【作者】 王欣；

【导师】 贾元华；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 系统工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 科学技术是经济增长的重要动力已经成为世界各国的普遍共识。科技创新能力是影响一个国家或地区经济社会可持续发展能力的重要因素之一。依靠科技创新提升国家的综合国力和核心竞争力,建立国家创新体系,走创新型国家之路,已成为许多国家政府的共同选择。国家科技计划项目作为政府科技投入的主要形式,是政府按照国家目标调动科技资源、引导科技活动走向、落实科技发展战略的重要手段,在创新型国家建设进程中的重要程度与日俱增,在推动科技进步、促进经济发展与满足社会公共需求等方面发挥着日益显著的作用。国家科技计划项目投入大、涉及范围广、社会影响深、风险程度高,同时具有一定的共性,对其进行风险管理是一项重要、紧迫、意义重大的任务。本文以信息不对称理论为研究基础,从国家科技计划项目中的信息不对称问题出发,综合应用系统科学、博弈论、制度经济学、科学学、技术创新等相关理论,以及现代项目管理方法,理论联系实际,对国家科技计划项目的风险管理问题进行了研究。本文的研究内容主要有：1、阐述国家科技计划项目的概念,对世界主要发达国家和具有代表性国家的科技计划体系特点进行分析总结,对我国国家科技计划体系的形成和演化过程进行梳理；从项目特性和组织管理模式特性两个方面深入剖析国家科技计划项目的特点。2、系统分析国家科技计划项目涉及到的各行为主体之间在项目研究实施的不同阶段所存在的不对称信息以及由此产生的信息不对称问题,研究信息不对称理论对国家科技计划项目风险管理的适用性。3、建立基于信息不对称理论的国家科技计划项目风险分析理论框架,应用信息不对称理论中的相关原理、模型、方法对国家科技计划项目风险问题进行系统梳理、识别与分析。从不对称信息角度重点研究寻租风险、逆向选择风险、道德风险产生的原因、各行为主体之间的博弈关系。讨论寻租风险的治理和防范措施,建立防范逆向选择风险的信号甄别机制、防范道德风险的激励机制及针对团队管理中多代理人合作的激励机制。4、逐层解析国家科技计划项目中的多层委托代理关系结构,提出国家科技计划项目主体风险的概念,建立基于三层委托代理模型的主体风险评价指标体系,并应用BP神经网络模型算法进行实证分析研究。5、对国家科技计划项目中由不对称信息引起的科研失信问题进行管理,提出以科研投入产出效率为视角的科技信用评价思路及方法,建立评价指标体系,并应用数据包络分析法进行实证研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 It has become the general consensus of the world that Science and technology are important driving force of economic growth. The capacity of scientific and technological innovation is the important factor that affects a country’s or region’s economic and social sustainable development. It has become the common choice for many governments to enhance comprehensive national strength and core competitiveness, establish national innovation system, and take the road of innovation-oriented country relying on technological innovation. National S&T planned projects are the main form of government investment in science and technology. They are the important measures to mobilize the scientific resources in accordance with national goals, guide the direction of science and technology, and implement the scientific and technological development strategy. They play an increasingly significant role in promoting economic development and satisfying social needs. The risk management of national S&T planned projects is an important, urgent and significant task because of their huge investment, wide range, deep social impact and high degree of risk. From the problem of asymmetric information in the national S&T planned projects, this dissertation researches the risk management with system science, game theory, new institutional economics, science of science, technical innovation, and modern project management methods based on the asymmetric information theory.The main contents in this dissertation are listed as follows:1. This dissertation describes the concept of national S&T planned projects, analyzes and summaries S&T plan system features of some main countries, explains the process of China’s national S&T plan system formation and development, then analyzes the project characteristics and the modes of organization and management deeply.2. This dissertation points the asymmetric information in study stages among different main bodies of national S&T planned projects, analyzes the relevant problems, and researches the asymmetric information theory’s applicability to risk management of national S&T planned projects.3. The theoretical framework has been set up based on the asymmetric information theory. This dissertation distinguishes and analyzes national S&T planned projects’risk problems applied principles and models of asymmetric information theory. The key of the study is the causes lead to rent-seeking risk, adverse selection, moral hazard and the game relationship among the various main bodies from the perspective of asymmetric information. In this dissertation, the measures to prevent rent-seeking risk are discussed, the signal screening model to prevent adverse selection is set up, the incentive mechanism to prevent moral hazard and applied to the multi-agent in the team are also set up.4. The multi-layer principal-agent structure in the national S&T planned projects is analyzed layer by layer. This dissertation proposes the concept of main body risk of the national S&T planned projects, sets up the risk evaluation index system based on three-layer principal-agent model, and makes empirical analysis by using BP neural network model.5. The behaviors of bad faith in national S&T planned projects due to asymmetric information should be managed. In order to do this, the dissertation proposes the theory and method to evaluate the S&T research reputation based on the S&T input and output efficiency, sets up the evaluation index system, and makes empirical analysis by using data envelopment analysis.更多还原