【作者】 马跃；

【导师】 金凤德；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 对外贸易是一国的强国之道,是大国兴衰的晴雨表,更是大国角力的主战场。葡萄牙和西班牙在16世纪的崛起、荷兰在17世纪的兴盛、英国在18世纪成为世界工厂、美国在19世纪后期赶超英国并在20世纪中期以来称霸世界,德国、日本在第二次世界大战之后再次崛起……在这些大国的崛起过程中,对外贸易始终是促进经济发展的重要推动力；而贸易摩擦作为这一过程的反作用力,新兴国家经济发展得越快,所遭遇的贸易摩擦就越强烈。今天,中国的崛起已成不可逆转之势。作为世界上最大的发展中国家的中国的崛起意味着占世界五分之一的人口从此步入现代社会。这是历史上从未出现过的超大型国家的崛起。根据先驱们的研究结论,大国的对外依存度一般较低,然而中国却打破了这一常规。国际贸易对于中国的成长一直具有重要的战略意义。中国崛起之后,已经进入了国际经贸摩擦的多发期。如何理解、认识这些摩擦和由它带来的麻烦,怎样应对?已经成为中国经济持续、健康发展的关键。坦率地讲,对此,我们缺乏必要的思想理论准备,缺乏大国胸襟和大国战略思维,是亟待克服、解决的。本文认为,新兴大国崛起过程中贸易摩擦的产生与激化纵有多种原因,但归根结底,是由于新兴大国崛起所带来的国际分工和利益分配格局的巨大变化,源于国际秩序的变化,这是不可回避的。在大国崛起的过程中,一般都会经历贸易摩擦从弱到强、然后再次转弱的过程。在今天,伴随着中国的崛起,中国与贸易伙伴间的贸易摩擦正在不断增加。特别是受全球经济危机的影响,贸易保护主义势力重新抬头,面对这种情况,中国应该坚持“融入现存体系”的基本方针不动摇；对现存的国际贸易体系既要“接轨”,又要完善和提高；高举自由贸易的大旗,积极推动区域贸易合作的发展；并且对贸易摩擦的“三大对象”采取有区别的、针对性强的贸易战略和政策。本文的研究主要采用了两种方法：第一,历史方法与逻辑方法相结合。历史发展是逻辑分析的基础,逻辑联系是历史描述的依据,历史方法和逻辑方法相互渗透、相互补充；对于任何一门科学的研究,都不能单独地运用历史方法或者逻辑方法。因此,本文先从历史出发,考察大国崛起的例证,进而分析大国崛起过程中的贸易摩擦成因特殊性,并通过经验事实的解析去验证所论的科学性,力求做到历史与逻辑的统一第二,经济理论与政治理论相结合。国际贸易理论是分析对外贸易摩擦的依据,然而,在大国崛起的过程中,贸易摩擦不仅源于经济原因,还出于政治原因。因此,对大国崛起过程中对外贸易摩擦的探寻需要将政治理论和经济理论相结合,缺少任何一方面都会使分析陷入片面。本文共分为7章。第1章为导论。第2章是对大国兴衰历史的简要回顾。以公元1500年为起点,介绍了历史上九个大国的崛起的轨迹,对大国崛起的道路和方式、成功经验、衰落和挫败的原因进行总结。第3章对大国崛起的理论和国际贸易摩擦理论分别进行了梳理,并对贸易摩擦理论进行拓展,用于分析新兴国家崛起条件下的国际贸易摩擦成因。第4章对国际贸易摩擦的形式、大国崛起背景下贸易摩擦的影响和生成原因进行了分析。重点研究了新兴大国与既存大国、与中小国家和与其他新兴大国之间贸易摩擦背后的经济、政治等诸多因素。第5章通过对大国崛起过程中贸易摩擦的经验事实考察,为大国崛起过程中如何应对贸易摩擦、制定贸易政策提供有益借鉴。第6章分析了中国的崛起及其对国际贸易摩擦的影响,并提出了中国的应对策略建议。第7章是对全文的总结。本文的创新主要体现在：第一,研究视角的创新。目前的国际贸易摩擦理论多是从单个视角对贸易摩擦背后的原因予以解释,而对于大国崛起过程中所遭遇的贸易摩擦又限于新兴大国与既存大国之间的矛盾冲突。本文站在国家利益的角度,对贸易摩擦的成因进行经济、政治以及外交的全方位分析,不仅分析了新兴大国与既存大国之间的贸易摩擦,也分析了新兴大国与中小国家、新兴大国与其他新兴大国之间的贸易摩擦。第二,观点的创新。将传统微观经济学理论应用于新兴大国对既存大国贸易摩擦的模型分析之中,提出了新兴大国的低价竞争优势模型。对中国崛起的过程进行了阶段划分,并勾勒出中国崛起过程中的贸易摩擦曲线。本文的不足主要体现在：第一,实证分析的不足。由于笔者知识结构以及精力、能力所限,对于贸易摩擦的分析尚处于起步阶段,因此论文中的实证研究部分较为简单,对于技术、生产规模以及其他变量的动态发展等问题还没有过多涉猎；第二,在对中国崛起过程中的对外贸易摩擦成因的分析中,缺乏理论分析,分析缺乏系统性。笔者决心在以后的研究中进一步完善和提高。更多还原

【Abstract】 For a great nation, foreign trade is road to persperity, a barometer for measuring the economic boost and weathering the decline, and an arena for competing with other great nations. Tracing the history of world development, we can clearly recognize that the rise of Portugal and Spain in the16th century, the prime of the Netherlands in the17th century, the so-called "world’s factory"of the United Kingdom in the18th century, the United States’overtaking the United Kingdom in the19th century and domination of the world in the20th century, the rapid revitalization of Germany and Japan in the second half of20th century... As long as trade exists, trade friction will persist. During all those courses, foreign trade has been an important driving force for promoting economic development in the rising of great powers, with trade friction working as the reaction force. The faster the economy of a great nation grows, the severer the trade friction it will suffer. However, for emerging great nations, the outbreak of trade frictions possesses a degree of peculiarity.Today, the rise of China as the largest developing country in the world has caught worldwide attention. It symbolizes that one-fifth of the global population has entered into the modern society. This is the rise of a super-sized nation, which has no precedent in history. According to the research conclusion of forerunners, the foreign trade dependence of large nations is generally low; however, China has broken the rule. With its rise, China has stepped onto the stage of intensified trade frictions. How should we perceive those trade frictions and problems they aroused? What measures we could take to tackle them down? Those questions are pivotal to the sustainable and healthy development of China’s ecnomy. Frankly speaking, we are not only short of necessary theoretical preparations, but also short of a "great nation mind", which needs immediate attention and solution.Not only do the sum involved and the occurrence frequency escalate, but trade frictions diversify into increasingly different forms, In addition to the usual forms of anti-dumping, countervailing and safeguard measures, trade barriers such as TBT (Technical Barriers to Trade), intellectual property infringement investigation, safety standards, environmental standards and certification of corporate social responsibility activities and many other different forms are growing everyday; and as if infected by develoed nations, an increasing number of developing nations are having trade frictions with China. China’s foreign trade is besieged by developed nations, developing nations, and other emerging great nations. And we can expect, with China’s rapid soar both in economic development and in the ranking of international powers, international trade friction will be a norm for China in the future, and even escalate.The dissertation hold, though there are various reasons for the trade frictions during the rise of great nations, the fundamental one is the dramatic changes in the inthernaitonal order, in the international