【作者】 李德文；

【导师】 常心坦；

【作者基本信息】 西安科技大学 ， 安全技术及工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 随着全球城市化进程的加速，城市公共安全日渐突出，成为了公共安全管理研究的焦点和前沿。由于城市公共安全的极端复杂性，多年来的广泛研究在有效拓展对于公共安全的认知的同时，仍有许多重大课题尚待涉及。以西安火车站及其相连接的解放路商业圈区域为对象，分析城市复杂区域公共安全风险的评价与控制，力求加深对城市公共安全内在规律的认识，探索公共安全风险评价与控制研究成果的应用途径。提出宏观研究与微观研究相结合的城市复杂区域公共安全风险控制研究观点。采用作业危险性评价方法对火车站区域的安全状况进行调查统计及半定量的评价分析，得到该区域危险程度较高的区域为地下停车场及地下商场区域；采用全局调查和重点局部区域详细统计的方法对解放路商业圈区域火灾风险进行了调查统计，发现影响商业圈防火安全的重点区域为商场区、旅馆区、老旧社区及建筑工地，危险因素为安全疏散、火灾蔓延、消防扑救及消防安全管理，采用多级模糊综合评判法计算各重点区域的火灾风险等级，结果显示火灾风险最大的区域是商场区，最小的是建筑工地。提出以针对具体安全风险的定量分析为专家评判提供技术性支持的思路，通过模拟计算得到不同火灾和疏散条件下安全风险的定量数据。对火车站区域地下商场的局部模型进行火灾烟气及人员疏散模拟，结果表明在自动喷水灭火系统能有效启动，且防排烟系统的排烟量达到20000m3/h，补风量为排烟量的70%时人员能够安全疏散；在自动喷水灭火系统和机械排烟系统均有效的情况下，对华润万家超市货仓火灾进行了烟气流动及人员疏散的模拟，得出可用疏散时间为1200s，大于必需的疏散时间（400s），人员疏散安全的结果。以作业危险性评价结果为辅助分析火车站区域公共安全的影响因素，构建了包括36个指标的火车站区域公共安全评价指标体系，并以数值模拟结果为技术依据，采用层次分析法通过专家组评分的方式计算各指标的权重值及分值，完成火车站区域的公共安全风险评价，结果显示火车站区域系统分数为84.8，安全等级为B级。提出适用于城市复杂区域风险分析和隐患辨识的能流网络模型，并将该模型应用于火车站候车厅火灾场景，分析其损伤关系，给出包括消灭烟源、防烟垂壁、保持疏散秩序等具体的风险控制策略。将兵棋推演的思路和方法移植于城市公共安全重大事件应对策略分析之中，提出了定性与定量方法相结合的分析要点和分析流程。在此基础上，对于火车站及其周边商圈区域的风险预控及应急减灾措施提出了改进意见和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the speeding process of global urbanization, the issue of public safety in cities hasbeen drawing more and more attentions and sets foreland of researches in public safetymanagement. Due to the extreme complexity of urban safety issues, extensive efforts havebeen put into relevant researches in recent years and efficiently enrich the knowledge in thisfield, while many relating topics are still need to be explored. Being an importanttransportation hub in the country, Xi’an Railway Station is the front door of Xi’an city withmillions of travelers coming and going each year, thus its safety management becomes acritical issue. Researches on risk analysis and public safety assessment in a complicated urbanregion (Xi’an Railway Station and its ambient region) will be helpful for people to understandthe urban safety issues as well as to expand applications and practices based on the researchachievements.A combined way in studying public safety risk control of complicated urban region withmicrocosm and macrocosm is put forward.(1) With the influential factors of public safetymanagement in the railway station region being analyzed, the method of Job Risk Analysis isadopted to semi-quantitatively calculate the relevant job risks of this region, which set thebase for designing a proper index system of risk assessment. The results show that theunderground parking and underground commercial area are the hazardous areas.(2)Investigation and statistics data of fire risk are analyzed in business world of Jiefang roadregion. The results show that the shopping area, hotel area, old community and constructionsites are the main dangerous areas, and the major fire risk factors are safety evacuation, firespread, fire fighting and fire safety management. The multi-level fuzzy comprehensiveevaluation method is adopted to estimate the fire risk and the results show that the mostdangerous area is shopping area and the most safety area is construction sites. A new way of technical support of experts in making proper judgments with quantitativeanalysis of embodied safety risks is put forward. The thoughts of performance fire protectiondesign are adopted for the urban public safety analysis. Various fire scenario of commercialarea in the railway station square is designed for fire and evacuation simulation, withquantitative results under different scenario obtained, partially based on the achievements ofquantitative analysis, significances of all assessment indexes are determined through expertinvestigation and judgment with improved precision and consistency of the conclusionremarks given by experts being achieved, and the weak links in the fire protection andevacuation system can be more easily identified.Based on the special circumstances of public safety at the region, three groups of indexesare employed, including infrastructure system, routine management of public safety andemergency management of public safety, to build the risk assessment index system of publicsafety in this area. AHP is selected as the method of decision making and comprehensiveassessment. Relative importance between the indexes is verified, and the judging matrix ofindex importance is established, then AHP method is applied to determine the weights ofthese indexes in the assessment. Taking the characteristics and pattern of historic developmentof the public safety situation in the region, the rationality of index weights is verified and thekey factors of risk management of public safety are identified.Based on the risk assessment of public safety in the railway station region, the energyflow network model of accident-damage under complex conditions is put forward inconjunction with the energy flow concepts among damaging bodies and damaged bodies,which provides a powerful way of analysis to pin-point potential weakness and control risksin public safety. In strategy analysis of urban public safety events, the combination ofqualitative and quantitative methods is proposed based on War game. The prearranged riskcontrol and risk control in process in public safety management is systematically analyzed toserve as a guide for the consistent improvement of public safety management in the railwaystation region.更多还原