【作者】 柯丽娜；

【导师】 周惠成；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 海洋,尤其是近岸海域是我国沿海地区经济社会实现可持续发展的重要载体和战略空间,沿海地区是我国人口最稠密、经济活动最为活跃的地区。随着沿海地区经济社会的快速发展,海洋生态系统正承受着巨大压力和影响。我国近岸海域资源、生态、环境承载能力十分有限,由人类活动引起的海域生态环境恶化问题日益突出,严重影响了沿海地区可持续发展。本文在对辽宁省近岸海域开发利用现状及环境影响问题综合分析的基础上,对辽宁省海岸带开发过程中涉及到的几个典型问题进行了研究,主要的研究内容及成果如下：(1)海水水质评价是海水水质环境要素优劣的综合概念,是一个多因素多水平耦合作用的复杂不确定系统,各评价指标含量具有中介过渡性,属于模糊概念。本文选取锦州湾附近海域作为近岸海域开发与环境影响问题研究的典型海域,首先开展了该海域水环境时空特征分析,并在此基础上提出了基于可变模糊集理论的海水水质评价模型方法,该模型通过可变模型参数变化(a,p),将线性模型与非线性模型相结合,以最稳定级别特征值作为海洋水质环境的最后评价结果,从而区分各水质采样点的水质优劣,确定水质评价等级,评价结果相对于BP神经网络模型、模糊综合评判模型、集对分析模型等方法具有更好的可靠性,更适合于多指标、多级别、非线性的海水环境质量综合评价。(2)利用数学模型评价方法进行水质评价十分必要,但其计算过程比较复杂,更需要利用GIS系统来实现评价过程的自动化、并借助图形展示评价结果,本文将可变模糊数学模型引入海水水质评价中,并结合GIS技术,采用ArcEngine集成开发技术,在Visual C#2008开发环境下,将可变模糊数学模型与GIS空间分析手段集成,建立基于ArcEngine的海水水质可变模糊评价系统。通过ArcSDE数据引擎和专用开发数据接口访问SQL Server中的海水水质评价空间数据库,实现海水水质空间分布状况的实时动态显示,并将该系统应用到锦州湾海水水质综合评价中,实现了锦州湾海域海水水质综合评价结果的直观、可视化显示,为控制环境污染、进行环境规划提供了科学依据。(3)针对锦州湾海域无机氮、活性磷酸盐、化学需氧量、铅、镉、锌等主要环境污染因子持续偏高的问题,本文通过两种方式建立了水环境容量的估算模型,一种是基于地理信息系统的水环境容量计算方法,通过GIS地统计分析对研究区域的污染物指标和水深数据离散插值,建立了基于GIS的水环境容量估算模型,这种方法在资料缺乏的情况下,作为水环境容量的一种初步计算方法,是十分简便、有效的。另一种是通过利用DHI MIKE模型建立锦州湾水动力-对流扩散模型,利用“干湿”边界条件模拟了潮起潮落时,海滩污染物浓度的变化,选用低潮时污染物混合影响范围最大情景作为环境容量计算工况,同时利用渤海的环境背景值作为锦州湾的污染物本底浓度,考虑了污染物的本底浓度对环境容量的影响,模拟了关键污染物的浓度响应系数场,然后利用分担率法耦合最优化线性规划法,计算得到海洋环境容量。两种不同的模型方法分别适用于不同的计算环境,为海洋环境监测、排污控制等环境管理信息系统中环境容量的计算提供了科学的参考依据。(4)根据海洋资源、生态环境的特点及与人类的社会关系,考虑沿海地区社会发展、海洋经济状况、海洋开发程度、海洋资源禀赋状态与海洋环境质量等等诸方面因素,构建了海洋资源生态和环境承载力评价指标体系,基于可变模糊集理论构建了辽宁省沿海城市海洋资源、生态和环境承载力计算方法,评估了辽宁省海域资源、生态、环境承载能力发展的总体状况,同时对未来海域承载能力发展趋势进行了系统动力模型预测,最后提出了辽宁省海域资源生态环境可持续发展的对策与建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The ocean, especially the nearshore areas, has become the key carrier and strategic space of sustainable development of economy and society for the coastal areas, which are the most densely populated and in which the economic activity is the most active. With the rapid development of economy and society of the coastal areas, ocean ecological system withstands the huge pressure. At the same time, the resources, ecology and environment carrying capacity of the nearshore areas in China are very limited, and thus human activities have seriously worsened the marine area ecological environment, which interfere the sustainable development of the coastal areas.This paper has performed related research on several typical issues involved in the process of exploiting the nearshore areas of Liaoning Province based on the comprehensive analysis of current situation and environmental influence of the exploitations and utilizations of the nearshore areas in Liaoning Province. The major contents and results of the research are as follows:(1)Seawater quality analysis, in fact, is a comprehensive concept of seawater quality condition, and is a complex and uncertain system where multifactor and multilevel couple,the index contents always show up as the obvious transition characteristic.This paper selects the nearshore areas of Jinzhou Bay as the typical marine area of the nearshore exploitation. Firstly, the paper introduced the spatial-temporal characteristics of water environment in Jinzhou Bay, and raised a new seawater quality evaluation model based on variable fuzzy set theory. With the changes of variable model parameters (a, p), this model combined the linear model with the non-linear one, and take the most stable level characteristic value as the final evaluation result of seawater environment which can accurately distinguish the differences of the seawater quality of the different sampling points, and then determined the water quality evaluation level, thus the seawater quality evaluation model based on variable fuzzy set theory is more accurate and reliable and is more appropriate for multi-index, multi-level and non-linear comprehensive evaluation of seawater environmental quality, compared with other similar models such as BP neural network, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, set pair analysis, etc.