【作者】 桂春雷；

【导师】 陈宗宇； 石建省；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质科学院 ， 地质工程， 2014， 博士

【副题名】以石家庄市为例

【摘要】 随着工业化和城镇化进程的发展,水资源缺乏已经成为制约石家庄市经济增长的“短板”。作为水资源供需矛盾突出的省会城市,其城市水资源承载力现状如何,现状水资源究竟可以承载多少工业增加值、养活多少人口、能灌溉多少农田、能饲养多少头家畜,未来到底应该采取何种措施来对水资源进行调控才能达到既保护环境又提高了水资源承载力的目的,这些对本市未来的社会发展具有十分现实的意义。本文对水资源承载力的研究现状和进展进行了综述,在对其中现存问题进行分析基础上,从水资源承载力所依据的基本理论研究开始,探讨了五个方面问题,即：(1)对城市水资源承载力理论基础体系进行拓展和深化研究,加强了对水系统组成、分类及其子系统运行过程与城市水资源承载力的相关性研究；(2)对城市水资源承载力定义、内涵以及特征等进行研究,并依据基础理论研究成果提出基于水代谢的城市水资源承载力；(3)对城市水资源承载力评价指标体系进行研究,运用理论分析法结合改进的灰色关联度分析法对待选指标进行筛选,建立了基于水代谢的城市水资源承载力评价指标体系；(4)引入粗糙集理论及其赋权方法结合模糊综合评价法对城市水资源承载力的进行评价研究,应用引入并经改进的方法对研究区现状水资源承载力进行评价；(5)建立基于水代谢的城市水资源承载力系统动力学仿真模型,对城市水资源承载力进行调控研究。通过以上研究主要取得了如下几个进展：(1)深化了城市水资源承载力理论基础体系中水系统理论的研究,对以水的社会循环和再生利用为核心的水代谢系统的状态与城市水资源承载力的关系进行论述分析,对水系统进行了定义和组成、特征研究,在对水代谢过程及水代谢系统研究分析的基础上,定义了城市水代谢系统概念。研究表明水循环、水代谢与水再生是城市区域水系统运转过程的重要组成部分,其中城市再生水水量、水质是水的社会代谢作用高效发挥的关键条件。城市水代谢系统中,水循环和水再生力度的加强可以显著地提高城市水代谢状态,同时使城市水资源承载力状况得以改善。(2)在前人研究基础上,重新定义城市水资源承载力,提出了基于水代谢的城市水资源承载力概念。提出了水代谢率(water-system metabolic rate: WMR)对城市水代谢系统状况进行定量描述,并将城市水代谢系统状况分为4个级别,为基于水代谢的城市水资源承载力模型的量化奠定了基础。研究分析了不同城市水代谢系统运行模式及其调控措施,为不同的发展规划下人类利用技术手段对基于水代谢的城市水资源承载力进行调控建立了理论依据。(3)利用前述理论研究成果进行理论分析,并引入灰色关联度分析法结合相关分析、Delphi法,对传统的灰色关联度分析进行了改进,应用改进的指标筛选方法分析计算得到21个指标,并在理论研究指导下构建了基于水代谢的城市水资源承载力指标体系。引入目前在水资源承载力评价研究中还没有得到应用的粗糙集理论及其赋权方法,以及目前在该评价研究中应用较少的TOPSIS模型,结合模糊综合评价方法与熵权法与AHP法综合赋权,对研究区内各个市县的城市水资源承载力现状进行评价。(4)建立了基于水代谢的城市水资源承载力系统动力学动态仿真模型,在不同的城市水代谢运行模式下采用不同的调控措施对石家庄市区城市水资源承载力进行动态调控。结果表明旧有城市水代谢模式下2025年石家庄市区所能承载的工业增加值为868.53亿元,城镇人口为298.35万人,农业灌溉面积为18.26万亩,牲畜饲养头数为40.25万头；新型城市水代谢模式下2025年市区所能承载的工业增加值为3670.23亿元,城镇人口为763.78万人,农业灌溉面积为24.35万亩,牲畜饲养头数为83.75万头。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of industrialization and urbanization, a lack of water resources has become the "short plank" restraining the increase in the economy of Shijiazhuang. As an provincial capital with an obvious imbalance between supply and demand for water resources, how about its urban water resources carrying capacity(UWRCC), how much industrial added value it can afford, how many population it can support, and how many farmland it can irrigate as well as how many domestic animals it can feed, by what measures to regulate and control water resources in the future the city can protect its environment and enhance its UWRCC. All these questions have a completely realistic significance for the future social development of the city.After summarizing the research and progress into WRCC, with the beginning of the basic theoretical study of UWRCC, the dissertation discusses five aspects of issues:(1) the basic theoretical system of UWRCC is expanded and further researched, the composition, classification of water system and correlation studies between the operational process of water subsystem and UWRCC is deeply explored;(2)the definition, connotation and features is researched, and urban water resources carrying capacity based on water metabolism(UWRCCWM) is proposed according to theoretical research results;(3) the evaluation index system of UWRCC is researched, by combining theoretical analysis with the improved grey correlation degree analysis (IGCDA)candidate indices is selected, the evaluation index system of UWRCCWM is established;(4) rough set theory (RST) and its weighting method is introduced to evaluate UWRCC combining with fuzzy synthetic