【作者】 刘志伟；

【导师】 李铁；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 城镇管理与区域规划， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 刘易斯转折点并不是一个新概念,但在特定的历史背景下,又往往产生新的问题。说它老,是因为自刘易斯1954年首次提出经典的二元经济发展模型以来,时至今日已有60年光阴；说它年轻,是因为国内每逢“民工荒”汹涌来袭,便引发关于中国刘易斯转折点研究的新一轮纷争。2014年3月16日,《国家新型城镇化规划(2014-2020年)》对外公布,6年内1亿农业转移劳动力进城落户的问题更是成为社会各界关注的焦点。在中国新型城镇化进程中,人口红利式微,人口转移问题复杂严峻,城乡差距悬殊均已经成为不争的事实。如何转变经济发展模式,突破现有瓶颈约束,实现农业劳动力的有序转移及城市化发展战略,是亟需面对和解决的命题。其实,以上问题的起点是刘易斯转折点研究,当传统二元经济理论对于中国现实问题未能作出合理解释时,如何寻求新的突破,并能有效解释现实,正是选题设计的初衷。本文围绕刘易斯转折点研究,设计出理论分析、实证检验及数值模拟三部分内容。理论部分首先对刘易斯转折点等核心概念进行清晰界定和重点分析,随后选择经典的二元经济模型为基础,对刘易斯转折点产生的假设前提、评判标准及运行机理进行了阐述和论证。研究表明,Minami法则的推导过程缜密、科学,是较为有效的检验标准。在理论分析基础上,进一步对中国刘易斯转折点进行实证检验,结果表明：2004-2008年间中国经济已经迎来刘易斯第一转折点,第二转折点尚未发生,目前正处于刘易斯转折区间内。利用超越对数生产函数模型及中国1980-2011年间21个省市样本数据,重点论证了农业部门与工业部门的工资差距变化趋势及两者间的关联性,研究发现：(1)部门间工资差异整体呈下降趋势,2004-2008年间降至历史最低,并趋于稳定；(2)农业部门的工资与其劳动边际生产力存在协整关系及Granger因果关系；(3)随着经济的发展,两者的相关性由弱变强,相关系数由0逐渐向1收敛；(4)农村剩余劳动力转移有助于边际生产力提高,同时也带来实际工资逐步上涨,但变量之间非同步变化,还没有达到完全相关。最后,运用一般均衡理论构建刘易斯转折点的演进路径模型,借助数值模拟技术对其运动轨迹进行预测。结果显示：(1)工业部门产出对刘易斯转折点的影响是正向的,现阶段及未来10年中国经济尚未形成真正意义的刘易斯转折点,工业部门产出的增加会加速转折点来临；(2)资本要素的影响类似于工业部门产出的影响,经济发展初期,物质资本影响较为显著,当发展到一定阶段,人力资本效应开始显现；(3)两部门效率差异对转折点的产生负向影响。本文的创新之处在于：第一,对刘易斯转折点理论进行全面和系统梳理。从转折点运转机理入手,通过评判标准、实际验证、模拟预测等步骤,对中国刘易斯转折点进行一次系统剖析,拓宽了研究视野。第二,计量方法和指标选取的创新。选用超越对数生产函数模型对农业投入要素的产出弹性进行估算,充分考虑到非中性技术、要素之间及要素与技术之间的影响作用,能够真实反映农业部门生产率及区域间的现实差异,增强结论的可靠性和说服力。第三,借助matlab软件模拟中国刘易斯转折点演进路径。将政策因素转化为参数变量,预测其发展轨迹,并对偏离原因给出合理解释及政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Though Lewis Turning-Point is not a new concept, new problems related to it may be created in the specific historical background. As to old, because there has been60years since Lewis issued this concept in his classic essay in1954for the first time; on the contrary, it seems young as the domestic surge of labor shortages stirs a new round of academic debate on Lewis Turning-Point in China. On March16,2014, the national new-type urbanization planning (2014-2020) announces that100million agricultural labors become urban residents in next6years.The news can always stir up another round of hot discussions on the Chinese mainland. In the process of urbanization, these problems such as reduce of China’s demographic dividend or labour migrantion or a wide gap between rural and urban areas, have become indisputable facts. The Chinese government must meet the challenges of restructuring the economy or breaking through the existing bottleneck, achieve the goal of labor migration orderly from rural area to urban area, and implement national urbanization development strategy. The research of Lewis Turning-Point is a starting point to all above, when the dual economy theory fails to make a reasonable explanation for the issues of China’s reality, this paper will bring breakthroughs and effectively explain these phenomena.Around the Lewis Turning-Point study, this paper includes theoretical analysis, empirical analysis and numerical simulation.The core and key concept of Lewis Turning-Point is clearly defined in the theory part, then I will analyse the dual economic model, assumptions, standards of Lewis Turning-Point and operation mechanism. The studies show that Minami law is a rigorous process and relatively effective testing standard.Based on theoretical analysis, the author carries on the empirical analysis and the results show: Chinese economy has arrived at the first Lewis Turning-Point between2004and2008, but the second Lewis Turning-Point does not occurred, it is currently in Lewis Turning-Point range. By using Trangslog production function model and the sample data from21provinces and cities between1980and2011, the thesis analyzes the wage gap between agriculture and industry sector and their correlation. The study also found that:(1) the gap of wages between two sectors was declining. This trend suddenly reached the lowest point from2004to2008, then tended to be stable;(2) there is a cointegration relationship between the agricultural sector wages and marginal productivity of labor, moreover Granger causality relationships has been found;(3) with the development of economy, the correlations of both side continue to strengthen, with the coefficient increases from0to1;(4) the transfer of rural surplus labor is benefit to rising marginal labor productivity, as well as bringing real wages of the industrial sector rising gradually, and asynchronous changes. Their relationships haven’t reached the stage of complete correlation.Based on above, I have constructed a model of Lewis Turning-Point evolution path based on the general equilibrium model, for forecasting its movement with the method of numerical simulation. Results show:(1) the output of industrial sector will influence Lewis Turning-Point positively, and the Chinese economy will not meet Lewis Turning-Point in the next10years, but an increase in industry output will accelerate the coming of Lewis turning point;(2) the influence of capital elements is similar to industry production, physical capitals have made positive effect obviously in the early stage of economic development, the effect of human capital begin to emerge when economic development reaching a certain stage;(3) the efficiency variance of two sectors is negative to the Lewis Turning-Point.The innovation of the thesis is mainly reflected in three aspects:Firstly, I make comprehensive and systematic discussion on the Lewis Turning-Point theory, such as the analysis on the operation mechanism of the Turning-Point, the evaluation standards, empirical tests, simulation prediction, and so on. These steps broaden the horizons and fields for the study of China’s Lewis Turning-Point. Secondly, I make an attempt at new research methods and various indicators to find solutions that people never would have considered. By trans-log production model, I estimate the output elasticity of agriculture labour, taking into full account the neutral between elements, technology effect, and the efficiency technology, which are useful to understand the productivity of the agricultural sector and geographic differences in China. So, the conclusion is more convictive than before. Finally, with the help of Matlab software and different parameters converted from policy changes, the model can simulate Lewis Turning-Point better in the evolution path of China. Especially, the paper explains the cause of deviation and puts forward some policy suggestions.更多还原