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) is the mainly system of this process. Vice subtropical high index indicates that area of WPSH northerly than average state, intensity increased, ridge line northward obvious inclining to the west. WPSH sustained control in jianghuai valley cause heat wave, thermal uncomfortable days, what threat to people health in each summer. Analyze the atmospheric circulation of an uncomfortable cold weather in2008, There is a large cross between Lake Baikal and Siberia at the middle troposphere, and a continued of cold advection import into China. In addition, High humidity shows in southern China, because there are two main paths to continue the water vapor transport to the south in the lower troposphere, one is from the Bay of Bengal, and other one is from the South China Sea. The collocation of low temperature and humidity effect added to the local residents to the cold feeling, adverse to their health, even lead to death. As a example, circulatory mortality peak has a continuous day is in mid-January to mid-February,2008.6. Taking Nanjing as an example, Change of weather conditions and climate comfort are all contact with increased disease recurrence directly. Study on circulatory system diseases deaths and meteorological elements in Nanjing. It can be found that cold effect is one of the main causes of circulatory system diseases death. On the one hand, cold uncomfortable domains (or under extreme cold conditions) circulatory disease deaths are more concentrated. Maximum peak of mortality of circulatory diseases appear in the middle of winter, while in the summer season, the peak occurrences of mortality. On the other hand, apparent temperature changes suddenly also cause circulatory system diseases patients death. Different forms of combination with meteorological factors in different seasons, which has different ways to impact on human health. In summer, higher temperature and higher humidity will aggravate the patients with circulatory diseases. In fall and winter, low temperature is mainly reason. In addition, wind speed maximum in fall and precipitation in winter could not be ignored.In conclusion, it’s an effective attempt on evaluation of health effect of climate changes by using multi-element synergy human comfort index and the results solved a key problem. The research promote the development of this aspect and make contributions on climatic, avoiding disadvantages and staying health for the public.更多还原