【作者】 周磊；

【导师】 赵定涛； 魏玖长；

【作者基本信息】 中国科学技术大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 美国著名的政治学家萨缪尔·亨廷顿(Samuel P. Huntington)提出了一个关于政治稳定与现代化进程关系的经典命题：“现代性孕育着稳定,而现代化过程却滋生着动乱。”现阶段,我国正处于经济体制转型、社会结构变动、社会形态变迁的关键历史时期,从计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制、从传统社会向现代社会、从农业社会向工业社会、从封闭性社会向开放性社会的转变和发展。人口、资源、环境、效率、公平等社会矛盾越来越突出且日益加剧,造成经济容易失调、社会容易失序、心理容易失衡,可以说当前是我国改革发展的关键时期,又是社会矛盾日益凸显的爆发期。社会矛盾的涌现导致近年来群体性突发事件的发生次数不断上升,参与群体的规模日益扩大,群体行为的对抗程度也在逐步升级,这些已经对我国社会的有序稳定造成了严重的影响。自2000年1月1日至2013年9月30日,被我国境内正式出版发行的纸质媒体以及拥有“互联网新闻信息服务许可”的网络媒体所报道的群体性突发事件就有3145起,其造成的生命、财产损失更是无法估量。因此,群体性突发事件的科学预防、合理处置对于我国构建和谐社会、推进现代化进程有着至关重要的意义。本研究即在这一历史背景下,对群体性突发事件及群体行为的演化机理与发展规律展开深入的探讨和研究,以期为科学预防、合理处置群体性突发事件提供理论依据和科学借鉴。本研究的主要工作如下：(1)群体性突发事件中谣言信息的扩散模式研究。从突发事件中应急信息扩散的理论研究入手,结合具体的案例分析谣言信息扩散在群体性突发事件中所起的导火索或催化剂的作用。构建谣言信息在正式渠道和非正式渠道——两种不同传播渠道下的扩散模式以及最终的扩散结果,并通过计算机仿真模拟出不同状态条件下谣言信息的扩散模式和结果。(2)群体性突发事件中群体行为演化机理分析。群体抢购行为尤其是突发事件后恐慌抢购行为是一种常见的、典型的群体行为。本研究以群体抢购行为为特定研究对象,在库尔特·卢因(Kurt Lewin)的群体行为动力学理论的基础上,引入中介变量——个体的抢购心理预期价值判断,构建群体抢购行为的动力理论模型。结合2011年3月份日本核危机背景下发生在我国的公众抢盐事件这一案例,对群体性突发事件中群体行为的演化机理、生命周期进行了分析。(3)群体性突发事件中群体行为态势演化评估。基于霍曼斯(Homans)的群体行为构成三要素理论,从活动、相互影响、情绪三个方面对搜集到的52起群体性突发事件中的群体行为态势进行评估,并采用等级评估法对评估的结果进行等级划分。从群体结构特征、事件特征、环境因素三个方面选取变量,对群体性突发事件中群体行为态势的影响因素进行回归分析,结果表明事件发生地点、人员伤亡和群体内部关系这三个影响因素对群体行为态势的影响都很显著。(4)群体性突发事件中群体行为应对策略分析。在前文研究结果的基础上,从外部环境、群体结构、信息沟通三个维度有针对性地提出合理应对群体性突发事件及其群体行为的政策建议,为相关利益主体提供参考和借鉴。本研究的创新之处主要体现在三个方面：(1)从突发事件应急信息的传播渠道入手,根据信息在正式渠道和非正式渠道两种不同传播渠道下的扩散规律及扩散状态的差异,构建群体性突发事件中谣言信息和正确信息的在两种传播渠道作用下的扩散模型,并采用系统仿真的手段,分析两类信息在不同状态条件下的扩散模式。结果表明,两类信息的扩散速度受到正式渠道覆盖范围的影响；最终的扩散规模与信息发布的准确性和权威性存在正相关的关系；公众的应急素质则影响信息扩散达到稳定状态时所需要的时间。(2)通过引入中介变量——个体的抢购心理预期价值判断,对Kurt Lewin的群体行为动力学理论进行了创新,并在此基础上构建了群体抢购行为的动力理论模型。结合2011年3月份日本核危机背景下发生在我国的食盐抢购事件这一案例的分析发现,个体产生抢购行为受到内在生命安全需要的驱动和外在群体环境因素的影响；其中,外在群体环境因素是通过影响中介变量——抢购心理预期价值判断而影响个体行为决策；另外,在抢购事件演化的不同阶段,每个影响因素的作用力有所不同。(3)基于Homans的群体行为构成三要素理论,选取活动、相互影响和情绪这三个指标对群体行为的态势演化进行评估。采用等级评估法对群体性突发事件中群体行为的态势进行评估,并按标准进行等级划分。然后从群体结构特征、事件特征、环境因素三方面选取变量,回归分析的结果表明,事件发生地点、人员伤亡和群体内部关系对群体行为构成三个要素的影响都很显著。对于群体性突发事件中群体行为态势的定量评估以及影响因素分析,为学界对群体行为的研究做出了一定的理论贡献。本研究的实践意义在于：从外部环境、群体结构、信息沟通三个维度,对群体性突发事件及其群体行为的科学预防和合理处置提出了应对策略,为相关利益主体提供实践层面的参考和借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 The famous American political scientist Samuel Phillips Huntington stated the famous paradox that "modernity produces stability and modernization instability."At this stage, our country is in the key historical period of transition and development in the economic system, social structure and social pattern:from a planned economy to a socialist market economy, from a traditional society to a modern society, from an agricultural society to an industrial society, from a closed society to an open society. Population, resources, environment, efficiency, equity and other social contradictions are increasingly serious. Economic dysfunction, social disorder, and mental imbalance are common, we can say this is a critical period of China’s reform and development, but also the social contradictions have become increasingly prominent outbreak.The emergence of social conflicts in recent years, resulting in the number of occurrences of mass incidents rising, the scale of participation in groups expanding, the degree of mass behavior intensifying, which has already caused serious influence on China’s social stability. Since January1,2000to September30,2013, there are3145pieces of mass incidents, which have been reported by the officially publishing print media and the having "Internet News Information Service License" network media. The social impact and damage of life and property caused by these mass incidents are incalculable. In the light of this, scientific prevention and reasonable disposition of mass incidents have crucial importance for our country building a harmonious society and promoting the modernization process. In this historical context, this study is carried out to research the evolution mechanism and development law of mass incidents and group behavior, so as to provide a theoretical basis and scientific references for the prevention and disposal of mass incidents. The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1) Diffusion model of rumor information in mass incident. In order to study the diffusion characteristics under different mode of transmission, this paper, based on BASS Model, constructs the diffusion model of proper information and rumor information in mass incidents, and simulate the diffusion rules and state differences of two types of information under the condition of different parameters through the Matlab software. The result shows that the growth of two types of information diffusion curve is affected by channel coefficients; it has positive relationship between the final scale and information accuracy in informal channels.