【作者】 殷书炉；

【导师】 邱立成；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 世界经济， 2013， 博士

【副题名】基于中东欧转型国际和我国银行业的比较分析

【摘要】 银行业作为我国国民经济的枢纽与核心部门,其运行效率和稳定性直接关乎国家金融体系和宏观经济的平稳健康发展。面对日益复杂的经济环境,如何进一步增强仍处于转型期与监管尚不完善的银行体系的稳定性,已成为金融改革攻坚阶段中的关键问题。因此本文采用有微观基础的数学模型、面板Logit和系统广义矩估计GMM等计量模型,探讨与我国国情相似的中东欧转型国家金融开放过程中外资进入对银行绩效和稳定性的作用机理与影响效应,进而详细分析我国银行业对外开放过程中外资银行进入对我国银行业体系绩效和稳定性的影响,为银行监管部门制定适宜的监管政策,进一步深化银行业体制改革提供政策建议。(1)详细比较与我国国情相似的中东欧转型国家银行危机和我国银行业高风险的发展背景,阐述中东欧和我国的外资银行引入战略以及对本土银行业的影响,引申出后续研究命题。(2)通过分析中东欧转型国家金融开放过程中外资进入和制度变迁对银行危机的影响机理发现：在制度设计严重缺失的背景下,中东欧国家贸然引进外资会危及银行系统的稳定性,加剧银行危机的发生概率；但随其国内相关法律与监管措施的不断完善,外资银行进入对中东欧转型国家银行绩效的提升具有显著作用；金融过度开放将会导致银行体系对外资的高度依赖,在面临外生性冲击时,外资银行“传染效应”会导致中东欧国家银行业巨大的系统性风险。(3)通过分析外资银行进入对我国商业银行的绩效发现：当外资银行进入度超过临界点时,缘于竞争的加剧,我国银行不得不加大投入,导致其运营成本率提高；净息差收益率与外资银行进入之间呈现出倒U型关系,表现出明显的阈值效应；外资银行在进入之初就促进了我国银行税前利润率的下降。(4)引进境外战略投资者是中国银行业改革进程中的关键环节,在计算了不良贷款约束下的全要素生产率指数的基础上,对国内银行引进境外战略投资者的影响效应进行了分析,实证结果表明：随着境外战略投资者进入程度的加深,商业银行的全要素生产率和纯技术效率指数呈现先下降后上升的U型特征,这种特征不因银行的所有权性质而产生显著的差异。同时,我国商业银行的效率水平与境外战略投资者的持股时间成正比例发展关系。(5)金融开放与外资银行进入必然会放大一国银行业的潜在风险,对我国银行业的稳定性形成冲击。通过研究宏观经济发展与银行业监管水平与外资银行进入对商业银行体系的稳定性的交互作用发现：宏观经济发展水平和银行业监管水平对外资银行进入对我国银行体系稳定性影响有正向的促进作用；而外资银行进入对我国银行体系稳定性的影响存在着一定的阶段性。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the core sectors of the national economy, the efficiency and stability of the banking sector is directly related to the stable and healthy development of the macro-economic. In the background of transition and increasingly complex economic environment, how to further strengthen the stability of the banking system has become the key issues in the crucial stage of financial reform. This article uses the micro-based mathematical model, the panel probit and system GMM econometric model, explores the effect of foreign bank entry on the bank performance and stability during the transition process of financial liberalization of the Central and Eastern European countries, and then analyzes the effect of foreign bank entry on the bank performance and stability of China banking sector during the reform process and the development of regulatory policies, meanwhile, provides some policy advice to the banking regulatory authorities to further deepen the reform of the banking sector system.First, Comparative analyzes the background of banking crisis and high risk between Central and Eastern Europe transition countries and China, and elaborate the introduction of foreign banks and the impact on the Eastern Europe transition countries’s and China’s banking sector respectively, and then put forward to the following propositions.Secondly,The aim of this chapter is to obtain some conclusion to promote the reform of Chinese banking by analyzing the mechanism of foreign bank entry and bank crisis from the perspective of institutional change in Central and Eastern Europe transition countries. The paper finds the foreign bank entry increased the probability of bank crisis in the background of the defection in legal system. With the improvement of legal and financial regulatory system, foreign banks exerted a significant impact on promoting the performance of Central Eastern Europe countries’ banking. However, the financial liberalization led to Central Eastern Europe countries’banking excessively dependent on foreign capital, foreign banks brought the great risk to the banking system through the "contagion effect" when they encounter the external shocking. Thirdly, The aim of paper is to answer this question and provide the practical and theoretical value for the consequent reform of Chinese banks. We adopted a spatially disaggregated measure of foreign bank presence to analyze the impact of foreign bank entry on the performance of Chinese banks, the results are as follows: First, domestic banks expanded investment to cope with the stiff competition brought by foreign banks, leading to the increase in the rate of overhead to total asset; Second, there is a U-shaped relationship, a threshold effect, between foreign bank entry and net interest margins. Third, it found that there is a positive impact that foreign bank entry exerts on the pre-tax profits of Chinese commercial banks in the analytical period of sample.Fourthly, From the perspective of M&A, this charpter elaborates the relationship between the introduction of foreign strategic investors and the efficiency of China banking sector on the basis of the total factor productivity index calculated under the constraint of non-performing, it shows that there is U-shaped relationship between the introduction of foreign strategic investors and total factor productivity and pure technical efficiency of Chinese banks with different ownerships. Meanwhile, the holding time of Chinese banks by foreign strategic investors has a positive effect on the efficiency of Chinese commercial banks.Finally, Financial liberalization and foreign bank entry inevitably enlarge the potential risks of the banking sector, and then effect the stability of China’s banking system. This charpter focus on the interaction between the macro-economic development, the level of banking supervision and foreign bank entry on the stability of China banking sector, the results are as follows:macro-economic development and the level of banking supervision exert a positive effect on foreign banks entry to promot the stability of China banking sector; there is a U-shaped relationship between foreign bank entry and the stability of the banking sector.更多还原