【作者】 刘立军；

【导师】 刘恩专；

【作者基本信息】 天津财经大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2013， 博士

【副题名】基于H-K贸易三元分解方法的实证研究

【摘要】 美欧金融危机对经济的负面冲击及其在国际间地迅速传导,再一次引发了学界对国际经济周期协同性及其传导机制的研究。中国作为贸易大国,其经济运行经由贸易传导,与主要贸易伙伴国的周期协同性日益增强已经得到广泛认同。显然,在当今高度一体化的、波动中的世界经济环境下,探究经济周期与经济波动协同性的规律及其传导机制,对各国经济与贸易政策的调整无疑具有积极的指导意义。然而,以往研究大多运用总体贸易数据来分析国际经济周期协同性的贸易传导机制,没能深入总体贸易数据内部即从微观的企业或产品层面探究国际经济周期协同性的内在机理及深层次原因。贸易总量实际上包含了贸易产品种类、数量、价格(质量)等三元边际,它们相对比重及其增长速度的变化将导致贸易总量的变化,并进一步影响贸易伙伴国间的经济周期协同性。那么,如何将三元贸易边际纳入国际经济周期理论分析框架,从而考察不同贸易边际对国际经济周期的传导机制及其作用效果?与传统国际经济周期理论模型相比较,纳入贸易边际与出口成本的国际经济周期理论模型分析会产生哪些不同结论?其经济周期传导机制有何不同?如何深入总体贸易数据内部,应用产品层面的微观数据检验国际经济周期的贸易传导机制?这正是本文试图回答和阐释的问题。本文从理论证实了一个全新的国际经济周期协同性的贸易传导渠道——国际经济周期协同性的贸易边际传导。并基于改进的H-K贸易三元分解方法,在对中国与主要贸易伙伴国、东亚国家(地区)的经济周期协同性存在性事实进行判定的基础上,运用理论与实证、静态与动态相结合的分析方法,揭示了贸易广度边际、贸易数量边际与贸易价格边际对国际经济周期协同性的影响效果及其传导机制,从而在更深层次上揭示出新的国际分工环境下经济周期协同性贸易传导机制的性质与特征。本文共分为7章,各章主要内容和结论如下：第1章：导论。在这一章里,主要阐述本文的研究背景和研究意义,明确研究目的、内容以及研究方法,提出可能实现的创新点,对全文研究起到提纲挈领的作用。第2章：理论基础与文献综述。在这一章里,首先归纳、梳理全文研究涉及的理论基础,主要包括：经济周期理论、国际经济周期传导理论、异质性企业贸易理论。其次,分别从国际经济周期协同性、国际经济周期协同性的贸易传导、国际经济周期协同性的其它传导三个方面对相关研究文献进行梳理和综述并进行简要的评述。本章的主要目的是对贸易与国际经济周期协同性传导机制的相关研究进行全面把握,也为下面的理论与实证研究提供一个铺垫和理论依据。第3章：国际经济周期协同性的贸易传导理论模型分析。本章在经典国际经济周期理论模型的基本分析框架之上,借鉴Ghironi and Melitz (2005)和Alessandria and Choi (2007)构建的理论模型的有益成分,构建一个包含两国代表性消费者、异质性企业、内生进入与出口固定成本的国际经济周期理论模型。通过模型推导得出主要结论：提出经由内生的TFP实现的两国贸易与产出协同性的传导机制：(1)母国发生的积极的生产率冲击会产生需求——供给溢出效应。通过这种效应,本国最终产品生产者对外国中间品的需求会增加,因此使外国经济体的产出增加。这也就是传统国际实际经济周期理论模型中所呈现的一个传导渠道。(2)根据Kose and Yi (2006),这个渠道还不足以充分解释数据中所发现的贸易与产出的协同性关系。我们的模型提出另一个全新的贸易传导渠道,即通过贸易品的多样化以及贸易品中嵌入技术的提升提高贸易伙伴间的TFP协同性,进而提高两国的经济周期协同性。