(2)Although it is very necessary to utilize the mathematical method to evaluate the seawater quality environment, the process of evaluation the seawater quality environment models is relatively complex. Therefore, this paper urged to demand GIS technology to execute the automation evaluation process and the display of evaluation result. This paper introduced variable fuzzy mathematical model into seawater quality evaluation. Relying on a GIS secondary development tool ArcEngine and in Visual C#2008development environment, this paper build a variable fuzzy evaluation system of seawater quality. By visiting geodatabase of seawater evaluation in SQL Server with ArcSDE and special development data interface, spatial distribution status of seawater quality can be displayed in a real-time and dynamic manner. Such system is introduced to execute the comprehensive evaluation of seawater quality in Jinzhou Bay. Therefore it provided a scientific basis for controlling environmental pollution and executing environmental planning.(3)Considering such issue that the amount of major pollution factors such as DIN, reactive phosphate, COD, Pb, Cd, Zn, and so on are high continuously, this paper established the estimation models of seawater environmental capacity by using the following two methods:one is based on GIS, which is executed by discretely interpolating pollutants and depth within the research area with geostatistical analysis interpolation model and parameter optimization model,this method is very simple and effective in the absence of actual data; another is executed by creating hydrodynamic-convection diffusion model with DHI MIKE model, by simulating the changes of the coast pollutant concentration when the tide rises and falls, by selecting the situation where the mixture of pollutants impacts the most when there is low tide as calculation condition of environment capacity, at the same time by using environmental background value of Bohai Sea as background concentration of pollutants of Jinzhou Bay, by simulating concentration response factor field of key pollutants considering the impact on environmental capacity for background concentration, and then by calculating and acquiring marine environmental capacity coupling sharing coefficient method with the most optimized linear planning method. Both methods are suitable for different occasions, which provided the scientific reference basis for the calculation of environmental capacity in environmental management information system such as monitoring marine environment, controlling pollution, etc.(4)According to the characteristics of marine resources and ecological environment as well as social relationships among human beings, considering social development, marine economic status, marine exploitation extent, marine resource endowment state, marine environment quality, and other factors, this paper established an evaluation index system of carrying capacity of ecology and environment of marine sources, created the calculating methods of marine resources and carrying capacity of ecology and environment of the coastal zone in Liaoning Province based on variable fuzzy set theory, evaluated the overall state of marine resources, ecology and environmental carrying capacity development of marine area of Liaoning Province, at the same time predicted the development trend of the coastal zone carrying capacity with system dynamics model, and finally raised the strategies and suggestions of resource and ecology sustainable development of the coastal zone of Liaoning Province.更多还原