【作者】 王英杰；

【导师】 王磊； 赵大军；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 地质工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 泥石流作为一种突发的地质灾害，其来势凶猛、流量大、破坏力强、发生时间短而复发频率高，灾害分布范围广，数量多，是世界性的地质灾害。山区所具有的地质环境背景使得山区成为泥石流的多发地区，我国国土面积的三分之二为山地，因此我国是泥石流灾害严重的国家之一。泥石流灾害已经危害山区的生活稳定、社会生产及经济发展，要规避上述问题以及保护人民生命财产安全，急需对泥石流进行研究。本文在对金沙江流域的20条泥石流危险性进行综合评价过程中，运用了下列非线性方法：“最小熵”、“通径分析”、“层次分析法”、“熵值法”、“可拓理论”以及“组合赋权法”，并对各泥石流危险度评价模型的特点及不同之处进行对比分析。有如下主要的研究内容及成果：1、本文研究对象为金沙江波罗水电站库坝区内的泥石流，经过野外的实地进行调查、资料的精心搜集以及进行室内资料的解译整理，分析了金沙江波罗水电站库坝区泥石流的整体发育条件，并详细介绍20条典型泥石流的地质地貌特征以及发育情况。在前人研究的基础上，结合研究区泥石流的具体情况，初步提取泥石流评价的12个指标。2、运用最小熵法和通径分析法分别对初步选取的评价指标进行约简优化，两者约简后的指标集分别为{流域切割密度、泥砂补给段长度比、植被覆盖率、流域内人口密度、主沟平均比降、主沟长度、流域面积}、{流域切割密度、流域内人口密度、主沟平均比降、单位面积物源量、主沟长度、流域面积}，两组指标集均能充分反映泥石流危险度的信息。3、采用层次分析法、熵值法的组合赋权法计算组合权重，结合后的两组指标集，分别建立研究区泥石流危险性评价的最小熵-可拓模型及通径分析-可拓模型，对研究区泥石流危险度进行分级。4、为了对比验证最小熵和通径分析法结果的客观合理性，本文引入传统的刘希林模型对研究区泥石流危险性进行评价，以作对比。结果表明：最小熵-可拓模型模型判对率更高，且更安全合理。5、两个模型提取的指标组合均包括流域切割密度、流域内人口密度、主沟平均比降、主沟长度、流域面积，说明这5个指标为泥石流危险度评价的重要影响因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 Debris flow, which as a sudden natural disasters, the ferocious, largeflow, destructive, shorter time and higher frequency of recurrence,iswidely distributing and often occuring. The mountains often happen debrisflow because their geological circumstances are proned to forming anddeveloping debris flow. China is a country with about two-thirds of thetotal land area is mountain. There, it is one of the countries undergoingsevere debris flows. The debris flow hazard area has stable life, socialproduction and economic development, in order to avoid the above problemsand protect people’s lives and property safety, an urgent need for studiesof debris flow.In this paper,20debris flow risk of Jinsha River basin comprehensiveevaluation process, using the nonlinear methods:"minimum entropy","pathanalysis","analytic hierarchy process","entropy","extension theory"and "the combination weighting method", and the characteristics of thedangerous degree of debris flow the evaluation model and differenceanalysis. There are the main research contents and contributions:1.The object of study is the Jinsha Jiang Bo Luo hydropower stationreservoir area of debris flow, through field investigation, datacollected and indoor data interpretation of finishing, analyses theconditions the overall development of hydropower station reservoir areaof debris flow Kim Shah Jean Polo, and introduced in detail the geologicalfeatures of the20typical debris flow and development. On the basis ofprevious studies, combined with the specific circumstances of debris flowin the study area, the preliminary extraction of12indices of debris flowevaluation.2. Applied the minimum entropy and path analysis to preliminary selection of evaluation index reduction optimization. The results of eachothers were {drainage density、loose material supply length ratio、Vegetation coverage、population density of the drainage、average gradientof the main channel、length of the main channel、drainage area}、{drainagedensity、population density of the drainage、average gradient of the mainchannel、average material、 length of the main channel、drainage area}、3．Applied the analytic hierarchy process and entropy method tocalculate the combination weighting.Respectively to establish debrisflow risk assessment in the study area of minimum entropy-extensiontheory model and path theroy-extension theory model of debris flow riskclassification in the studied area.4. In order to verifing the rationality and reliability of the twomodel, this paper introduced the traditional Liu Xilin model for debrisflow risk evaluation in the study area.The results showed that the minimumentropy-extension theory model has a higher safety and rationality.5. The commom evaluation indexs extracted by the two models weredrainage density, population density of the drainage, average gradientof the main channel, length of the main channel and drainage area, whichmaybe indicate thoese five index play important roles in evaluating thedebris flow hazard.更多还原