【作者】 张炜；

【导师】 景维民；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 政治经济学， 2013， 博士

【副题名】兼论FDI对制度溢出的空间效应

【摘要】 近年来中国经济发展的一个特点表现为外资大量流入,伴随而来的是外资对我国现有制度产生了重要影响,这也成为学者们开始关注的一个问题。早先很多学者都对FDI的性质与作用及相关领域进行了大量的实证研究与理论分析,其中比较突出的几个领域包括FDI的区位选择理论、FDI的吸收能力及对东道国经济的影响。在这些研究中都会涉及FDI对一国技术进步产生的作用,却很少涉及FDI对一国制度变迁产生的影响,即使有所涉及也很少提及FDI对中国这一吸资大国在经济转型、制度变迁进程中所产生的影响。实际上对于中国这个转型大国而言,外资企业与国内企业在制度方面有着很大区别,引入外资意味着引进一种新的投资主体、新的企业制度、新的运营理念与新的资源配置方式。FDI作为一种新的制度安排进入我国,本身就是一种制度创新并且FDI在一定程度上取代了民营经济在中国制度变迁过程中所应起到的作用和所应扮演的角色,FDI这种制度安排必然会导致整个社会资源配置方式与社会局部制度的转变。同时,FDI作为一种包含着技术、制度、管理经验、先进理念、资金、资本等项目的“复合产品”,对东道国产生着多方面的影响,不仅停留在技术层面并且存在于在制度层面。FDI的大量涌入将成为我国迈向市场化经济制度转型所选择的一条特殊道路,以其特殊的性质与特点推动并影响着我国制度变迁。本文着重要解决长久以来对FDI的争议问题：FDI是否会影响我国制度变迁。如果会,那么FDI在我国经济转型过程中扮演怎样的角色,又是通过怎样的机制影响我国制度变迁的。在FDI影响制度变迁的过程中,对我国产生了怎样的趋势与特点。针对这些FDI进入我国后产生的种种问题与现象我们应该如何应对,未来的外资政策应该如何选择。本文主要采用理论分析与实证分析相结合、定性研究与定量分析相结合、过程分析与现状论述相结合的方法,最初梳理了国内外对FDI促进一国制度变迁的相关理论,并详细论述了FDI对我国制度变迁影响的理论基础。FDI进入我国后带来了新的制度模式,增加了制度创新收益,改变了原有的制度安排。通过促进市场制度、法律制度、非国有经济制度、金融制度与政府制度的传导机制影响我国制度变迁。本文根据各因素作用机制将此传导机制划分为两大效应分别为直接效应与间接效应和五大制度因素分别为市场制度、金融制度、非国有经济制度(这三大因素属于FDI影响的直接效应因素)、法律制度与政府职能和制度(这两大因素属于FDI影响的间接效应因素)。在分析完传导机制后对其进行实证检验,通过脉冲响应对FDI进入后对各制度因素的冲击影响进行模拟,并分析冲击时滞产生的时期及原因。同时,本文采用空间计量经济学中,考虑空间效应的空间滞后模型(SLM)对各省域制度指标进行估计,将距离因素考虑进来并赋予空间权重,使得衡量制度溢出效应更加精准。本文运用此方法衡量了一个地区FDI的进入对周边地区的影响效果及溢出效应,发现FDI促进我国制度变迁过程中产生制度溢出现象,且具有空间溢出性的特点,同时空间溢出性呈现出区域性特征。以往的研究很少将外资溢出效应的空间性考虑进来,在传导机制的过程中FDI对制度变迁的空间溢出性不容忽视。现代空间经济理论认为,当运输成本维持在一个较高水平时,各地区之间会由此形成较高的贸易壁垒并维持着自给自足的均衡。同时,外资制度溢出本质上是FDI的制度外部性,而制度的溢出路径遵循示范效应、竞争效应、联系效应和人力资本流动效应四种机制。因此,各地区间制度溢出路径有效性也会随着地理距离或溢出成本的增加而降低,这意味着在区域间跨国公司促进东道国制度变迁的过程中,邻近地区会比较远的地区更有可能形成制度溢出效应。可见,加入空间性的制度溢出研究使得成果更加细化、更具有现实意义。运用空间角度的分析方法可以清晰的了解到FDI进入我国以来对我国各省域间制度变迁产生的影响。本文最终通过逐层递进和具有逻辑性的研究得出结论与相应政策建议,并为未来外资发展提供导向。本文的研究思路与框架如下：第一章为引言。首先,从FDI进入我国的特征与作用入手,引出FDI促进我国制度变迁这一研究主题；其次,对中外学术界关于对FDI影响制度变迁的相关文献进行梳理与分析；再次,阐述论文的主要研究内容与方法；最后对文章研究思路和创新之处进行归纳总结。第二章为FDI促进制度变迁的相关理论回顾。分别对制度、制度变迁、FDI与FDI对制度变迁的相关理论进行梳理,然后就FDI在中国转型进程中的重要地位和所发挥的作用予以阐述,得出FDI影响我国制度变迁的影响机制,同时,进一步将文章研究中所涉及到的溢出理论与空间经济理论加以阐述与说明。第三章为FDI对我国制度变迁的传导机制分析。将FDI影响我国制度变迁过程中的影响机制因素分为直接效应与间接效应,其中FDI对我国制度因素影响的直接效应包括市场制度、金融制度、非国有经济制度,间接效应包括法律制度与政府制度。其后针对每一种制度因素的传导机制予以详尽论述,最终得出FDI影响我国制度变迁的整体传导机制。第四章为FDI对我国制度变迁传导机制的实证论述。通过格兰杰检验对FDI影响各制度变量的直接效应与间接效应予以验证,再通过脉冲响应函数对FDI一个冲击对各制度变量的具体影响趋势图进行验证,并得出相应的影响滞后期,最终以例证形式对先前理论论述加以整体实践论证。第五章为FDI促进我国制度变迁过程中溢出效应分析。FDI影响我国制度变迁的过程中,在微观层面产生了溢出效应。首先通过近几年各省分制度相关数据论证FDI溢出效应的存在与溢出程度,其后根据分析对FDI制度溢出效应在我国呈现的特点进一步加以论述与解释,其间针对溢出效应产生的空间性问题加以着重论证。第六章为相关政策建议,对如何进一步带动FDI促进我国制度变迁、增强FDI制度溢出性并解决其空间不均衡的问题给出了相应的政策建议,并对我国未来的外资政策给出相应合理选择。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, a feature of Chinese economic development is the performance of large inflows of foreign capital. Foreign investment has an important impact on our existing institutional system, which has become a matter of concern for scholars. Over30years of reform and opening up, China has made remarkable achievements in attracting foreign direct investment, and Chinese economy is in the process of transitional road to the international open world for smooth progress. Especially after Chinese accession to the WTO, Chinese foreign direct investment and institutional transformation entered into a new period of rapid development. Foreign direct investment is not only in the number of significantly enhance, but also the role and status of foreign investment has gradually been re-positioning.Earlier, many scholars used a lot of empirical and theoretical analysis to research the nature and effects of FDI. These studies will involve the role of FDI on technological progress of a country, and rarely involved the impact of FDI on a country’s institutional change. Even somewhat involved, they little referenced to the impact of FDI on Chinese which is a suction-owned large country in the economic transformation during the process of institutional change. For a transition country, the foreign-funded enterprises and domestic enterprises