【作者】 邱玉慧；

【导师】 王彩波；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 政治学理论， 2013， 博士

【副题名】兼中国城镇职工基本养老保险制度的实证分析

【摘要】 社会养老保险代际公平不仅是经济学问题，还是分配正义问题。本文在代际正义理论框架下，梳理了当前有关社会养老保险代际公平的观点与改革争论，比较了自由至上主义、作为互惠的正义和作为公平的正义三种理论进路下的社会养老保险代际正义原则及其适用性，并提出基于需要满足的社会养老保险代际正义原则，采用海量微观数据对中国城镇职工基本养老保险制度进行了实证分析，并提供了代际公平改进建议。社会养老保险代际正义问题的核心是各出生代间贡献、收益与风险如何分配。有关社会养老保险代际公平及其模式改革的争论主要有两种立场。自由至上主义者及激进改革者认为，在人口老龄化等风险因素的影响下，当前各国普遍采用的现收现付养老保险模式已出现了可持续性危机和代际不公平，主张以“应得”原则和代际负担比相等的要求强化精算公平，建议转为基金制、名义账户制或采用更大比例的私人养老金制度。平等主义者认为，社会养老保险制度的代际公平不仅指可持续性和代际负担比相等，还应体现“需要”、“尊严”、社会团结与代际依赖，主张坚持现收现付并进行参数调整。我国城镇职工基本养老保险制度采用现收现付（统筹账户）与基金制（个人账户）相结合的模式，有关它的代际公平问题，学者们也有类似的争论。本文认为，社会养老保险制度的本质功能在于代际赡养和满足各代老年基本生活需要，这并不因养老保险模式的差异而改变。因此，养老保险代际公平的改进并不在于选择哪种制度模式，而在于世代间贡献、收益与风险如何正当、合理地分配。有关社会养老保险代际正义原则的讨论主要有三种理论进路。与自由至上主义相适应的代际正义原则是基于洛克条件的“各代自养”，强调“自由”、“权利”与“应得”的分配原则。作为互惠的正义也为自由至上主义立场提供了理论支持，把养老保险制度视为一种经济理性的契约，主张代际间等价互惠的原则，本质上也是“各代自养”与“应得”。而平等主义者则采用作为公平的正义理论，以罗尔斯的差别原则论证现收现付模式的正当性，主张应允许对那些最不利世代进行补偿。本文认为，人类代际赡养的本质和社会历史发展的客观规律决定了“各代自养”不可能实现，自由至上主义与作为互惠的正义不适用于养老保险代际情境；而平等主义基于差别原则的论证也没有成功地为养老保险代际正义提供正当性依据，但他们对代际赡养和代际风险共担的观点在一定程度上是有道理的。本文基于马克思主义和其他有关人的需要的理论，提出基于需要满足的社会养老保险代际正义原则，并阐释了该原则在社会养老保险现实情境中的具体要求。社会养老保险代际正义原则要求，各代都能在各自生命周期内获得老年基本生活需要的满足，为此，世代间的贡献与收益的不平等分配是正当的；但为了保持基金可持续性，以保证未来世代的老年基本生活需要的满足，也应遵循“应得”原则使贡献与收益大体平等分配。中国基本养老保险制度也应同时遵循“需要”与“应得”相结合的分配原则。基于此，为制度建立和转轨以前退休或参保的世代提供充足的养老金以满足其基本生活需要是正当的，但根据“应得”原则，由此而产生的历史债务应由政府承担；人口寿命延长的趋势下，提高退休年龄是必要且正当的，但生育率下降的成本则应基于“需要”原则在世代间共同分担；实践中存在的政策执行偏差损害了“应得”原则，应强化政策执行以增进基金可持续性。最后，依据需要满足的社会养老保险代际正义原则，采用全国多个典型地域的涉及1000万参保人员的海量微观数据，对中国基本养老保险制度进行了实证分析。结果显示：在不考虑未来养老金待遇调整的情况下保守测算，仅A省“老人”的已支付和待支付历史债务就达到2972.87亿，这虽满足了这些退休人员的基本生活需要，但损害了基金可持续性和代际公平；实践中普遍存在政策执行不力的现象，经济发达地区尤为严重，表现为单位缴费比例过低、缴费基数普遍偏低、实际退休年龄普遍偏低、部分人群缴费年限低于15年等，这人为地破坏了“应得”原则，也危害了未来世代的老年基本生活需要满足；基于缴费人员与退休人员年龄结构分布的分析表明，各地区制度赡养率及基金可持续性存在较大差异，沿海及经济发达地区明显好于经济欠发达地区，使各地的当前和未来世代的老年基本生活需要的满足存在差异。本文建议，应由政府偿还历史债务，但考虑到个人账户做实的财政压力和个人账户保值增值压力，不排除将个人账户转为DC名义账户制以争取一定的缓冲期；强化政策执行是当前改革的重中之重，特别是经济发达地区，重点在严格执行缴费比例、缴费基数、缴费年限和退休年龄等政策，避免和制止违规行为；人口老龄化趋势下，提高退休年龄是合理的，同时，基础养老金全国统筹是平衡各地基金可持续性差异的必要途径，但应首先取消各地政策差异，特别是取消经济发达地区的特殊政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Intergenerational equity of social old-age insurance is not only an economic issue,but also a distributive one. From intergenerational justice perpective, this dissertationdiscusses the debates on intergenerational equity of social olg-age insurance and itsreforms, compares three intergenerational justice principles of social old-age insuranceand their applications, which are repectively offered by theories of libertarianism,justice as reciprocity, and justice as fairness. Proposes an intergenerational justiceprinciple based on needs satisfaction. And by big data analysis on china’s basic old-ageinsurance system for urban employees, gives some suggestions for improvement.The main point of intergenerational justice of social olg-age insurance is how todistribute contributions，benefits and risks among corhorts. There are two main standsabout this issue and pension model reforms. Libertarians and radical reformers thinkthat with ageing influence the popular PAYG (Pay-as-you-go) model in many countrieshas shown sustainability crisis and intergerational inequity. They advate for principle of‘desert’ and equivalent ratio of benefits to contributions, and suggest actuary equity andtransition to FF (Fully funded), NDC (Nominal defined contribution), and more privatepensions. Egalitarians think that intergerational justice of social old age insurance notonly means sustainability and equivalent ratio of benefits to contributions, but alsomeans ‘need’,‘dignity’, social solidarity and intergerational interdependence. They suggest maintaining PAYG and adust parametes with in it. China’s basic old-ageinsurance system for urban employees combines PAYG (social pool account) and FF(personal account). The debates on its intergerational equity are similar with the debatesabove. This dissertation states that the essential function of social old-age insurance isintergenerational supporting and satisfying basic old-age needs of each cohort, which isthe same for all pension models. So the improvement of pension equity does not dependon model chices, but on how to distribute contributions，benefits and risks amongcorhorts justifiably and reasonbally.Three intergerational justice theories offer three intergerational justice principlesfor social old-age insurance. The principle from libertarianism is Lockean proviso,which requires each cohort supports itself, and claims ‘freedom’,‘rights’, and ‘desert’.The principle from justice as reciprocity also gives some reasons for libertarians’suggestions, which treats pension systems as economical and rational contracts, andclaims equivalent reciprocity between generations. This principle also means ultimatelyeach cohort supporting itself and ‘desert’. While egalitarians base their argument onjustice as fairness. They try to justify PAYG with difference principle of Rawls, andargue the justification of compensation to the worst off generations. This dissertationstates that each cohort supporting itself can not be realized because of the fact thathuman always support each other and the objective rules of social and historicaldevelopment. Therefore the principles from libertarianism and justice as reciprocity arenot sutible to pension intergeratinal cases. While the egalitarian argument from thedifference principle dose not either successfully offer justifiable bases forintergenerational justice of pensions, but their arguments on intergenerationalsupporting and risk sharing are convincing to some extent.Based on theories of human needs from Marxism and other theories, thisdissertation proposes an intergenerational justice principle based on needs satisfaction, and explains the specific requirements in real pension cases. This principle claims thateach cohort’s old-age basic needs within its lifecyle should be satisfied, and in order tosatisfy the needs unequal distribution of contributions and benefits between cohorts arejustified. While for sustainability and insuring the needs satisfaction of future cohorts,the principle of desert is also necessary to maintain contributions and benefits roughlyequal. Similarly China’s basic old-age insurance system for urban employees includes‘need’ and ‘desert’ at same time. According to the principles, it is justified to providesufficient pensions to satisfy the basic old-age needs of generations who had retired orjoined in before the system was set up or transformed; but according to the principle ofdesert, the historical debet caused by model transition should be paid by government.With the longevity risks, delaying compulsory pension age is the requirement from‘desert’, while the cost from low fertility risks should be shared between cohortsaccording to ‘needs’. The policy implementation diviations ruins the ‘desert’ principle,so strengthening policy implementation can helps pension sustainability.Finally according to intergenerational justice principle based on needs satisfaction,this dissertation gives an empirical study on China’s basic old-age insurance system byanalysis on big data from several typical areas, which covers nearly10millions people.The big data study shows that supposing pensions benefits would not increase in thefuture, the paid and unpaid historical pension debts of ‘old people’ who had retiredbefore1997in A province is297.287billion yuan. Although this helped to satisfy basicold-age needs of these generations, but harmed sustainability and intergenerationalequity. In practice lots of policy implementation deviations exist, especially indeveloped areas, which include actual social pool contributions and payment base lowerthan policy requirements, widely early retirement, and lots of people contributing lessthan15years. These deviations break the ‘desert’principle, and are harmful to satisfyingthe basic old-age needs of future generations. From an ayalsis on the age distribution of workers and pensioners, the dependency ratio of the pension system and itssustainability situations are different among areas, which are better in developed areasthan in underdeveloped areas. This dissertation suggests that the transitional debtsshould be paid by government, but considering the financial pressure to make personalaccounts solid and the risks of investment, transition from the personal account to NDCis possibly an alternative. The most important improvement should be on policyimplementation, especially for developed areas. Measures should be taken to strictlyprevent and stop the actions of breaking rules, and key measures should be on theimplementation of social pool contributions, payment base, contribution years andretirement age policies. In ageing trends, the current retirement age should be delayed,while at the same time the national pooling of basic pension is necessary to balance thedefferences of sustainability in different areas, but fistly the policy differences should becanceled, especially for developed areas.更多还原