(3)基于上述传导机制提出两个理论命题：一、两国贸易品多样化程度(贸易广度边际)越高,两国经济周期协同性越高；二、贸易成本越低,两国经济周期协同性越高。第4章：经济周期协同性的测度与H-K贸易三元边际分解框架的构建。在这一章里,首先提出经济周期数据的生成以及经济周期协同性测度的不同方法并对其进行比较分析,为下面考察各国间经济周期协同性特征提供不同的方法与途径。其次,在归纳、比较不同层面的出口贸易边际的相关界定方法的基础上,提出H-K贸易三元边际分解框架,借此将一国的出口贸易份额分解为出口广度边际、出口数量边际与出口价格边际,并在此基础上构建类似于双边贸易强度指数的反映两国双边出口贸易边际的双边广度边际强度(BEI)、双边数量边际强度(BQI)以及双边价格边际强度(BPI)指数,为下文深入总体贸易数据内部,应用产品层面的微观贸易数据考察不同贸易边际对国际经济周期协同性的作用机制提供方法上的支撑。第5章：中外经济周期协同性的贸易传导的实证研究。本章以中国及其主要贸易伙伴为研究对象,实证考察国际经济周期协同性的贸易传导渠道。首先对中国与贸易伙伴国之间的经济周期协同性的存在性事实进行判断,得出中外经济周期存在一定程度的协同性的结论,为下文揭示其传导机制做好铺垫。其次,对经济周期协同性的一般贸易传导渠道(双边贸易强度、产业内贸易程度)进行再考察,发现双边贸易强度、产业内贸易程度对中外经济周期协同性具有显著正效应。最后,基于作者改进的H-K贸易三元分解方法,运用面板数据回归方法对各个贸易边际对中外经济周期协同性的影响进行实证检验,进一步证明了第3章提出的经由贸易广度边际的经济周期协同性传导机制的有效性。第6章：东亚国家的贸易边际与经济周期协同性研究。同样基于改进的H-K贸易三元分解方法,深入总体贸易数据内部,采集东亚各国(地区)的双边数据,分别考察了出口广度边际、价格边际与数量边际对东亚经济周期协同性的影响。结果表明：双边广度边际强度对东亚经济周期协同性具有显著正效应,是东亚各国(地区)经济周期协同性的主要贸易传导渠道,从而从多边视角证实了第3章中理论分析的结论。除此之外,实证研究还发现双边数量边际强度在一定程度上削弱了东亚经济周期协同性,双边价格边际强度的效应不显著。而产业结构相似度、金融结构相似度等非贸易因素在一定程度上促进了东亚经济周期协同。第7章为研究结论及研究展望。本文的创新点主要表现在以下三个方面：第一,国际经济周期的贸易传导机制的已有研究大多建立在传统贸易理论与新贸易理论的基础之上,针对以往该主题研究忽略企业异质性及其出口行为动态变化对国际经济周期影响的理论缺陷,运用异质性企业贸易理论最新成果,将企业异质性、固定进入、出口成本纳入国际经济周期理论分析框架,论证并推导贸易广度边际(贸易品的多样化)对国际经济周期协同性的传导机制,理论上有所拓展。第二,基于H-K贸易三元边际分解方法,借鉴Frankel and Rose (1998)中双边贸易强度的构造思想,构建了一个全新的衡量两国产品层面的双边贸易边际程度的双边贸易边际强度指数(双边广度边际强度指数、双边数量边际强度指数与双边价格边际强度指数),它较好地解决了测度指数兼顾贸易伙伴国之间双向出口贸易边际的问题,为深层次考察各个贸易边际对经济周期协同性的作用机制提供方法和技术上的有力支撑。第三,同以往应用总体贸易数据考察国际经济周期协同性的贸易传导机制不同,本文分别以中国及其贸易伙伴国、东亚国家为研究对象,应用产品层面的微观贸易数据,基于(笔者)改进的H-K方法,对贸易三元边际对国际经济周期协同性的传导机制及其作用效果进行经验分析,因而,在双边和区域层次上深刻揭示了新国际分工环境下经济周期协同性的贸易传导机制的性质与特征。更多还原