have a big difference in terms of institutional change process. The introduction of foreign investment means an introduction of a new subject, a new enterprise system and a new concept of operations and a new allocation of resources. FDI as a new institutional arrangement to enter our country, itself, is a kind of institutional innovation, and FDI plays the role of the private economy in the process of institutional change in China. While FDI this arrangement will inevitably lead to changes in the allocation of resources of the community as a whole with the social local system. FDI considered as the "composite products" including technology, systems, management experience, advanced concepts and capital has many effects which not only in the technical level but also in the institutional level on the host country. The influx of FDI will become a special road for our country towards a market-oriented economic institution transition, and FDI with its special nature and characteristics promotes and impacts Chinese institutional change.The paper aims to resolve the long-standing controversy on FDI:Whether FDI will affect Chinese institutional change. If so, then the FDI plays what role in Chinese economic transformation process, and through what mechanisms to impact institutional change. How trends and characteristics of FDI affects institutional change process in our country. How we should deal with problems and phenomena of FDI entering the country, and how to choose the future foreign policy.This paper used a combined method of theoretical research and empirical analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis, process analysis and status quo analysis. Initially the related theory of FDI promoting a country’s institutional change has been analyzed. FDI impacts the institutional change through transmission mechanism of market institution, legal institution, non-state-owned economic institution, financial institution and government institution. According to the mechanism of action of various factors, this paper divided the transmission mechanism into two main effects which were direct effect and indirect effect. Market institution, non-state-owned economic institution and financial institution belong to the direct effect, while legal institution and government institution belong to the indirect effect. After analyzing the transmission mechanism of its empirical test, this paper used a pulse response simulation of the impact of FDI on various institutional factors, and analyzed the impact delay period and its reasons. This paper used SLM of spatial econometrics to estimate the institutional indicators of different provinces, and gave distance factors space weights, which made the measurement system more accurate. Using this method, we can measure the regional spillover effects of FDI into surrounding area. So we found out that FDI generates spillover effects which has spatial feature during institutional process, meanwhile the spatial feature has regional characteristics.Few previous papers have researched FDI spillovers through spatial angle, but the spatial spillover effect can not be ignored. The modern spatial economic theory believes that when transportation costs are high, between the various regions, it will forming a higher trade barrier and maintains self-sufficiency balanced. The essentially of FDI spillover effect is institutional externality, and the institutional spillover path follows the demonstration effect, competition effect, four mechanisms of contact effect and human capital flow effects. Therefore, the effectiveness of institutional spillover path will decreases with increasing geographical distance or spill cost. This means that the neighbor areas are more likely to have institutional spillover effects than the far area during multinational companies to promote the host country institutional change process. It is not