【作者】 周卫琪；

【导师】 陈龙；

【作者基本信息】 江苏大学 ， 载运工具运用工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 汽车回收是一个很大的产业,资源潜力巨大,经济效益显著。加强废旧汽车的回收利用,可以实现资源的循环利用,推动汽车行业的可持续发展。我国的汽车保有量和报废汽车数量都在逐年增加,因此,实施和加强汽车逆向物流对于我国来说具有重要的战略意义。在汽车逆向物流研究领域中,库存控制是其重要的研究内容之一,良好的库存控制可以加快企业资金使用效率、周转速度、增加投资收益,可以提高逆向物流系统的效率、增强企业的竞争力。然而,汽车逆向物流库存控制系统是一个复杂的非线性时变系统,具有复杂系统的不确定性、动态性、数据量庞大等特点。针对这一复杂系统,本文引入多智能体理论(MAS),对汽车逆向物流库存控制问题进行研究。多智能体系统是一种崭新且应用前景广阔的研究方法,是更接近自然界本身解题方式的研究方法,具有良好的鲁棒性和灵活性,非常适合处理知识、数据、资源、控制分布的问题。多智能体系统强调分布式自主决策,强调各个Agent之间协作解决问题的能力,这些特点正好契合于汽车逆向物流库存控制在实际运行中所表现出来的动态性、自治性、分布性、弱耦合性等特征。本文首先研究了逆向物流、库存控制以及逆向物流中库存控制等理论,在此基础上,分析了汽车逆向物流的内容、参与主体和逆向物流网络以及汽车逆向物流库存控制系统的特点、要素和不确定因素,论述了汽车逆向物流和汽车逆向物流库存控制系统的复杂性,为基于多智能体理论的汽车逆向物流库存控制研究提供依据。其次,从整个供应链的角度进行逆向物流库存控制的分析和研究,包含供应商、制造商、销售商、回收中心等环节。针对以汽车制造商为中心的供应链多级库存控制问题,提出并建立了汽车逆向物流多级库存控制模型,对可销售产品库存主导的控制模型和回收产品库存主导的控制模型分别建立了汽车逆向物流定期检查处理和定量检查处理的库存控制模型。第三,对Agent技术和多智能体理论进行了详细分析研究,在此基础上,建立了基于多智能体理论的汽车逆向物流库存控制系统模型,并对各Agent进行角色划分,使其更加适合汽车逆向物流库存控制系统,同时,对Agent间的通信和协作方法进行了研究,提出了适合汽车逆向物流库存控制系统的Agent间的通信方式和通信机制,以及Agent间的协作方法。第四,针对某汽车发动机制造企业为中心的逆向物流供应链库存实际进行了实证研究,对库存控制分别进行了建模、仿真计算、灵敏度分析和协作性分析。仿真结果证明了所建立的两种库存控制模型和所采用的基于多智能体理论的库存控制能有效降低汽车逆向物流库存成本。灵敏度分析证明了产品的回收率和回收产品的可再制造率对制造商和回收中心的生产和库存都有很大的影响,提高产品回收率和回收产品的再制造率在一定程度上可以减少逆向物流的库存成本。对两种库存控制模型的协作性分析结果是：各成员企业间存在协作与不存在协作和仅仅制造商和回收中心间存在协作相比,总库存成本分别减少了9.8%和6.5%,12.4%和6.5%。协作性分析证明了通过协调供应链上各成员企业间的库存控制策略可以使整个供应链库存控制达到协调性和一致性,从而降低供应链的库存成本。第五,针对汽车逆向物流库存控制系统,本文提出并建立了相应的绩效评价体系和绩效评价方法,对汽车逆向物流库存控制系统运作所产生的效果进行度量和评价,对汽车逆向物流供应链的整体运行绩效以及各成员企业间的合作关系做出评价,以判断汽车逆向物流库存控制的运作绩效,为寻求更有效的库存控制方式提供评价依据。最后,从制造商、回收中心和回收商,以及整个物流系统考虑,针对如何降低逆向物流系统的库存成本,提出了控制库存成本、提高库存协调性的策略。本文主要是针对汽车逆向物流库存控制问题进行研究,创新引入了多智能体理论,提出了基于多智能体理论的汽车逆向物流库存控制理论和方法,力求达到优化库存成本,避免需求损失和利润损失,更好地管理整个逆向物流系统,促进资源循环利用的目的。论文针对某汽车发动机制造企业为中心的逆向物流供应链库存实际,进行了实证分析,为我国汽车逆向物流库存控制提供了理论基础与技术保障。更多还原

