【作者】 张金英；

【导师】 石美遐；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 产业经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 低碳经济发展模式正以汹涌的势头取代高碳经济发展模式,从微观到宏观冲击整个社会经济系统。在低碳经济政策影响下,就业增长模式会否发生改变,就业结构优化升级的标准及方式会否发生改变,这需要进行新的理论诠释。本文的研究目标是对低碳经济政策的就业效应进行理论解析和实证检验。通过数学模型解析低碳经济政策影响就业量及就业结构的路径和结果,得出低碳经济政策就业效应的一般规律性结论；通过对中国实施低碳经济政策就业效应的现象解析和数据解析,得出在中国现阶段低碳经济政策就业效应的特殊结论,为制定低碳就业政策提供可行的建议。本文的主要研究内容和贡献为：第一,在一个集低碳经济理论、劳动经济理论、产业经济理论等多种理论为一体的框架下,从微观、中观及宏观三个层面分析了低碳经济政策就业效应的作用机理。在微观层面运用图形分别解析了约束型低碳经济政策手段和激励型低碳经济政策手段对企业劳动力需求的替代效应、成本效应及总体影响,并运用数学模型推理验证了图形解析的结论；运用数学模型分析了低碳经济政策的劳动力流动效应及人力资本效应。在中观层面分析了低碳经济政策对就业影响的价格效应。在宏观层面分析了低碳经济政策对就业影响的消费需求效应。第二,提出了C02结构偏离度概念,运用这一概念分析中国不同产业和地区二氧化碳排放与就业的关联,并按CO2结构偏离度差异对不同地区、不同产业实施低碳经济政策的就业效应进行了比较分析。第三,根据低碳经济政策就业效应的作用机理建立计量模型检验中国实施低碳经济政策对就业量及就业结构的整体影响,评价采用不同低碳经济政策手段对就业量及就业结构的影响。计量分析结果表明,总体而言,中国抑制能源消费量对就业量和就业结构均会产生负面影响,降低二氧化碳排放强度则有利于促进就业量增长和就业结构优化。不同低碳经济政策手段的就业效应存在差异,提高能源价格或者增加污染治理投资均会不同程度的减少就业量,增加污染治理投资不利优化就业结构,提高能源价格却会促进优化就业结构。本文基于对中国低碳经济政策就业效应实证分析的结论,借鉴英国和美国低碳就业政策的经验,构建了以政府为主导的,实现低碳与就业双重目标导向的低碳就业政策框架。更多还原

【Abstract】 Low carbon economic policies have potential micro and macro economic impact on enterprises, consumers, jobs and GDP. Will the low carbon economic policies influence the employment growth pattern and the employment structure optimization? This issue is deserved to make a thorough inquiry.For finding the general rule of the employment effect of low carbon economic policy, this paper decomposes the path and results that low carbon economic policies affect the amount and structure of employment by mathematic method. This paper also aims to find the special rule of the employment effect of low carbon economic policy in China by empirical test, and provide feasible suggestion for promoting employment through the implementation of low carbon economic policies.Main contents and contributions are as follows:Firstly, this paper uses a collection of low carbon economy theory, labor economic theory, industrial economic theory and other related theories. This paper analyzes the mechanism that low carbon economic policies influence labor supply, labor demand and employment structure from micro, meso and macro perspectives. From the micro perspective, the labor demand effect of restrictive low carbon economy policies and incentive low carbon economy policies are decomposed into substitution effect and cost effect. Labor flow-on effect and human capital effect are also analyzed from the micro perspective. Price effect and consumption demand effect are analyzed respectively from the meso and macro perspectives.Secondly, this paper puts forward the concept of CO2structure deviation. According to the size of the CO2structure deviation in different areas and industries, the employment effects of different low carbon economic policy instruments are evaluated by empirical test.Thirdly, econometric analysis shows that different low carbon economic policy instruments have different effects on employment. Raising energy prices or increasing pollution control investment will reduce employment. Increasing pollution control investment is unfavorable for optimizing the employment structure, but raising energy prices will not adversely affect the optimization of employment structure. Improving new energy consumption ratio will promote the secondary and tertiary industries employment growth and promote the employment structure optimization. Overall, China’s efforts to restrain the energy consumption can produce negative effects on employment and employment structure, however, reducing carbon dioxide emissions intensity is helpful for promoting employment growth and employment structure optimization.Based on the conclusion from empirical analysis and the low carbon employment policy experiences from Britain and the United States, this paper suggests to construct a government leading and dual goal oriented low carbon employment policy framework.更多还原