【作者】 张淑杰；

【导师】 孙天华；

【作者基本信息】 河南农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 农业补贴是工业化、城市化过程中政府对农业激励政策的重要组成部分,补贴的总体目标是保证农产品有效供给,提高农业生产者收益,拉动农业的总体产出水平,促进农民持续增收,实现三次产业的协调发展。1978年以来,我国市场导向的改革首先从农业和农村开始。通过持续改革,尽管我国农业发展创造了世界奇迹,但是农民人均纯收入尤其是务农收入仍然很低,农民内部的收入差距呈逐渐扩大之势,而目未来粮食安全形势依然严峻。针对这些问题,国家农业补贴政策的且标也由传统上注重提高农业综合生产能力,转向更加注重保障农业生产者的收入。同时,农业补贴在提高农民群体的社会地位和福利水平、促进社会和谐、实现环境保护等方面同样具有重要意义,它所产生的微观经济效益和宏观社会效益与公共财政服务于经济、发挥矫正场失灵杠杆作用的理念完全一致。中国加入WTO以来,粮食供给基本实现自给自足,农业在国民经济中的基础地位更加稳固,而且依赖农业这一基础产业,强有力支撑中国国民经济实现了34年的持续、健康、快速发展。但是,中国人均耕地只有0.08公顷,进一步提高粮食综合生产能力面临着资源刚性约束和环境恶化挑战,单纯依靠农户内生发展动力和市场机制调控,难以保障国家粮食安全。因此,一方面要加大政府补贴力度,另一方面要注重农业补贴实施的方式和效果,真正使农业补贴在促进农业发展、增加农民收入、加快现代农业建设方面发挥有效作用。由此可见,根据中国加入WTO以来,国际农业发展形势的变化以及各国农业保护政策、贸易政策调整的新形势,有必要对世贸规则和发达国家有关农业补贴的理论和政策经验进行系统研究,并针对中国农业发展中而临的战略问题和粮食全全形势,对现有农业补贴政策的绩效进行评价,探究新阶段中国农业补贴政策的内涵、基本类型,具有重要意义。基于上述目标与思路,本文在对中国农业补贴政策演变历史进行分析的基础上,运用规范分析与实证分析、比较分析和关联分析相结合的方法,以相关概念界定为起点,从基础理论、实施效果、存在问题以及国际经验等妇女方面,对中国农业补贴政策进行研究。同时,以河南省作为典型案例,研究农业补贴政策形成的逻辑框架及运行机理,对农业补贴政策的效应进行验证,并提出调整和完善农业补贴政策的对策与建议。全文规划为九个部分,其中主要研究内容和结论如下第一部分：导论,主要介绍本文的研究背景、意义、研究内容、方法及主要创新之处。第二部分：在界定农业补贴的概念及国内农业支持政策类型的基础上,以农业弱质产业扶持论、农产品价格波动论、公共产品提供论、城乡反差协调论为指导,阐述我国必须强化农业生产补贴支持的原因；运用经济学分析工具,对我国农业补贴政策的福利经济效果及其对成本变化的影响进行剖析。研究表明,从福利经济学角度分析,我国粮食直接补贴政策符合卡尔多推进,而且对国家粮食安全和农民增收具有改进效果；从成本变化角度分析,无论是以良种补贴和农机具购置补贴为主的粮食生产性补贴,还是以粮食直接补贴和农资综合补贴为主的收入性补贴,均具有促进粮食增产效果。第三部分：从改革及政策演变视角,通过分析我国不同阶段出台的各项农业补贴政策的背景、目标,以及农业补贴政策的阶段性差异,归纳我国农业补贴政策的演变路径与规律。研究表明：一是中国农业补贴政策历经了三个阶段,即矫正“农业受损、工业受益”阶段,注重矫正“农民受损、城镇居民获益”阶段,以及注重矫正“以工支农,以城带乡,农民获益”阶段。二是三阶段的农业补贴政策目标存在较大的差异。第一阶段实施的是工农非均衡发展补贴政策,农业发展面临负补贴政策环境,城镇居民及涉农企业是补贴政策受益主体；第二阶段的农业补贴政策注重加快农产品市场化进程,但农民增收效果较小,城乡差距扩大；第三阶段侧重对农民进行直接补贴,对促进农民增收、推动农业可持续发展发挥了重要作用。三是中国农业补贴政策的演进逻辑及路径,与我国农业发展环境、宏观经济发展战略、社会经济环境的演进基本上是同步的,同时受到政府和农民的利益偏好契合度和博弈能力的影响。第四部分：以中国最重要的粮食主产区--河南省的农业补贴政策为例,运用统计分析方法和实地调研数据,评价我国农业补贴政策的效果。研究表明：一是种粮补贴促进了农民的种粮积极性,但粮食价格仍然是影响农民生产决策的重要因素,价格支持措施是当前促进粮食生产稳定发展的最有效措施；二是农民收入补贴对增加农民收入,特别是增加中低收入农户、低收入农户的收入有显著的正向影响,但总体来说贡献率较低,均低于6%;三是良种补贴对农户使用优质种子,增加粮食单产、改善质量具有积极效果；四是随着人工成本的持续增加,农机具购置补贴政策有助促进农业机械化水平尤其是粮食作物机械化水平的快速提高,一定程度上促使农业结构调整朝着有利于粮食作物的方向发展,且通过提供农机作业服务创收,能够有效促进农户收入持续增长。第五部分：基于新占典经济学分析框架,对农业补贴政策的粮食种植面积效应和产量效应进行理论分析的基础上,运用那拉维的适应性预期模型和C-D函数、河南实地调研数据,从微观维度对农业补贴政策进行绩效评价。研究表明：一是农业补贴政策对粮食种植面积和粮食产量的影响非常显著,即增加农业补贴数额对增加粮食种植面积和提高粮食产量都有直接作用,这为我国政府进一步优化农业补贴政策提供了实证依据；二是农业补贴政策能够有效地激励农户增加粮食种植面积和提高粮食生产的精细密集管理水平,提高粮食单产水平,进而达到保障国家粮食安全的政策目标；三是农业补贴政策的诱致性效果,激发了地方政府鼓励种粮的积极性,对整个粮食产业发展具有良好的政策导向效应。第六部分：围绕改进农业补贴对农民增收变动影响的分析框架,估计农业补贴政策对农民增收变动的方向、程度,从农民的微观视角对农业补贴政策的增收绩效进行评价。研究表明：一是农民家庭人均纯收入整体分布呈现向高收入倾斜的偏正态,农民内部农业收入和非农收入差距均显著：二是家庭人力资源、抵御农资成本涨幅能力和粮食价格谈判能力对农民增收的影响显著,而耕地规模优势对农民增收的影响并不突出；二是农业补贴资金增加、农业补贴范围扩大对农民家庭人均纯收入均具有正效应,且对高收入的农民产生更高的边际回报率。第七部分：阐述了农业补贴政策的经济学机理,从微观视角运用DEA+tobit模型对我国农业补贴政策的技术效率和规模效率以及其影响因素进行实证分析。结论如下：一、农户获得农业补贴的次数对政策效率有负的影响；二、亩均农业补贴水平在1%的显著性水平上对VRS有正的影响。对于农户而言,农业补贴的规模效率处于递增水平,补贴规模越大,越有利于促进农业补贴综合效率的提高；三、农户对目前农业补贴计算方式的评价对农业补贴技术效率有正的影响,且显著性水平较高；四、农民对农资价格的上涨反应对VRS技术效率的影响是通过传导机制实现的。第八部分：通过比较和分析美国、欧盟和日本农业补贴政策的演变及各阶段农业补贴政策制定、实施、效果和转变,为优化和完善我国农业补贴政策提供国际经验借鉴。研究表明：一是美国、欧盟和日本在实行农业补贴政策初期,国内的农业发展处于“幼稚”产业阶段,依靠农业自身的产业发展难以实现粮食安全和农民收入稳定。因此,此阶段,这些国家实施的是保护性的农业补贴政策;二是农业补贴政策需要随着农业发展的不同阶段逐步创新和完善,合理选择农业补贴工具和调整农业补贴的范围是各国在农业发展过程中考虑的重大经济、社会问题。第九部分：在以上分析的基础上,从五个方面提出改进中国农业补贴政策效果的建议：一是完善以保障粮食安全和主要农产品供给,以及农民增收为主要目标的农业补贴政策体系；二是构建以市场机制调整为主,行政调控为辅的农业补贴政策运行机制；三是采取以价格支持为基础,多项补贴有机结合的农业补贴政策综合配套措施；四是健全农业补贴的社会化服务体系,根据农户特征分类制定农业补贴政策及措施；五是推进农业补贴的法制化进程,完善农业补贴政策的管理和监督机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agricultural subsidy is an important part of agriculture incentive policy of government in the process of urbanization and industrialization. The overall goal of subsidies is to increase agricultural earnings, stimulating overall output level of agriculture and ensure effective supply of agricultural products, promoting continuously increasing of peasants’income, to realize the coordinated development of thrice industrial. Since1978, China’s market-oriented reform first began from agriculture and rural