【Abstract】 Automobile recycling is a big industry with enormous resource and significant economic benefits. The recycling of the waste automobiles can realize the resource recycling and promote the development of the automobile industry. The car ownership and the number of the waste cars in China are increasing year by year, therefore, it has an important strategic significance to our country that implementing and strengthening the automobile reverse logistics.In the automobile reverse logistics research field, stock control is an important one. Good stock control can increase the efficiency, velocity and investment income of enterprise fund, which can improve the efficiency of reverse logistics system, and enhance the competitiveness of the company. However, automobile reverse logistics stock control is complex, nonlinear, time-varying, having the characteristics of uncertainty, dynamics and large amounts of data. To deal with it, multi-agent theory is introduced to study automobile reverse logistics stock control in the text. MAS is a novel and prospective method, more close to the way the nature solves problem itself. With good robustness and flexibility, it’s good at dealing with knowledge, data, resources and control distribution. MAS emphasizes distributed independent decision-making and the ability of problem solving through the agents corporate with each other. These qualities correspond to the characteristic the automobile reverse logistics stock control shows in actual operation as dynamics, self-governing, distribution, and weak coupling.Firstly, on the base of the study on the theory of the reverse logistics, inventory control and the inventory control of the reverse logistics, the content, the main participating part and the reverse logistics network of the automobile reverse logistics, as well as the characteristics, key elements and the uncertain factors of the automobile reverse logistics inventory control system are analyzed. Meanwhile, to provide the basis for the study on the automobile reverse logistics inventory control based on multi agent theory, the complexity of automobile reverse logistics and the automobile reverse logistics inventory control system are discussed.Secondly, reverse logistics inventory control is analyzed and studied from the perspective of the entire supply chain, including suppliers, manufacturers, vendors, recycling centers and other sectors. A multi-level car reverse logistics inventory control model is built for the problem of multi-level inventory control of supply chain where the automobile manufacturers are the center. Inventory control models for periodically check process and quantitative examination process are built for the control models where salable product inventory and recovery product inventory play a leading part respectively.Thirdly, Agent technology and multi-agent theory are analyzed in detail. On this basis, a car reverse logistics inventory control system model based on multi-agent theory is established. In addition, the methods of communication and collaboration between the Agents are studied to determine the means and mechanisms of communication as well as collaborative approach among Agents.Fourthly, the Swarm simulation platform can be used to execute instance simulation, sensitivity analysis and collaborative analysis, which is based on the control problems of reverse logistics supply chain inventory centering a car engine manufacturing enterprise. The simulation results prove that the two established inventory control models and the multi-agent theory can effectively reduce the inventory cost of automobile reverse logistics. Besides, the sensitivity analysis certifies that the products recovery and remanufacturing have a great influence on the manufacturers, as well as the production and inventory of recycling centers. The cost of reverse logistics inventory can be reduced to a certain extent along with the improvement of products recovery and remanufacturing. What’s more, the collaborative analysis results of the two inventory control models show that compared to the total inventory cost when there is coordination only between manufacturers and recycling center, it decreased by11.8%and6.5%for one model,12.4%and6.5%for another one according to whether coordination exists between each node enterprise. Collaborative analysis demonstrate that coordinating the supply chain inventory control strategy of each node enterprises can help the whole supply chain inventory control achieve coordination and coherence, thus reducing inventory cost of the supply chain.Fifthly, in view of the automobile reverse logistics control system, performance evaluation system is established to measure and evaluate the effect of the inventory control system. It can judge the operation performances of automobile reverse inventory control, as well as providing the basis of the evaluation for seeking more effective inventory control method.Finally, in terms of the manufacturer, the recycling center, recyclers as well as the whole logistics system, a strategy aiming at reducing the inventory cost of reverse logistics system is put forward to control inventory cost and improve inventory coordination.The problem studied in this paper is mainly about the control of automobile reverse logistics inventory. To reach the purpose of making efforts to achieve optimal inventory costs, avoiding the demand and profit loss, better managing the whole reverse logistics system, promoting the resources recycling, it innovatively introduce multi-agent theory which provides theoretical basis and technical support for China’s automobile reverse logistics inventory control.更多还原