(2) Evolution mechanism of collective behavior in mass incidents. A dynamic theory model of panic buying evolution has been built by referring to the theory of group dynamics, and incorporating a mediator variable--the judgment for psychologically expected value of panic buying. Based on case study of the salt panic buying in China during the Japan nuclear crisis, this paper analyzed the evolution mechanism of panic buying under the public crisis and arrived at some conclusion: the individual’s taking part in panic buying was driven by their inherent need; in the process of judgment, the individual was not only concerned about the change in the cost of panic buying, but also the authenticity expectations of the incentive information and the adequacy expectations of the resources; the active force of the group’s internal and external environmental factors affected individual’s decision-making through affecting its value judgment of psychological expectations.(3) Situation assessment of collective behavior in mass incidents. Based on the three elements-activity, interaction and sentiment-of collective behaviors in52mass incidents in China during2007-2011, we find the collective behavior in mass incidents has significant difference in activity, interaction and sentiment. The grade evaluation method is proposed to estimate the evolution of collective behaviors in52mass incidents and classify them into five grades. Then the influence factors on the three elements are analyzed by using multiple linear regression. The regression results demonstrate that the impacts of location, casualty, inner-group relations, group scale and duration on the three elements are very significant.(4) Coping strategies of collective behavior in mass incidents. Based on the foregoing findings, this paper proposes some reasonable comprehensive policy proposals from the three dimensions-external environment, population structure, and information communication, to deal with mass incidents and group behavior, in order to provide reference for relevant stakeholders.Originality of this study is that:(1) In order to study the diffusion characteristics under different mode of transmission, this paper, based on BASS Model, constructs the diffusion model of proper information and rumor information in mass incidents, and simulate the diffusion rules and state differences of two types of information under the condition of different parameters through the Matlab software. The result shows that the growth of two types of information diffusion curve is affected by channel coefficients; it has positive relationship between the final scale and information accuracy in informal channels.(2) A dynamic theory model of panic buying evolution has been built by referring to the theory of group dynamics, and incorporating a mediator variable--the judgment for psychologically expected value of panic buying. Based on case study of the salt panic buying in China during the Japan nuclear crisis, this paper analyzed the evolution mechanism of panic buying under the public crisis and arrived at some conclusion:the individual’s taking part in panic buying was driven by their inherent need; in the process of judgment, the individual was not only concerned about the change in the cost of panic buying, but also the authenticity expectations of the incentive information and the adequacy expectations of the resources; the active force of the group’s internal and external environmental factors affected individual’s decision-making through affecting its value judgment of psychological expectations.(3) Based on the three elements-activity, interaction and sentiment-of collective behaviors in52mass incidents in China during2007-2011, we find the collective behavior in mass incidents has significant difference in activity, interaction and sentiment. The grade evaluation method is proposed to estimate the evolution of collective behaviors in52mass incidents and classify them into five grades. Then the influence factors on the three elements are analyzed by using multiple linear regression. The regression results demonstrate that the impacts of location, casualty, inner-group relations, group scale and duration on the three elements are very significant.The practical implication is that:Based on the foregoing findings, this paper proposes some reasonable comprehensive policy proposals from the three dimensions-external environment, population structure, and information communication, to deal with mass incidents and group behavior, in order to provide reference for relevant stakeholders.更多还原