division of labor and in profit distribution pattern brought about by the rise of emerging great nations. This is inevitable. On its rise, a great nation normally will experience the course of trade friction intensification and then attenuation. Today, accompaning the rise of China, China’s trade friction with its trading partners is accummulating up. Especially after the global economic crisis, the trade protectionism is resurging around the world. To cope with the situation, China should stick on to the principal of "to be integrated into the existing system"; adapts itself into the current international trade system while improves it; advocate free trade and actively involves in the further development of regional FTAs; and adopt differentiated trade strategies and policies towards the "three trading targets".The methodology employed in this dissertation is as follows. First, a combination of historical and logic studies is employed. Historical development is the basis for logical analysis, and logic relations should be in accord with historical description. The two are interrelated to and supplement each other. No science can use only one of the methods. Therefore, this dissertation will start from history to explore the examples of great nation rises. Then it will continue to analyze the special reasons for the formation of trade frictions during the rising of a great nation. By using historical facts to corroborate the correction of logic reasoning, the dissertication tries to unify historical and logic studies. Second, a combination of economic and political theories is utilized. International trade theories are the foundation for the analysis of foreign trade frictions. However, during the rise of great nations, trade frictions arise not only because of economic reasons, but also because of political reasons. In this sense, political theories and economic theories should be combined in the exploration of foreign trade friction during the rise of great nations. Lack of either one will make the analysis one-sided.The dissertation is divided into seven chapters. Chapter1is an introduction. Chapter2reviews the history in the rise of great powers. Taking1500AD as a starting point, the dissertation introduces the history of nine great nations-Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France, the United States, Russia, Germany and Japan. It summarizes their routes and methods of rise, successes and declines, as well as the failure cases. Chapter3reviews the theories for new-rise great nations and theories of international trade frictions respectively, and extends trade friction theories to inspect the unique reasons for trade frictions on rise of new great nations. Chapter4examines trade friction forms, influences and causes. The emphasis is on the economic, political and other causes behind trade frictions of an emerging great nation with existing great nations, with middle and small sized nations, and with other emerging great nations. Chapter5outlines the trade frictions during the rise of emerging great nations, which provides enlightment as how to handle trade fricitons and formulating trade policies for emerging great nations. Chapter6analyzes China’s rise and its impact on the international trade friction, and put forward some countermeasures. Chapter7is the conclusion of the whole paper.Innovations are reflected in two aspects. First, the research is conducted on innovative perspectives. The prevalent methodology for international trade friction study is to take one single perspective; and most studies are confined to trade conflicts between emerging and existing great nations. Standing on the altitude of national stakes, this dissertation gives a comprehensive analysis of economic, political and diplomatic causes for trade frictions. Not only does it analyze trade frictions for emerging with existing great nations, it also analyzes trade frictions with middle and small sized nations, and trade frictions with other emerging great nations. Second, innovative viewpoints are elaborated. It applies traditional micro-economic theories into the model of trade frictions between emerging great nations and existing ones. For labor-intensive industries, it presented a low-cost advantage model for emerging great nations. Also, it divided China’s rise into stages and plots a trade friction curve accordingly.The limitations of this dissertaton maily reflected in two aspects. First, the empirical analysis is insufficient. Because of the inadequate knowledge structure, energy and capabilities of the author, this dissertation represents a preliminary analysis of trade frictions. The empirical analysis involved is elementary, and many variables such as technique, production scale are not discussed. Second, when considering the causes for trade frictions during China’s rise, this dissertation is defective in theoretical analysis and systematic analysis. The author decides to improve them in her future studies.更多还原