我国地方政府产业政策与地方产业转型研究

【作者】 康凌翔；

【导师】 邹昭晞；

【作者基本信息】 首都经济贸易大学 ， 产业经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国经济不断地增长，我国原来已经形成的低端制造业和资源耗费型产业结构已不能支持经济的可持续发展，不得不进行产业结构的转型升级，政府也将产业转型升级作为新时期的重要经济任务，那么政府的产业政策能否实现其目标呢？起码我们需要分析我国产业政策发挥作用的环境和机制。其实在我国经济发展的每个阶段，政府都通过产业政策对经济进行调节，但每次调节的效果并不是很好，其中一个重要的原因是由于我国转型体制下地方产业政策形成机制和企业行为所导致。改革开放后，我国各级政府之间进行了经济上的分权，使得各级政府具有了干预经济和参与市场交易的双重自主权，也使各级政府成为具有自身利益追求的利益主体，从而地方政府就会根据自身利益的需要来制定和执行地方产业政策，于是地方产业政策、企业的市场行为和地方政府与企业之间的利益依赖和约束共同决定着地方产业政策的选择和产业转型升级的结果，本文正是基于这种相互作用关系来分析我国产业转型升级的效果。首先，我们分析企业自身参与产业转型升级的行为选择。产业的转型升级最终都是依靠一个个企业经营内容的转变来实现的，在市场机制下，企业是否参与产业转型升级，参与到何种程度，都由企业自身利益的最大化来决定。我们把产业转型升级过程中存在的外部性、投资成本和风险、技术特征、阶段特征等影响因素结合起来，分析这些因素如何影响企业参与产业转型升级的行为选择和最终的产业转型升级效果。结论是：企业追求自身利益最大化的结果，产业转型升级不一定达到最优效果。然后，我们分析如果地方政府通过产业政策改变企业的成本或收益，企业参与产业转型升级的行为会发生怎样的改变，以及产业转型升级结果会发生怎样的改变。我们以不同的产业补贴和税收政策来代表产业政策的干预。结论是：合适的产业政策并且在产业转型升级的相应阶段正确运用，产业政策才能促进产业转型升级向最优结果靠近，否则，产业政策还有可能恶化产业转型升级的结果。进一步，我们分析地方政府会采取什么样的地方产业政策。从我国转型体制下地方政府及其官员的政治、经济利益追求作为分析的起点，解释地方经济社会条件的不同、地方政府所处任期阶段的不同、地方经济原有产业结构约束的不同等环境下，地方政府的产业政策偏好。结论是：地方政府总会以自身利益来选择地方产业政策，其结果是地方政府不一定以上级产业政策的要求或者产业转型升级的最优效果来选择产业政策。在以上分析的基础上，再把地方政府不同的产业政策选择与其对企业参与产业转型升级行为的影响结合起来，以解释我国产业转型升级的效果。这里采取对比分析的方式来分析问题，先对比有无地方政府产业政策干预下企业行为的不同，以揭示政府产业政策的干预会给不同情况下产业转型升级带来什么结果，再对比地方政府不同的产业政策选择导致产业转型升级的差异，以解释我国经济社会条件不同的地区，处于不同时期的地方经济，其产业转型升级效果上所存在的差异。结论是：经济社会条件较好的地方经济，产业转型升级效果更明显，也就是产业结构更高级，经济运行更健康。地方政府所处的任期阶段也会影响产业转型升级的效果，在任期初始阶段，产业转型升级的基础建设会好一些，后期基础建设会差一些。地方原有的产业结构也一定程度影响产业转型的效果，但这种影响程度取决于地方经济社会条件。最后，以工业污染治理为例，通过实际经济数据对以上的分析进行检验，我们把工业污染治理看做对地方经济产业转型升级的要求，以地方人均财政收入代表地方经济社会条件的差别，以地方工业占地方GDP比重代表地方原有的产业结构。实证检验的结果基本与论文的分析过程和结论相一致。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the economic growth continuously in our country, the low-level manufacturingand resource-consuming industrial structure formed in the past has not been able to supportour economy to developing sustainably, which makes us have to transform and upgrade theindustrial structure, and the government has take the transformation and upgrading ofindustrial structure as an important economic task in the new period, then the government’sindustrial policy can achieve the goal? This needs us to analysis our industrial policy’sworking mechanism and environment. In fact, in every stage of economic development inour country, the government all implemented the industry-development policy, but theeffects were not very good each time, one of the important reasons is the peculiar formingmechanism of our local industrial policy and enterprise’s behavior.As for the forming mechanism of our local industrial policy and enterprise’s behavior,our country has carried out the decentralization in economy among the variousgovernments as all levels, this made different local governments have doubledecision-making right interfering with economy and participating in market business, andalso made all local governments become the benefit individuals running for self-interest.From this, the local government comes to work out and carry out local industrial policyand choice the transaction mode with enterprises. As a resuit, this local industrial policyand enterprise’s behavior decide the effect of industrial transformation and upgrading.First, we analysis enterprise’s self-behavior participate in industrial transformationand upgrading. Because achievement of industrial transformation and upgrading dependson change of every enterprise’s operating contents, then if and to what degree enterpriseparticipates in industrial transformation and upgrading all depend on maximizing itsself-interest maximization. We combine the externality, capital cost and risk, technologycharacteristic and stage characteristic to analysis enterprises’ behavior choices and theeffect of industrial transformation and upgrading. Our conclusion is: enterprises’self-interest maximization lead to the effect of industrial transformation and upgradingbeing not necessarily the best.Then we analysis what change will happen for enterprise’s behavior and effect ofindustrial transformation and upgrading if local government change enterprise’s costs orrevenues through local industrial policy. We take different industrial subsidies and taxpolicy as industrial policy intervention. Our conclusion is: the proper industrial policycorrectly used in industrial transformation and upgrading of the corresponding phase canpromote industrial transformation and upgrading to be near the optimal result, otherwise, the effect of industrial transformation and upgrading is likely to get worse.Further, we analysis the local government will adopt what kind of local industrypolicies. We take local government and its officials’ pursuing their political and economicinterests in our system of transformation as the starting point to explain different economicand social conditions, the local government’s stage of tenure, the constraints of localoriginal industrial structure how to determine local government’s industrial policypreferences. Our conclusion is: owing to pursue its own interests, local government notnecessarily to select its industry policies according to the superior industrial policyrequirements or the optimal effect of industry transformation and upgrading.On the basis of the above analysis, we combine local government’s industrial policypreference and its impact on corporate behavior to explain the existing differences inindustrial transformation and upgrading in different regions and different developing stages.Our conclusion is: the better economic and social conditions are, the better the effect ofindustrial transformation and upgrading is, the more advanced industrial structure is, andthe more effective the economic operate. In addition, in the local government’s initial stageof tenure, the infrastructure industrial transformation and upgrading will be better, in thelate stage of tenure, infrastructure will be some poor. And the original industrial structurealso affects the effect of industrial transformation to a certain extent, but this effectdepends on the local economic and social conditions.Finally, we take industrial pollution treatment as an example to test the front analysis.Among them, the industrial pollution control is taken as industry transformation andupgrading of local economy, local finance income per capita is taken as local economicand social environments, the percentage of local industry is taken as the original industrialstructure. The empirical test results are basically consistent with the front analysis processand the conclusion.更多还原