area. Through the continuous reform, although our agriculture development created the wonders in the world, per capita net income of peasants especially farming income is still low, and the income gap among peasants is gradually getting larger, so the food security situation still has a severe future. To solve this problem, China turns national agricultural subsidy goal from improving the agricultural production to promoting famers’ incomes. In a broad sense, agricultural subsidy has a great meaning in improving famers’social position and welfare levels, promoting social harmony, and implementing environmental protection, whose micro economy profit and macro social profit stay exactly the same as the leverage effect of public finance serving economy and correcting the market failure.Since china’s accession to the WTO, food supply has basically realized self-sufficiency, the basic position of agriculture in the national economy is more stable, and agricultural industry has supported the sustained rapid and sound development of the national economy in the past34years. BUT with only0.08hectare farmland per capita, China will face the challenge of resources constraints and environmental degradation to further improve the overall grain production capability. It’s difficult to guarantee the National food security if China only rely on endogenous development power of peasants and the market mechanism. Therefore, we must strengthen the government subsidies and at the same time pay attention to the way and the effect of implementation, in order to make sure it will effectively promoting agricultural development, increasing farmers’income, as well as accelerating modern agriculture construction. Thus it can be seen that according to the change of international agricultural situation since China’s accession to the WTO as well as the new situations of each country’s agricultural protection policy and trade policy adjustment, it is necessary for us to do some systematic research on the WTO rules, and the relevant theory and policy of agricultural subsidies in developed countries. It is also important to evaluate the performance of the existing agricultural subsidy policy, and to explore the connotation and type of Chinese agricultural subsidy policy in the new stage, in the light of strategic problems during the Chinese agriculture development and food security situation.Based on such a sense, this paper firstly analyzes China’s agriculture subsidies policy change. Taking relevant concept definition as a starting point, we made a deeply research on China’s subsidy policy in the aspects of basic theory, implementation effect and international experience by combining the normative analysis and the positive analysis, comparative analysis and correlation analysis. Meanwhile, we choose Henan Province as the typical case to study the logical frame and operation mechanism of China’s agricultural subsidy and make an empirical test on the policy efficiency. Finally, we come up with the countermeasures and suggestions on adjusting and improving the agricultural subsidy policy. This paper includes9parts, the main contents and conclusions are as follows:Part1:Introduction:To introduce background, meaning, contents, means and innovations of the research.Part2:After defining the agricultural subsidy and domestic agricultural support classification, we elaborate the economic reason for agricultural support based on Weak Agricultural Industry Supporting Theory, Agricultural Products Price Fluctuation Theory, Public Supply Theory and Urban and Rural Contrast Coordination Theory; then we use economic model to analyze the policy’s effect on peasants’welfare and production cost. The results are:China agricultural subsidy is efficient in food security, peasants’income improvement and match with Kaldor Improvement in the welfare extent. From the production cost