中国地方政府债务风险管理研究

【作者】 李敏；

【导师】 赵仑；

【作者基本信息】 首都经济贸易大学 ， 财政学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 政府债务风险问题是威胁世界经济的稳定与发展的重要因素。我国的政府债务风险主要表现为地方政府债务风险。自2009年以来,我国的地方政府的债务风险引起了普遍担忧,2010年末我国地方政府债务规模达到10.7万亿元,而到2013年6月底债务规模达到近17.9万亿元,更有学者提出地方债问题与房地产泡沫将成为引发我国下一轮经济危机的主要推手。受到《预算法》的约束,地方政府不能通过发行债务的方式满足其融资需求,为解决财政支出不断增加,财政收入有限的问题,地方政府通过各种融资渠道筹措资金,形成的地方政府性债务规模不断扩大,在缺乏有效监管和偿还保证的情况下,形成了巨大的债务风险。地方政府性债务风险如果不加以治理将可能对我国的经济造成严重的影响。为研究地方政府债务风险管理,本文首先对我国目前地方政府债务总体情况、存在的风险和风险形成机理进行了全面梳理。我国的地方政府现有债务规模是经过多年累积形成的,特别是94年税制改革之后,由于地方财政支出责任的不断增加,地方政府性债务也出现了较快增长,特别是为了应对两次国际金融危机,地方政府债务出现了大规模增长。通过从债务规模、债务结构和债务管理等角度分析,我国地方政府性债务风险整体可控,但仍存在一定的风险隐患。从财政分权理论角度来分析,我国地方政府债务风险的形成是由于地方政府的财政收入不足以完成其支出责任；政府间财政关系缺乏法律的保障；财政体制和政府行政体制之间存在着矛盾。从公共选择理论角度分析,债务风险的形成是由于政府作为“经济人”的举债意愿被忽视；举债的决策机制缺乏有效约束；不同层级政府的利益诉求与权力分配存在矛盾。从委托代理理论角度分析,地方政府在与中央政府、社会公众以及金融机构等债权人的委托代理关系出现的问题导致了地方政府债务风险的产生。构建有效的债务风险管理体系,需要借鉴国际经验。本文首先研究了不同地方政府债务管理模式的特点,包括市场约束型、制度约束型、共同管理型、行政控制型四种模式。然后根据债务风险控制过程,分别从事前规则、事中监督、事后危机处理和破产机制三个方面进行梳理汇总各国的政策和措施,总结了各国风险管理的制度环境和市场环境。提出对我国地方政府债务风险管理的借鉴意义：如何构建有效的地方政府债务风险管理体系；完善债务风险管理的制度环境；培育有利于债务风险管理的市场环境。根据我国地方政府债务管理的现状,并借鉴国际经验,可以得出结论：为了防范和化解地方政府债务风险,应当建立健全地方政府债务管理体系,完善地方政府债务风险管理的制度环境和市场环境。地方政府债务风险管理体系包括债务风险管理机制、债务风险预警机制、债务偿债保证机制、债务化解机制、债务监督机制。地方政府债务风险管理的制度环境建设包括加强地方政府债务管理组织体系的建设,使地方政府债务管理法制化,进行政府会计制度改革,完善政府资产负债信息披露制度等。地方政府债务风险管理的市场环境建设包括建立完善的信用评级体系,增加地方政府债券保险服务。更多还原

【Abstract】 The risk of government debt is a latent danger to the stability and development of the world economy. The risk of China’s government debt consists in local government entirely. Since2009, China’s local government debt risk has caused widespread public ignorance, because the local government debt scale reached1.07billion by the end of2010. The scope is run up to1.79billion by late June2013. The views of economic crisis causing by local debt disk are made by some scholars vigorously. By the constraints of the Budget Law of China, the local government cannot meet their investment needs by issuing debt. In order to solve the problem of increasing fiscal expenditure, the local government financed loan growth by various funding sources, and the scale of local government debt is continually expanding. The lack of effective supervision and guarantee mechanism in the case of repayment has formed the tremendous debt risks. Local government debt risk will cause worst crisis on China’s economy without management.Devoting to the risk management of local government debt, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis on the total amount and the risk of local government debt, and the causes of the debts local governments incurred firstly. The accumulation of sub-national debt venture for many years, especially after the tax reform in1994, due to the ever-inereasing of local fiscal expenditure, hence, local government debt appears rapid growth. The scale of debt has soared in response to the two international financial crisises. The overall risk is controllable through the assessment of the scale, structure and management of debt, but there remain certain debt risks. By the analysis of fiscal decentralization theory, risk of Chinese local authorities debt is due to local government revenues are not enough to complete its expenditure responsibilities; the relation of state and local authorities lack the protection of legal; there is a contradiction between the financial system and government administration system. According to the perspective of public choice theory, the formation of the debt risk is grow out of the government as economic man debt will be ignored; the lack of effective decision-making mechanism of borrowing constraint; conflict of interests and power distribution of different levels of government. On the basis of the analysis of the principal-agent theory. the public and financial institutions and other creditors of the problem leads to the emergence of local government debt risk, following the principal-agent relationship in the central government and local government.The construction of the debt risk management system needs to draw lessons from international experience. This paper studies the characteristics of different modes on local government debt management from different countries. Four modes can be summed up which include the market constraints, institutional constraints, common management, and administrative control. According to the debt risk control process, we clean up and gather the various countries’policies and measures from three aspects including the prior rule, the matter of supervision, and the event handling mechanism after the crisis and the bankruptcy mechanism.The risk management of local government debt of our reference: how to build the management system of local government debt risk effectively; improve the system environment, debt risk management; cultivate the debt risk management market environment.According to the present situation of local government debt management in China and learning from international experience, we can draw the conclusions:in order to prevent and resolve the risks of local government debts, we shall establish and develope the local government debt management system, and consummate the system of local government debt risk management and the market environment. The local government debt risk management system including the debt risk management mechanism, debt risk early warning mechanism, debt repayment guarantee mechanism, and debt supervision mechanism. The construction of institutional environment of local government debt risk management including strengthening local government debt management organization system, the legal system of local government debt management, implementing the reform of government accounting system, improve the government’s asset liability system of information disclosure. The construction of the local government debt risk management market environment includes establishing perfect credit rating system, and increasing the service of local government bond insurance.更多还原