【作者】 桂俊煜；

【导师】 张彩虹；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 本文分析了影响中国天然橡胶市场价格波动的因素,刻画了我国天然橡胶期货市场和现货市场、中国天然橡胶期货市场与国外天然橡胶期货市场价格的互动关系,并就天然橡胶期货市场建设和现货市场建设方面提出了改进的对策和措施。对影响我国天然橡胶现货市场价格因素的分析表明：我国天然橡胶现货价格具有一定的短周期性波动特征,国内橡胶价格的变动主要受进口价格和期货价格变动的影响,但价格的波动与国内橡胶供需缺口缺乏明显的相关性。另一方面,天然橡胶的成本因素对价格的影响是显著的,我国天然橡胶价格和原油期货价格也具有高度的一致性。对影响我国天然橡胶期货市场价格因素的分析表明：我国天然橡胶具有一定的短周期性波动特征,全球天然橡胶供求因素、货币政策、汇率政策是长期影响天然橡胶期货市场价格的根本性因素,而自然环境因素、政治因素则是引起天然橡胶期货市场价格短期波动的重要因素。对天然橡胶期货市场价格和现货市场价格关系的计量分析表明：我国天然橡胶期货期货市场价格与现货市场价格具有长期均衡关系,天然橡胶期货市场价格是现货市场价格的Granger原因,但期货市场对现货市场的影响大于现货市场对期货市场的影响。另外,我国天然橡胶期货期货市场与东京天然橡胶期货市场是长期均衡的,两个市场之间的价格具有双向引导关系,但我国市场对日本市场的影响大于日本市场对我国市场的影响；我国天然橡胶期货期货市场与泰国天然橡胶期货市场也存在长期均衡关系,且我国市场价格是泰国市场价格的Granger原因；研究还发现目前我国天然橡胶期货市场与新加坡天然橡胶期货市场长期没有均衡关系,但我国期货市场对新加坡期货市场的影响大于新加坡期货市场对我国期货市场的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper try to give China’s rubber futures market an empirical study on the factors which impact on China natural rubber prices, and the relationship of China natural rubber futures market and spot market. China natural rubber futures market and abroad rubber futures market. And propose suggestions and measures to further improve and perfect the natural rubber futures market and spot market.The analysis on endogenous and exogenous factors which impact on China natural rubber spot price shows that the prices fell for import prices and futures price, and there is an apparent lack of correlation between natural rubber spot price and supply-demand gap. On the other hand, the effect of cost factors is remarkable. The industrial policy of ANPRC has certainly had a pronounced effect on spot markets, especial stockpiling and price coalition in the short term.This paper also makes a statistical analysis on the influence factors of China natural rubber futures prices. The analysis shows that the supply and demand factors, monetary policy, exchange rate policy is the essential decisive factor and environment element and political factors are the important factor in the short term too.In this paper, the econometric analysis is used to analyze the relationship of the futures market futures market and spot market. This research found that the long-term equilibrium relationship between the China natural rubber futures market and spot market be found, futures market is the Granger reasons of spot market and China natural rubber spot market effects of futures market is larger than China natural rubber future market effects of spot market. On the other hand, the long-term equilibrium relationship between the China natural rubber futures market and Japan natural rubber futures market price be found, China natural rubber futures market is the Granger reasons of Japan natural rubber futures market, and the long-term equilibrium relationship between the China natural rubber futures market and Thailand natural rubber futures market price can be found too, China natural rubber futures market are the Granger reasons of Thailand natural rubber futures marke.更多还原