viewpoint, both food production including subsidy to improved crop strains and subsidy to agricultural machinery, and income subsidy including direct grain-growing subsidy and comprehensive agricultural subsidies, make an positive effect on grain yield increase.Part3:This part analyses the background, policy target and the difference of China agricultural subsidy policy in different stages to conclude the evolvement path and rule. The conclusions are as following:1. China agricultural subsidy policy experienced three stages during the development process, which were correcting "Agricultural Loss, Industrial Benefit", correcting "Farmers Loss, Citizens Benefit", and correcting "industry support agriculture, cities drive rural area, famers get benefit".2. There are big target differences between three stages: The subsidy policy of the first stage is the non-balanced development of workers and peasants, during which agricultural development was facing negative subsidy policy environment, and citizens and agricultural enterprises were the main beneficiary. The subsidy policy of the second stage was to accelerate the marketalization process of agricultural products, but the effect of increasing peasant’s income was not obvious, and the gap between urban and rural area was getting larger. In the third stage, the policy focused on the direct subsidies on farmers, and it has an important effect on improving farmers’income and promoting sustainable development of agricultural.3. The evolution of China agricultural subsidy policy is synchronizing with the evolution of China’s agricultural development environment, national economic development strategy, and social-economic environment, and affected by the government and peasants’ preference and game power.Part4:Taking the main grain production zone (Henan Province) as the sample, we make a survey on agricultural subsidy using statistical analysis method and field survey data. The conclusions are as following:1. Agricultural subsidy encourages the farmers to plant grain and the grain price has a big effect on peasants’decision. Price support is the most efficiency tool to promote grain production.2. Income subsidy has positive influence on increasing income of farmers, especially those with low-middle-income or low-income. But the overall contribution rate is low, averagely less than6%.3. Superior seed subsidy contributes to prompting farmers to use high quality seed and improving grain yield and quality.4. With the improvement of labor cost, agricultural implements purchase subsidy improves the level of farm mechanization especially the mechanization of food crops. It also promotes agricultural structure to develop in a direction conducive to food crops to a certain extent, and effectively promotes the sustainable growth of farmers’income by providing service of agricultural machinery operation.Part5:Based on the neoclassical economics analysis framework, and the theoretical analysis on effect of grain acreage and yield of agricultural subsidy policy, we use Nerlove’s Adaptive Model, C-D function and survey data of Henan Province, to make performance evaluation on agricultural subsidy policy from micro dimensions. The conclusions are as following:1.agricultural subsidy has significant effect on the grain planting area and yield. Namely, increasing agricultural subsidies amount can directly enlarge grain planting area and improve the grain yield, which has provided a empirical support for improving agricultural subsidy policy.2. Agricultural subsidy policy can effectively encourage peasants to enlarge grain planting area, improve the fine and intensive management level and grain yield per hectare, and guarantee the national food security.3. Agricultural subsidy policy inspires the enthusiasm of the local government to encourage peasants growing food and has good policy guide on the development