【作者】 安丰军；

【导师】 安海忠；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 管理科学与工程， 2014， 博士

【副题名】基于小波分析方法

【摘要】 钻井工程是石油勘探以及开采过程中最重要的环节。同时，钻井工程的开支在石油勘探以及开采成本中所占的比例也是占有绝对优势，国内钻井成本在原油开采成本中占到40%以上，而国外钻井费用约占勘探费用的50%-80%，油田开发成本的30%(海上)-80%(陆上)。另一方面，钻井工程虽然作为原油相关的上游行业，但其在生产中又需要柴油等以原油为原料的基础材料。因此，钻井成本的变化与原油价格波动是一个相互影响、相互作用的过程。美国作为全球最大的石油消费国，其钻井技术在世界范围内一直处于领先水平，钻井成本结构具有代表性，并且美国工业发展水平也是居于世界领先水平，其原油价格对于世界原油交易价格有着重要的导向作用。并且，石油的供给已经是美国经济增长，特别是工业生产重要影响因素。这与我国经济发展过程中对石油的依赖现状相似。同时，美国原油价格的波动对世界原油供给成本的影响较大。因此，以美国为例，研究原油价格对其工业发展的影响作用，对发现我国工业发展过程中原油价格波动的影响作用有着重要的启示意义。本研究通过原油价格作为传导路径，使用极大重叠离散小波，并采取小波方差、小波相关和小波互相关指标，对钻井成本主要影响因素柴油价格、钢铁价格与原油价格之间的动态关系以及原油价格和工业发展之间的动态关系展开了多分辨率的小波分析。研究结果显示，以美国为例，钻井成本自2000年以来不断上涨，这与柴油价格和钢材价格的上涨有紧密的关系。此外，原油价格的波动程度比柴油价格以及钢材价格更为的剧烈，说明原油价格的波动受更多因素的影响。在相关关系方面，钢铁价格、柴油价格与原油价格在长短周期上都显示具有同步性的特征。而对原油价格和美国工业发展来说，原油价格的波动比工业发展指数的波动更为强烈；在相关关系方面，两者之间存在的显著的关联性。此外，在16-32个月的周期上，工业发展指数领先原油价格2个月。钻井成本与原油价格、原油价格与工业发展指数之间均存在显著的相关关系，并在不同尺度下具有时间上的同步性以及价格波动上的传导现象。这些现象对于投资者以及政策制定者均有一定的启示和现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Drilling is one of the main projects in oil and gas exploration and development.Drilling cost accounts for a large fraction in total oil and gas investment. In foreigncountries, drilling cost takes50%to80%of the exploration fee and30%offshore oildevelopment fee and80%onshore development fee. On the other hand, drilling is theupper industry of the crude oil, and one of its main materials is diesel. Hence, thedrilling cost changes and the crude oil price vitality is interacted.The oil consumption of the U.S. is ranked the first place in the world. Drillingtechnology of the US in the world has been at the leading level. And the drillingcost structure can be as a representative. The US industrial development level isone of the world’s leading level. The oil prices of the US in the world oil markethas an important guiding role. Due to its vast economies of scale and high-energyconsumption life style, the demand of the energy is huge, which is the same asChina. The U.S. crude oil price fluctuations have bigger influence on the world oilsupply cost. Taking the example of the US, we study the correlation between theoil prices and the industrial development, which has an important significance tothe process of industrial development.In this research, the crude oil price is defined as the transmission pathwaybetween the drilling cost and the industry development. Using the Maximaloverlap discrete wavelet and choosing the wavelet variance, wavelet correlationand wavelet cross-correlation to detect the dynamic relationship of drillingcost-crude oil price and crude oil price-industry development. The results are listas follows. First, the increasing of the diesel price and steel price pushed the drillingcost, which is due to the high crude oil price in some extent. Second, the crude oilprice is fluctuated much stronger than the prices of diesel and steel in all scales. Themain reason is the crude oil is influenced by more factors than the prices of diesel andsteel.Refer to the correlation; the crude oil price and the prices of diesel and steelmove at the same time, there is no lead-lad relationship.In term of the crude oilprice and industry development, the crude oil is also fluctuating much stronger than the index of the industry development. And they have the significant correlation.Considering lead-lag relationship, under16-32month scale, the industry developmentindex lead the crude oil price2months.The drilling cost-crude oil price and the crudeoil price-industry development index have significant correlation, and simultaneouslyhave different lead-lag relationships. All these results will helpful for investing andpolicymaking.更多还原