difficult to find out that Chinese inter-regional economic activity has a geographical characteristic, and adjacent areas are more likely to imitate multinational management institution and operational mechanism in order to improve its production efficiency through "demonstration effect", which results in inter-industry spatial spillover effects. For the quick and efficient logistics costs consideration, multinational companies usually select the surrounding enterprise as upstream suppliers and provide training, information and help, which results in inter-industry spatial spillover effects. If multinational’s employee turnover, they usually choose the adjacent domestic enterprises to work in order to take advantage of their skills which gained from former multinational company, which results in employee turnover spatial spillover effect. So adding a spatial spillover effect study makes the results more realistic. Putting the spillover effect under regional perspective makes the research more specific. The space angle analysis method can clearly understand that FDI impacts the institution of Chinese provinces inter-domain changes, which has practical significance and research value. This paper through layer-by-layer progressive and logical method reached a conclusion and appropriate policy recommendations for the future FDI development. Ideas with the framework of this study are as follows:The first chapter is an introduction. The relevant literatures on FDI impact of institutional change are discussed and the paper’s main research contents are outlined.The second chapter is a theory review for FDI to promote institutional change. The Related theories of institution, institutional Change, FDI and FDI promoting institutional change have been discussed. The role played by FDI in Chinese transitional process have also been discussed, which induce to institutional change affect mechanism affected by FDI. Also the spillover effect theory and spatial economic theory have been presented and descript.The third chapter is an analysis of institutional change conduction mechanism during FDI promoting process. The paper divided institutional change conduction mechanism into direct effect and indirect effect, and the direct effect includes market institution, non-state-owned economic institution and financial institution, however, the indirect effect includes legal institution and government institution. The paper detailed exposition for each institutional factors conduction mechanism, and eventually came to the overall institutional change conduction mechanism influenced by FDI.The fourth chapter is an empirical analysis of institutional change conduction mechanism during FDI promoting process. The paper verified direct effect and indirect effect through granger test, and verified a specific impact of FDI of each system variable impact trend graph by the impulse response function, and draw the appropriate lag. Finally, the ultimate example of the previous theory discourse the overall practice of argumentation.The fifth chapter is an analysis of the spillover effect during FDI promoting the institutional change process in China. During the process, it comes to the spillover effect at the micro level. Through latest institutional data analysis, the FDI spillover effect and spillover level have been demonstrated. Thereafter, according to the analysis of the spillover effects of FDI regime characteristics presented in our further discourse and interpretation, the spatial spillovers problem have been discussed.The sixth chapter is relevant policy recommendations. The paper gave appropriate policy recommendations on how to promote further process of FDI promoting institutional change in China, and on how to enhance FDI regime spillover effect, and on how to solve the problem of special disequilibrium in order to give our country future foreign policy choices.更多还原