of grain industry.Part6:To estimate the direction and degree of agricultural subsidy policy that affect the farmers’income level, and to evaluate the performance of agricultural subsidies policy from the micro view of peasants, according to analysis framework of peasants income change affected by agricultural subsidy policy. Research shows that:The holistic distribution of per capita net income of a peasant family shows a high-income-inclined skewed normal distribution. The gap between Agricultural and non-agricultural income of peasants are significant;2. The manpower in a family, the ability to resisting the increase of agricultural material cost, and the ability of food price negotiation influence peasants’income obviously, but the advantage of cultivated land scale does not;3It has positive effect on increasing per capita net income of peasant families by increasing agricultural subsidies and expanding the scope of agricultural subsidies, and it offers more marginal return rate for the farmers with higher income.Part7:To expounds the economic principles of agricultural subsidy policy, and to analyze empirically on the technical efficiency, scale efficiency, and the influencing factors of China agricultural subsidies policy from the micro perspective by using DEA+tobit model. Conclusion is as follows:1. The number of times that peasants getting subsidies has a negative impact on policy efficiency;2. Agricultural subsidies of per unit of field has a positive impact on VRS with significant level of1%. For peasants, the scale efficiency of agricultural subsidies is keeping increasing, the wider the subsidies scale, the better for improving the comprehensive efficiency of agricultural subsidies;3. Peasants’evaluation on the calculation method of agricultural subsidies has a positive impact on the technical efficiency, and the significance level is higher;4. The influence of Peasants’reaction on increasing price of agricultural materials on VRS technical efficiency, is realized through the transmission mechanism.Part8:By comparing and analyzing the changing of agricultural subsidy policy in US, EU and Japan, we summarize the experience of them for our reference to improve our agricultural subsidy policy. The conclusions are as followed:1. During the early time of implementing agricultural subsidy policy in US, EU and Japan, domestic agricultural are in preliminary stage, which means it was very difficult for them to guarantee the food security and stable incoming of peasants. Thus the agricultural subsidy of them in this stage is protective.2. Agricultural subsidies policy needs to be innovated and improved gradually along with the agricultural development in different stages. To select reasonable agricultural subsidies tools and adjust agricultural subsidies range are the major economic and social problems that need to be considered in the process of agricultural development by all the countries.Part9:We come up with the five suggestions to improve China agricultural subsidy efficiency based on the above analysis:First, improving the agricultural subsidy policy system in order to ensure food security, agricultural products supply and the increase of peasants’income; Secondly, building a operating mechanism of agricultural subsidies policy with taking the market mechanism as the principal thing and supplying by administrative control; Thirdly, coordinated measures for agricultural subsidy policy would be build by taking the price support as the foundation and organically bonding a number of subsidies. Fourth, perfecting the social service system of agricultural subsidies, and establishing policies and measures of agricultural subsidies based on peasants’characteristics; Fifth, promoting the legalization process of agricultural subsidies, and improving the management and supervisory mechanisms of the agricultural subsidy policies.更多还原