evaluation, and the improved introduced method is applied to assess the current UWRCC of study area;(5)the simulation model of system dynamics of UWRCCWM is constructed to conduct the research into dynamic regulation and controlling of UWRCCWM.Through the above researches several main progresses is obtained:(1)The water system theory study of basic theoretical system is deepen, the definition, composition and features of water system is studied, the relation between water metabolism system that is powered by social circulation of water and recycling and UWRCC. On the basis of the research of water metabolism process and water metabolism system, the concept of urban water metabolism system (UWMS) is defined. The study indicates that water circulation, water metabolism and water recycling are the important components of water system of urban area,the yield of urban reclaimed water and its water quality are the crucial condition of giving full play to water social metabolism. The enhancement of Water circulation and water recycling of urban water metabolism can markedly boost the status of urban water metabolism, and makes the condition of UWRCC improved at the same time.(2) The definition of UWRCC is redefined on the basis of previous research result, the concept of UWRCCWM is proposed. Thewater-system metabolic rate (WMR) is proposed to quantify the conditions of UWMS, and divides the conditions of UWMS into4levels, which lay the foundation for the quantification of the model of UWRCCWM. Different patterns of urban water metabolism and their regulation measures are explored and analyzed, which establish the theoretical basis for regulation and control of UWRCCWM under the different conditions of development programs.(3) Usingtheoretical research result to conduct theoretical analysis, and introducing grey grey correlation degree analysis combining with correlation analysis and Delphi to improve traditional grey correlation degree analysis, and employ the improved method to analyze and calculate and finally obtain21evaluation indices, under the guidance of theoretical research the index system of UWRCCWM is constructed. RSTand its weighting method that is not yet employed in current evaluation researches of WRCCis introduced, and TOPSIS model that less used in the evaluation researches, RST and TOPSIS combine with fuzzy synthetic evaluation and comprehensive weighting by entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is employed to assess the current conditions of UWRCC in every city and county of research area.(4) The simulation model of system dynamics of UWRCCWM is built, and regulates and controls UWRCC of Shijiazhuang under different pattern of urban water metabolism by the model. The results shows that under the old pattern of urban water metabolism the water resources of the Shijiazhuang urban district are capable of carrying RMB868.53billion industrial added value, supporting urban population298.35million, irrigating18.26million mu, and feeding40.25million domestic animals in2025; however, under the new pattern of urban water metabolism the water resources of the Shijiazhuang urban district are capable of carrying RMB3670.23billion industrial added value, supporting urban population763.78million, irrigating24.35million mu, and feeding83.75million domestic animals in2025.更多还原