【Abstract】 The international transmission of the shock of financial crisis attracted the attention of economists of macro-economics. China as the biggest exporting country, its business cycle synchronization with its trading partners is obvious. Under the globalizing and shocking circumstance of world economy, it’s of great significance to study the conductive mechanism through which business cycle transmitted. However, most of the literature focus on the aggraded trade data and ignores the micro product level properties (different margins of trade). How to introduce the margins of trade into the framework of the international business cycle model so as to investigate the conductive mechanism? What’s the difference between the traditional and the new model? How to go deep into the aggregated trade data and further test the effects of different margins of trade on the business cycle synchronization? This dissertation is trying to answer these questions.We first document a brand new channel (extensive margins of trade) through with international business cycle synchronization transmitted in our theoretical analysis model. And then, based on the updated H-K’s Approach to Ternary Margins of Trade Decomposition and the typical facts of the business cycle synchronization between China and its trading partners, and between East Asian countries, we empirically test the conductive mechanism of business cycle synchronization through different margins of trade.This dissertation makes the corresponding discussion in7chapters, the main contents and the relative conclusions are as follows:Chapter1:Introduction. This chapter introduces the research background, the purpose and significance, the research idea and method, the content arrangement and the definition of concepts, which play as the role of outlining. Chapter2:Theoretical foundation and the related literature review. First, we review the corresponding theoretical foundation:theory of business cycle and international business cycle transmission and international trade theory of firm heterogeneity. And then we review the research literature from three aspects:the synchronization of international business cycle, the transmission of international business cycle synchronization through trade and other transmission approach. The main purpose of this chapter is to make the people have a deep understanding to the research of transmission of international business cycle synchronization through trade and provide a theoretical basis for the following theoretical and empirical research. Chapter3:The theoretical model of margins of trade and international transmission of business cycle. This chapter we develop a two-country model with a representative consumer and heterogeneous intermediate firms. Following Ghironi and Melitz (2005) and Alessandria and Choi (2007), we associate a firm with a unique variety of a differentiated good. We further find two channels strengthen the correlation of TFP growth rates between trading partners. The first channel is the traditional demand-supply spillover effect. And the second brand new channel is the international transmission through the extensive margin of trade which reinforcing the correlation of TFP growth rates between trading partners. Based on the transmission channel we make two propositions:the business cycle synchronization between trading partners increases with the more trading varieties and the less trading cost. Chapter4: Measurement of business cycle synchronization and the construction of H-K decomposition approach of three margins of trade (H-K approach for short). We first make a comparison of different methods of the generation of cyclical business cycle data and the measurement of business cycle synchronization. We then propose the H-K approach which decomposing the ratio of international trade into different margins:the extensive margin, the intensive margin, the quantity margin and the price margin. Chapter5:The empirical analysis of business cycle synchronization transmission through international trade for China and its main trading partners. This chapter analyzes the business cycle synchronization transmission through international trade for China and its main trading partners empirically. We first document the existence of business cycle synchronization between China and its main trading partners. Then we decompose the aggregate trade volume into three margins of trade by using the H-K approach, and further document the effect of margins of trade on the business cycle synchronization between China and its main trading partners. Chapter6:The empirical analysis of business cycle synchronization transmission through international trade for East Asian countries. Based on the H-K approach, this chapter we make use of the micro trade data from the product level to analyze the business cycle synchronization transmission through international trade for East Asian countries empirically. We find that the bilateral extensive margin of international trade has obvious positive effect on the business cycle synchronization between East Asian countries which corresponding to the theoretical conclusion; While the bilateral quantity margin has negative effect; the bilateral price margin has no obvious effect; other non-trade factors such as the similarity of industrial and financial structure has positive effects. Chapter7:Conclution and the prospect of research.The main findings and innovation points are in the following aspects:First, the existing study on the international business cycle synchronization transmission through trade almost based on the traditional and new trade theory and ignored the dynamics of heterogeneous firms and its effect on the business cycle synchronization. In our theoretical analysis, we introduce the main assumptions of firm heterogeneity trade theory into the existing analyzing framework of international business cycle and document the transmission channel through the extensive margin of trade.Second, based on the H-K approach, we construct a brand new index to measure the bilateral intensity of margins of international trade (the bilateral intensity of extensive, quantity and price margins of trade), which can take account to the two-way margins of trade between the trading partners.Third, different from previous literature using aggregate trade data to study the international business cycle synchronization transmission through trade, our study makes use of the H-K approach to go deep into the aggregate trade data and adopt trade data from the product level empirically investigate the effect of different margins of trade on the international business cycle synchronization.更多还原