【作者】 蒋永宏；

【导师】 王厚双；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪70年代，美国开始转向新贸易保护主义，此后，这一贸易保护主义在美国不断发展和加强，并对其国内经济产生了广泛的影响。2008年，全球主要经济体纷纷陷入第二次世界大战后的又一次经济危机。目前，经济增长的不稳定、不确定因素仍然很多，美国新贸易保护主义也会更加复杂，并对中国产生深远影响。国际贸易理论对保护贸易政策的研究主要以关税、配额、进口许可证等价格数量限制措施为主，分析论证实施上述贸易保护措施对进口国和出口国的消费者剩余、生产者剩余、经济福利、贸易条件等的影响，并形成了理论界普遍认同的研究方法和结论。随着关贸总协定不断加强对关税和配额等贸易保护手段的约束，以新型非关税措施为主的新贸易保护主义形成，并成为当下贸易保护的主流。但是，由于新型非关税壁垒的复杂性和隐蔽性，导致对新贸易保护主义经济影响的理论研究和实证研究相对滞后于新贸易保护主义的实践。美国是众多非关税措施的发轫者，新贸易保护主义对美国经济究竟产生了何种影响，使得美国一边垂涎于贸易自由化的好处，一边引领全球新贸易保护主义？基于上述现实需要和理论困惑，本文在对以往的研究成果和文献进行梳理的基础上，建立了新的研究框架，从理论和实证两方面，对美国新贸易保护主义的经济影响进行研究。从新贸易保护主义的理论入手，分析了美国新贸易保护主义的发展脉络和运行机制。在此基础上，利用Eviews和SPSS软件，从进口贸易、经济增长、就业等方面，分析了这种贸易保护对美国的经济影响。并进一步以技术性贸易壁垒为例，对经济影响进行度量。基于上述分析并结合实际，对后危机时期美国新贸易保护主义的调整方向进行判断，并最终提出中国的因应之策。全文共七章，各章主要内容如下：第一章，阐述了本文的研究背景和意义，对美国新贸易保护主义经济影响的相关研究成果进行简短评述，在此基础上勾勒出论文的基本结构、研究方法、预期的突破。第二章，首先对美国新贸易保护主义的内涵进行拓展。其次，针对现有支撑美国新贸易保护主义的理论做进一步的梳理和再思考。第三章，阐述美国新贸易保护主义的形成及发展背后的经济动因，分析美国新贸易保护主义演变的现实逻辑，对比分析各个阶段的政策手段选择，从而展现美国新贸易保护主义的特点。第四章，将美国新贸易保护主义置于美国的国家战略和经济目标的背景下，揭示了美国新贸易保护主义的运行机制和目标指向。第五章，选取1980-2012年美国进出口贸易、经济增长和失业率的数据，利用Eviews和SPSS软件做协整分析和因果检验，考量美国新贸易保护主义对美国经济的影响。第六章，利用Eviews软件，以新贸易保护主义的核心保护措施—技术性贸易壁垒为例，借助贸易引力模型，利用近年美国和主要贸易伙伴的统计数据来考察新贸易保护主义对美国进口贸易的影响，以此反映美国新贸易保护主义对美国经济的影响程度。第七章，阐述了研究美国新贸易保护主义经济影响的启示，并进一步提出中国应对美国新贸易保护主义的对策建议。研究表明：美国的新贸易保护主义政策限制了进口贸易的增长，从而对其国内经济增长、就业都带来了负面影响。从1980-2012年的数据分析结果来看。美国的新贸易保护主义抑制了其对外贸易对经济增长的正向作用，同时，也不利于解决国内就业问题，对控制失业率也产生了负面影响。以进口贸易和TBT来衡量，这种影响的取值为：美国TBT数量增加一个百分点将会引起美国进口减少0.2913个百分点。更多还原

【Abstract】 The United States transferred to New Trade Protectionism since1970s，the effectbecame wide with its expansion. In2008，international financial crisis broke，which is themost greatest since the Second World War. At present，there are many unstable factors inthe world economy，so the new protectionism will be more complicated and make greateffect on China.The Research on protective trade policy focuses on tariff，quota and license ofimport，etc，those theories analyzed the consumer surplus，supplier surplus，welfare andtrade terms of above measures，also economists had generally accepted about researchmethods and conclusions. With the restrain of GATT to traditional trade barriers，the newnon-tariff trade barriers became more and more popular. But due to the complexity andinvisibility，it is difficult to research the effect of new trade protectionism，so theoreticaland empirical study are all lagged than practiced. U.S. is the headstreams of manynon-tariff barriers. How did it affect economy in U.S.? What made U.S. face dilemmabetween free trade and trade protection?As the basis of the reality demand and theoretical puzzle，this dissertation attemptsto study the effect of new trade protectionism in U.S. both theoretical and empiricalanalysis. The dissertation analyzes the development and mechanism of new tradeprotectionism in U.S. Then it analyzes the effects of new trade protectionism from theaspects of import，economic growth and employment by Eviews and SPSS software，andso on. Especially，it measures the effecting degree of TBT (technical barrier to trade).Based on the result of analysis and reality，it proposes the directions and possibilities ofnew trade protectionism in U.S. during the post-crisis period. Finally，it put forwardscountermeasures of China. The dissertation comprises seven chapters. The main contentof each chapter is as follows.Chapter1introduces the purpose and background of the desertion，and reviews theprevious research，then states the framework，research method and innovations. Chapter2widens the definition of the new trade protectionism firstly. Secondly，it reviews thetheory about new trade protectionism. Chapter3elaborates the form and agents of new trade protectionism in U.S. and it analyzes the evolution and compares with differentstages，furthermore it shows their characteristics. Chapter4puts new trade protectionismunder the conditions of national strategy and economic aims and emerges the operatingmechanism and aims. Chapter5analyzes the effects of new trade protectionism from theaspects of import，economic growth and employment at the basis of data from1980to2012. Eviews and SPSS software are employed in the co-integration analysis and grangercausality test. Chapter6takes the TBT which is the most critical non-tariff barrier as anexample，in virtue of Trade Gravity model and Eviews software，to investigate the effecton import in U.S. Chapter7states the enlightenments of the research and put forwardscountermeasures of China.Conclusions are as follows: New trade protectionism of US restricted import trade,and had negative influences on domestic economic growth and employment. Theanalysis result of data1980to2012shows that foreign trade`s positive role in theeconomic growth is hindered. Significant trade protection decreases the economic growthand increases the unemployment rate. TBT quantity and import value are negative，import decreases0.2913%with the1%increase of TBT amount.更多还原